EURUSD Retraces; Goods Orders & Consumer Confidence Next

UK GDP revised lower y/y; OECD lowers outlook; German import prices fell; Spanish auction above target range. Market turns to durable goods orders; S&P Case Shiller HPI and CB consumer confidence.

EURUSD was unable to break above reaction high of 1.3008 that formed after a deal on Greek aid was struck yesterday. European equity indices are gaining about 0.3%.

UK Q3 GDP remained unrevised on quarterly basis at 1.0% but was revised lower to a 0.1% contraction from a previous flat reading y/y. Household consumption rose 0.6% in Q3 from -0.2% in Q2 which is the fastest pace since Q2 2010. GBPUSD trades around 1.6025 and EURGBP around 0,8080.

OECD lowered its US economic outlook for 2013 to 2.0% from 2.6%, Eurozone to -0.1% from 0.9% and world GDP to 3.4% from 4.2%. Main downside risks continue to include Eurozone crisis, risks to oil prices and US fiscal cliff.

Other data showed that German October import prices declined 0.6% from previous -0.7% and that Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose in October to 1.31 from 1.04.

Spain sold 3 and 6 month bills totaling EUR 4.087 bln vs. target 3-4 bln. Both average yields declined.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with durable goods orders that are expected to fall 0.6% in October after surging aircraft orders pushed the September's result to 9.8%. Core orders are seen declining by 0.6% from 2.0% growth. The FED chairman Bernanke delivers brief remarks at the National College Fed Challenge Finals but these are unlikely to move the markets.

S&P Case Shiller HPI at 9:00 am is expected to rise 2.9% in September from 2.0% and CB consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am is anticipated to rise to 73.1 in November from prior 72.2.

Patrik Urban