Market Awaits Core PCE; Chicago PMI And CAD GDP

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3697
November 30, 2012 07:53 ET :

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Eurozone CPI falls; EZ unemployment rate at new record high; German retail sales decline. Focus turns to core PCE; personal income and spending; Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP. 1 of 2 EURUSD longs hit all targets, the other awaits final target at marginally higher level. Both GBPUSD longs are in progress. 2 Gold longs were stopped out. See the rest below.

The greenback strengthened at the beginning of the London session. However, most gains were lost after the bundestag approved the Greek aid bill. European equities trade in narrow ranges and JPY lags.

Comments from ECB's Draghi and IMF's Lagarde did not provide any surprises and only reiterated supporting views on banking union, the ECB's banking supervisory role and the role of the OMT. However, an interesting comment came from German finance minister Wolfang Schaeuble who suggested that Greek default must be avoided as it could lead to the end of the Eurozone.

European data disappointed today. Eurozone CPI eased to 2.2% in November which is the lowest level since January 2011 and the unemployment rate ticked higher to a new record 11.7% from 11.6%. The unemployment rate has risen 12th times in a row. German retail sales dropped 2.8% in October after rising 0.5% in September and finally Italian unemployment rate rose yet again and reached 11.1% from 10.8%.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with FED's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE that is expected to remain steady in October at 1.7% y/y. Personal income is seen growing 0.2% from 0.4% and personal spending is anticipated unchanged.

Chicago PMI will flash on screens at 9:45 am and it is seen at 50.7 after two monthly sector contractions. By the end of the session at 5:00 pm the FOMC member Jeremy Stein will participate in a discussion on large scale asset purchases. Any surprising comments could impact trading on Monday morning. CAD traders await September GDP that is expected to grow 0.1% from -0.1% m/m and remain steady at 1.2% y/y. The report is due at 8:30 am.

USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY are all in progress, while silver and oil were stopped out. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the 3 volatility charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=696 NonSubscribers Can click here to join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Climbs Ahead of Revised US GDP

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3695
November 29, 2012 07:39 ET :

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Abe suggests easing till 2% CPI; European data improved and bested expectations; Swiss GDP higher; Italian auction. Market turns to US Final GDP revision, jobless claims and pending home sales. 1 of 2 EURUSD longs hit all targets, the other awaits final target at marginally higher level. Both GBPUSD longs are in progress. 2 Gold longs were stopped out. See the rest below.

USD eases across the board. European equities are gaining nearly 1% and the relative strength winner is EUR while AUD lags.

JPY fell lower at the during Asia after the LDP leader Shinzo Abe repeated that we would like to see the BOJ providing unlimited easing until the inflation reaches not 1% but 2%. USDJPY pushed back to 82.20s and EURJPY to 106.70.

European data surprised to the upside as Eurozone economic confidence rose in November to 85.7 from 84.3, UK CBI realized sales rose to 33 in November from previous 30 and German unemployment rose 5k from 19K in October. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.9%.

Swiss Q3 GDP bested expectations as it grew 0.6% from -0.1% q/q and surged 1.4% from 0.3% on annual basis. Private and public consumption along with exports of goods contributed to growth while the export of services and fixed investments had negative impact.

Italy sold 5 and 10 year BOTs totaling EUR 5.982 bln vs. EUR 4-6 bln target. Both average yields declined but cover weakened compared to the previous auction. The 10 year yield fell below 4.5% which is the lowest level in nearly two years.

The US session kicks off with second reading of Q3 GDP at 8:30 am ET that is expected to be revised sharply higher to 2.8% from 2.0% on annual basis. Jobless claims are seen falling to 392K from 410K and pending home sales at 10:00 am are anticipated to rise 0.9% in October from prior 0.3%.

USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY are all in progress, while silver and oil were stopped out. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the 3 volatility charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=696 NonSubscribers Can click here to join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban

Trhy čekají na HDP, EUR/USD blízko 1,3000

29.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je mírně slabší proti všem hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují téměř 1 % a relativně nejsilnější je euro (EUR) zatímco australský dolar (AUD) je nejslabší.

Japonský jen (JPY) oslabil v průběhu asijské obchodní seance poté, co lídr LDP Shinzo Abe zopakoval, že by Japonská centrální banka (Bank of Japan) měla uvolňovat dokud maloobchodní inflace nedosáhne ne jednoho, ale dvou procent. Měnový pár USD/JPY vzrostl zpět na 82,20 a EUR/JPY na 106,70.

Evropská data dnes předčila očekávání. Ekonomická důvěra za listopad v eurozóně vzrostla na 85,7 z 84,3, CBI prodeje ve Velké Británii dosáhly na 33 z 30 a německá nezaměstnanost stoupla jen o 5 tisíc po minulém růstu o 19 tisíc. Míra nezaměstnanosti ale i tak zůstala na 6,9 %.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trhy-cekaji-na-hdp-eurusd-blizko-13000.html

Patrik Urban

Řecký optimizmus se vytratil; Euro opět padá

28.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Optimizmus z uzavření řeckého jednání se vytratil, ale starosti týkající se amerického fiskálního útesu zůstaly. Společná evropská měna (EUR) tedy oslabuje a americký dolar (USD) je silnější proti všem hlavním měnám kromě japonského jenu (JPY). Evropské akciové trhy ztrácí kolem 0,4 %.

Viceguvernér britské centrální banky (Bank od England) Charles Bean, který bude ve své funkci o jeden rok déle dnes řekl, že britská ekonomika poroste "přinejlepším pomalu" a možná se za Q4 dokonce i zmenší. Dále také dodal, že pokračující nejistota omezuje efektivitu kvantitativního uvolňování (QE) a že další QE stále zůstává jednou z možností. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje kolem hranice 1,6000 s tendencí oslabování.

zbytek  zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/recky-optimizmus-se-vytratil-euro-opet-pada.html

Patrik Urban

Choppy FX Awaits US New Home Sales & Beige Book

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3693
November 28, 2012 07:43 ET :

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Dovish comments from BOE Bean; Spanish retail sales fell; solid Italian auction; Market focus is on new home sales, SNB Jordan and FOMC Tarullo speeches and FEDs Beige book. Will last nights new set of Premium Insights on GBPUSD prove to be on the money as were the prior 2 weeks? And why did we change the strategy in EURUSD? The latest edition also has 3 charts on EUR & Equity volatility. See more below in the bottom paragraph.

Optimism from the Greek deal disappeared while fiscal cliff worries continue to linger. The buck is stronger across the board except JPY. European equities are losing around 0.4%.

The BOE deputy governor Charles Bean who will, as we learnt yesterday, serve for one extra year said today that the UK economy will grow "weakly at best" and that a Q4 GDP decline is possible. He also added that the ongoing uncertainty limits QE effectiveness and that the BOE has not closed the door on further asset purchases.

The European data calendar was limited to Spanish retail sales that fell 9.7% y/y. German CPI for November will be announced right before the US session and analysts expect the inflation to ease to 2.0% from 2.1%.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold EUR 7.5 bln worth of 6 month bills. The average yield declined to the lowest level since 4/2010 at 0.919% from 1.347% and bid to cover improved to 1.65 from 1.52.

There are a number of risk events due during the US session today. New home sales at 10:00 am ET are expected to decline marginally in October to 387K from previous 389K. Crude oil inventories at 10:30 are seen higher at 0.5M barrels from last week's 1.5M barrels decline.

SNB chairman Thomas Jordan delivers a speech on monetary policy in Bern at 12:15 pm and the FOMC member Daniel Tarullo will begin his speech on regulation of foreign banking in New Haven at the same time.
At 2:00 pm the Federal Reserve will publish the Beige book. Analysts will seek comments on the impact of hurricane Sandy on industries along the east coast.

2 new trades on EURUSD, GBPUSD, 1 on USDJPY, 2 on EURJPY, 1 on AUDUSD, 1 on Gold and one existing, 2 new on silver and 2 existing in US crude oil. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the relevant charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=696 NonSubscribers Can click here to join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

-Patrik Urban

Britské 3Q HDP mezikvartálně roste o 1 %

27.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Měnový pár EUR/USD nebyl schopen překonat maximum 1,3008, kterého dosáhl po ohlášení dohody o pomoci Řecku a obchoduje se níž, kolem 1,2945. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují kolem 0,3 %.

HDP ve Velké Británii zůstal za Q3 mezikvartálně beze změny na 1,0 %, ale meziročně došlo ke snížení na -0,1 % z původního odhadu 0,0 %. Spotřeba domácností ale vzrostla o 0,6 % po 0,2 % pádu v Q2 což je nejrychlejší růst od Q2 1010. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje kolem 1,6020 a pár EUR/GBP kolem 0,8080.

OECD snížila výhled pro americkou ekonomiku v roce 2013 na 2,0 % z květnového odhadu 2,6 %. Eurozóna by měla zažít kontrakci 0,1 % z původního odhadu růstu o 0,9 % celosvětový HDP by měl růst pouze o 3,4 % namísto 4,2 %. Největšími vlivy, které by mohly snížit růst ještě dále jsou i nadále krize v eurozóně, fiskální útes v USA a také riziko vyšší ceny ropy.

zbytek zde:
 http://www.fxstreet.cz/britske-3q-hdp-mezikvartalne-roste-o-1.html

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Retraces; Goods Orders & Consumer Confidence Next

UK GDP revised lower y/y; OECD lowers outlook; German import prices fell; Spanish auction above target range. Market turns to durable goods orders; S&P Case Shiller HPI and CB consumer confidence.

EURUSD was unable to break above reaction high of 1.3008 that formed after a deal on Greek aid was struck yesterday. European equity indices are gaining about 0.3%.

UK Q3 GDP remained unrevised on quarterly basis at 1.0% but was revised lower to a 0.1% contraction from a previous flat reading y/y. Household consumption rose 0.6% in Q3 from -0.2% in Q2 which is the fastest pace since Q2 2010. GBPUSD trades around 1.6025 and EURGBP around 0,8080.

OECD lowered its US economic outlook for 2013 to 2.0% from 2.6%, Eurozone to -0.1% from 0.9% and world GDP to 3.4% from 4.2%. Main downside risks continue to include Eurozone crisis, risks to oil prices and US fiscal cliff.

Other data showed that German October import prices declined 0.6% from previous -0.7% and that Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose in October to 1.31 from 1.04.

Spain sold 3 and 6 month bills totaling EUR 4.087 bln vs. target 3-4 bln. Both average yields declined.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with durable goods orders that are expected to fall 0.6% in October after surging aircraft orders pushed the September's result to 9.8%. Core orders are seen declining by 0.6% from 2.0% growth. The FED chairman Bernanke delivers brief remarks at the National College Fed Challenge Finals but these are unlikely to move the markets.

S&P Case Shiller HPI at 9:00 am is expected to rise 2.9% in September from 2.0% and CB consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am is anticipated to rise to 73.1 in November from prior 72.2.

Patrik Urban

EUR Awaits Greece Above Key MAs

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3688
November 26, 2012 07:59 ET :

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BOJ minutes; EZ finance ministers meeting continues; Catalan separatists parties won; German GfK fell; Italian consumer confidence at all time lows. Markets discounting favourable decision on Greece tonight. EUR/USD regained the important 200-DMA and 55-DMAs in matter of 3 days. 6 trades from the Premium Insights hit all targets, 2 were stopped out. See more details below.

USD attempted to push higher at the beginning of the London session but it gave up all gains and currently trades slightly lower against all majors. European equities are losing around 0.5%.

The BOJ meeting minutes did not provide any surprise as they contained only the usual notes of continued powerful easing in light of a weak outlook. Despite the governor Shirakawa comments that the currency market can be influenced by easing until the inflation target is in sight, USDJPY declined from 82.50s to 81.92 and currently trades around 82.10.

Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels for the third time this month on Greek debt clearance. The goal is to agree on debt reduction and debt sustainability before the next tranche of the aid is delivered. Markets discounting favourable decision on Greece tonight.

Catalan separatist parties won regional elections but voters gave no clear message for their leaders as the Catalan president Artur Mas who called the election actually lost a number of seats in the regional parliament. As a consequence he will have to form an alliance with parties that have a different socioeconomic agenda.

The European data calendar was light, Eurozone GfK German consumer climate fell for December to 5.9 from previous 6.3 and Italian consumer confidence fell to all time low 84.8 in November from 86.2 in October. EURUSD trades not far from session highs around 1.2965.

There are no data reports due during the US session today. The only risk event is a speech given by the vice president of the ECB Vitor Constancio that is scheduled to begin at 9:00 am ET.

6 trades from the Premium Insights hit all targets, 2 were stopped out, 4 remain in progress and 3 were unfilled. 1 EURUSD short stopped out, while the long was unfilled. USDJPY in progress. Both GBPUSD hit all targets (two weeks in a row both cable longs hit their targets). AUDUSD long was unfilled (missed by 20 pips). 1 EURJPY long hit all targets, the other was unfilled. CADJPY long remains in progress, while both EURGBP finally hit all targets, which were in progress since Nov 14. One gold short stopped out, the other a new contingency long was filled and in progress. The long silver trade since Nov 7 finally hit its highest target of 33.90. The lone long in oil is in progress. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the relevant charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=695 NonSubscribers Can click here to join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban

FOREX: Týdenní videokomentář - FXstreet.cz

26.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku.

Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

EURUSD Regains 1.29; Canadian CPI Next

EU summit continues; German Ifo improves; UK mortgage approvals rose; Spain already prefunding 2013. Market turns to Canadian CPI.

The EU economic summit in Brussels continues today. Market participants still assume that the long term EU budget deal will be reached today but there was chatter that German chancellor Merkel suggested that she doubted an agreement would be reached today.

The common currency pushed higher after all the November Ifo results were above expectations and better than in October. The business climate rose to 101.4 from October's 100.0; the current assessment improved to 108.1 from 107.2 and the expectations sub index increased to 95.2 from 93.2. The final reading of German Q3 GDP was unrevised at 0.2% q/q and 0.4% y/y. EURUSD rose back above 1.29 and EURGBP moved nearly to 0.81.

In other news, UK mortgage approvals rose to 33K in October from previous 31.5K and S&P downgraded three Spanish banks and said that negative outlooks on banks reflects the likelihood of further sovereign downgrade.

According to MNI, EZ sovereign issuance so far this year totaled EUR 797.23 bln which is around 99.7% of the total needs. Belgium, Slovakia and Spain are now pre-funding for 2013.

The sole item on the data calendar for the US session is Canadian CPI that is due at 8:30 am ET and that is expected to slow to 1.0% in October from previous 1.2% on annual basis. Core inflation is seen at 1.2% from 1.3% y/y. Liquidity will be thin as US firms are operating on skeleton staff after yesterday's Thanksgiving holidays.

Patrik Urban

EU summit pokračuje; EURUSD nad 1,2900

23.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Evropský summit v Bruselu dnes pokračuje druhým dnem. Shoda týkající se dlouhodobého rozpočtu se sice všeobecně očekává, ale na trzích kolovala nepotvrzená slova kancléřky Merkelové, která údajně řekla, že pochybuje o tom, že k nějakému ujednání dojde již dnes.

Společná evropská měna (EUR) vůči americkému dolaru (USD) dnes posílila po výsledku listopadových Ifo indexů z Německa, které nejenom že předčily očekávání, ale také dosáhly na lepší hodnoty než v říjnu. Index podnikatelského prostředí se zvýšil na 101,4 z 100,0; index současné situace se zlepšil na 108,1 z 107,2 a index očekávání vzrostl na 95,2 z 93,2. Poslední výsledek německého HDP za Q3 zůstal bez revize na 0,2 % mezikvartálně a 0,4 % meziročně. Měnový pár EUR/USD se pohybuje kolem hranice 1,2900 a EUR/GBP je těsně pod úrovní 0,8100.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/eu-summit-pokracuje-eurusd-nad-12900.html

Patrik Urban

Další QE ve Velké Británii chtěl jediný člen MPC

21.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) se vůči americkému dolaru (USD) v průběhu asijské seance propadla přibližně o 90 pipů k 1,2735 poté, co Euroskupina ukončila jednání bez finálního rozhodnutí o řecké pomoci. Ministři financí eurozóny se opět setkají příští pondělí 26. listopadu.

I když se snažil šéf Euroskupiny Jean-Claude Juncker uklidnit trhy komentářem o tom, že jednání byla přerušena pouze kvůli technickým drobnostem, německý ministr financí Wolfgang Schäuble řekl, že co se týče finanční pomoci Řecku, mezi ministry financí nepanuje žádná shoda. I tak ale měnový pár EUR/USD posílil zpátky k hranici 1,2800, kde se i nadále obchoduje.

Zápis z posledního jednání komise Bank of England (tzv. MPC - Monetary Policy Committee) ukázal, že hlasování pro ponechání základní sazby na 0,5 % bylo jednohlasné. Hlasování o dalším uvolňování, ale ukázalo osm hlasů proti a jediný hlas pro. Ten patřil Davidovi Milesovi, který hlasoval pro další kvantitativní uvolňování (QE) v hodnotě 25 miliard GBP. Zápis dále ukázal, že komise pravděpodobně v blízké budoucnosti nesníží základní úrokovou sazbu. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje kolem 1,5910, přibližně 20 pipů pod dnešní maximální hodnotou.

Zbytek zde:

http://www.fxstreet.cz/dalsi-qe-ve-velke-britanii-chtel-jediny-clen-mpc.html

Patrik Urban

Euro Frozen on Greek Impasse, Jobless Claims Next

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3681
November 21, 2012 07:22 ET : 

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No decision from Eurogroup, next meeting on 11/26; MPC voted 9:0 on rates and 8:1 on QE; German auction. Market turns to jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI and UoM consumer confidence revision.Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see below the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side. 

The common currency dropped nearly 90 points during the Asian session after yet another Eurogroup meeting ended with no agreement on Greek aid. EZ finance ministers will meet again on Monday 11/26. Even though the Eurogroup head J. C. Juncker attempted to calm the markets by saying that the meeting was only interrupted to allow more technical work, German finance minister Schaeuble said there was no agreement among the finance ministers. Nevertheless, EURUSD recovered from 1.2735 to 1.2800

The minutes from the latest MPC meeting revealed unanimous voting to keep rates on hold at 0.5% but a 8:1 split regarding QE. Only David Miles voted for GBP 25 bln in further easing. The MPC noted that it is unlikely to cut the Bank rate in the foreseeable future. Public sector net borrowing declined in October to GBP 6.5 bln from September's GBP 9.9 bln. GBPUSD trades around 1.5910 which is about 20 points below session high.

The JPY continues to decline on anticipation of more aggressive monetary easing. The reported barrier at 82.00 was broken and the pair currently trades around 82.25

Germany allotted EUR 3.253 bln of 10 year bund vs. EUR 4 bln target. The average yield declined to 1.4% vs. previous 1.56% and cover was unchanged at 1.5.

Because of the tomorrow's Thanksgiving holidays, jobless claims will be published today at 8:30 am ET. They are seen at 415K after soaring to 439K the week earlier. Markit manufacturing PMI comes at 9:00 am and it is anticipated to rise slightly in November to 51.2 from 51.0 and finally the university of Michigan consumer sentiment is due at 9:55 am and it is expected to be revised lower to 84.3 from the initial estimate 84.9. 

Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see here the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ p_sub01/ USDJPY%20W%20M%20Q%20Nov%2014%202012.jpg_640W.gif 

Patrik Urban

EUR/USD ignoruje snížení ratingu Francie

20.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) se vůči americkému dolaru (USD) nadále obchoduje kolem hladiny 1,2800 a to i přes snížení ratingu Francie o jeden stupeň z AAA na AA1 s negativním výhledem. Toto snížení také pravděpodobně povede ke změně ratingu fondů EFSF a ESM.

Trhy dnes čekají na výsledek jednání ministrů financí eurozóny v Bruselu o odeslání další části finanční pomoci Řecku. Všeobecně se sice očekává pozitivní výsledek, ale šance, že uvidíme klasickou situace "nakup zvěsti a prodej fakta", je poměrně vysoká.

Měnový pár USD/JPY mírně poklesl k 81,15 poté, co Japonská centrální banka (BOJ) ponechala sazby beze změny v rozmezí 0-0,1 % a neohlásila žádné další uvolňování. Pozornost se nyní upře na volby 16/12 a poté na další zasedání BOJ 19/12, kdy se pravděpodobně dalšího uvolňování dočkáme. USD/JPY  se nyní obchoduje kolem 81,35 a klíčový support zůstává kolem 80,50.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/eurusd-ignoruje-snizeni-ratingu-francie.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.cz/eurusd-ignoruje-snizeni-ratingu-francie.html
Patrik Urban

Euro Shrugs France Downgrade, Onto Bernanke

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3678
November 20, 2012 08:00 ET :

IMT ARCHIVES

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4	5	6	7	8	9	10	[13]
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French downgrade; EZ finance ministers meeting; no changes from BOJ; German PPI lower; Spanish auction. Real estate market data and Lacker and Bernanke speeches ahead. Bernankes speech at the NY Econ Club will be of particular importance as these annual appearances are known to cause volatility. 5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades.

EURUSD faces a confluence of resistance at 1.2820s 200-DMA (previous support now a resistance) and trendline resistance from Oct 17. The common currency continues to trade around 1.28 despite the downgrade by Moody's that cut French AAA rating one notch to Aaa1 with negative outlook. The downgrade is likely to affect EFSF/ESM rating as well.

Markets are awaiting a decision from the Eurozone finance ministers who are meeting in Brussels to determine the release of the next tranche of Greek aid.
USDJPY slipped slightly to 81.15 after the BOJ left rates unchanged between 0-0.1% and did not announce any new easing. Focus turns to the election on 12/16 and the next BOJ meeting on 12/19 when new easing is likely. USDJPY recovered the losses and trades around 81.40.

In other news, German PPI was flat in October m/m but the annual print slowed to 1.5% from 1.7% and Spain sold 12 and 18 month bonds worth EUR 4.94 bln, above its EUR 3.5-4.5 bln target.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with building permits that are expected to decline in October to 0.87M from previous 0.89M while housing starts are anticipated to fall to 0.84M from 0.87M.

Markets will also focus on the Richmond FED president and the FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker's speech on monetary policy that begins at 9:00 am and especially on the FED chairman Bernanke's speech on economic recovery and policy that is scheduled to begin at 12:15 pm. Audience questions are expected so the volatility could heighten even after the speech has concluded.

5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades. 3 trades were stopped out as final targets were missed by 10-15 pips. Find out the rationale of these trading ideas and understand the breakdown of multi-time frame stochastic analysis. Direct access to the latest Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Nears 1.28; Existing Home Sales Next

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3675
November 19, 2012 08:06 ET :

IMT ARCHIVES

<	November 2012						>
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28	29	30	31	1	2	3	[6]
4	5	6	7	8	9	10	[13]
11	12	13	14	15	16	17	[13]
18	19	20	21	22	23	24	[2]
25	26	27	28	29	30	1	[0]
2	3	4	5	6	7	8	[0]

Riskier assets gain; JPY retraces gains ahead of BOJ; Italian industrial orders fell. Market awaits existing home sales. Remaining Premium longs for EURUSD await final target at 1.2840. Premium we posted below the 2 charts for cable to explain the rationale for the latest Premium positions, 1 of which hit all targets. Also, 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.

The current trading week that is shorter due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holidays started on a positive note. Risk trades were pushing higher during Asia and throughout the London session. European equities are gaining over 1% and the relative strength winner is NZD while USD is the weakest.

Friday's optimistic comments on the progress regarding the fiscal cliff along with chatter that Greece will be given the next tranche of aid at tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting underpinned the riskier assets. However, the uncertainty that comes from the ongoing tensions in the middle ease could easily change the whole market sentiment around.

USDJPY is losing a portion of its recent gains ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision as it trades around 81.15. New easing seems more likely to be announced at the following BOJ meeting on December 19th after the election in mid December than tomorrow. Further retracement therefore seems likely. Key short term support is around 80.40.

Italian industrial orders fell sharply in September by 4.2% after growing 2.7% in August. On annual basis the third largest economy of the Eurozone lost 12.8% of orders. EURUSD trades around 1.2770.

The sole item on the US data calendar is existing home sales that are expected to rise marginally to 4.76M in October from previous 4.75M.

1 of 2 Premium cable longs hit all targets. Here are the 2 cable charts used to help explain the rationale http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ p_sub01/ GBPUSD%20D%20W%20%20Nov%2014%20Oct%2012.jpg_640W.gif The piece also focuses on the timing of the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new gold, and GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Patrik Urban

FXstreet.cz: Pravidelný FOREX videokomentář

19.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku.

Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

Chinese Warn Of Fiscal Cliff; TICS Data & IP Is Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3673
November 16, 2012 07:34 ET :

IMT ARCHIVES

<	November 2012						>
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4	5	6	7	8	9	10	[13]
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18	19	20	21	22	23	24	[0]
25	26	27	28	29	30	1	[0]
2	3	4	5	6	7	8	[0]

Chinese warning of fiscal cliff; EZ current account declined but trade account rose; Japanese lower house dissolved. Focus is on TIC flows; capacity utilization and industrial production. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.

The greenback is higher across the board in the ongoing session. European equities are losing around 0.5% and the relative strength winner is USD while NZD is the weakest.

The fiscal cliff is in the spotlight again and it is unlikely to change any time soon. Chinese vice finance minister Guangyao said that a failure to solve it would be disastrous to the US, it would be a serious shot to the world economy and it would drag Chinese growth by 1.2 percentage points, MNI reports.

On the data front we learned that Eurozone current account balance declined in September to EUR 0.8 bln from EUR 10.9 bln while the trade surplus rose to EUR 11.3 bln from EUR 8.9 bln.

In other news, UK chancellor Osborne is about to start the second round of interviews for BOE's governorship and Japanese lower house was dissolved which paves way for elections on 12/16.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with Canadian foreign securities purchases that are expected to rise to CAD 7.45 bln in September from previous CAD 6.9 bln. US TIC flows are due 30 minutes later and they are seen lower at USD 75 bln from USD 90 bln.

Capacity utilization will flash on traders' screens at 9:15 am and it is anticipated marginally higher in October at 78.4% from 78.3% while industrial production is expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.4%.

This week's last risk event is the FOMC member Dennis Lockhart's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy that is scheduled to start at 3:45 pm ET.

Gold survived one of the 2 stop and is nearing the 1700 figure. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patril Urban

JPY dále oslabuje; negativní úrok u BOJ?

15.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) posílila kvůli fámám o tom, že Španělsko zažádá Mezinárodní měnový fond o pomoc namísto žádosti o oficiální pomoc od Evropské centrální banky. Španělský ministr financí tuto zprávu odmítl a dodal, že Španělsko se stále nerozhodlo zda o pomoc zažádá.

Měnové páry s japonským jenem (JPY) pokračují v růstu, tentokrát kvůli slovům šéfa japonské opozice Shinzo Abe, který chce začít spolupracovat s Japonskou centrální bankou (Bank of Japan - BOJ) s cílem oslabit domácí měnu. Shinzo Abe, který by se mohl snadno stát příštím premiérem také dodal, že by centrální banka mohla nastavit negativní úrokové sazby.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/jpy-dale-oslabuje-negativni-urok-u-boj.html

Patrik Urban

Eurozone in Recession, Yen Damaged, US Jobless & CPI Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3671
November 15, 2012 07:37 ET :

IMT ARCHIVES

<	November 2012						>
Su	M	T	W	T	F	S	#
28	29	30	31	1	2	3	[6]
4	5	6	7	8	9	10	[13]
11	12	13	14	15	16	17	[11]
18	19	20	21	22	23	24	[0]
25	26	27	28	29	30	1	[0]
2	3	4	5	6	7	8	[0]

JPY falls further; European GDP above expectations; UK retail sales disappointed. Busy session ahead includes CPI, jobless claims; empire state and Philly fed manufacturing and Bernanke's speech. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. See more below.

The common currency pushed higher on rumor that Spain would ask the IMF for a credit line instead of requesting an official bailout. Spanish economy minister rejected this notion and added that Spain has not decided whether to request ECB aid.

JPY pairs continue to push higher on comments from Japan's main opposition leader Shinzo Abe who wants to work with the BOJ to reverse the trend of JPY strength and who also suggested that the BOJ could set interest rates below zero to enhance lending. Abe is leading in polls and could become the next PM.

A slew of Q3 GDP data was released during the European session. French and German GDP both rose 0.2% which was better than analysts expected. On the other hand Italian GDP contracted -0.2% and the whole Eurozone economy fell 0.1%. Nevertheless even these results were slightly above expectations. Eurozone CPI remained steady at 2.5% and the core stayed at 1.5%

UK retailers experienced the largest sales decline in six months as the volume fell 0.8% in October after growing 0.5% in the prior month. GBPUSD initially weakened to 1.5827 but quickly recovered and trades around 1.5850. EURGBP trades higher around 0.8055.

Busy US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with CPI that is expected to rise to 2.1% in October from previous 2.0% y/y. The core figure is seen steady at 2.0%. Jobless claims are seen higher at 372K from last week's 355K and empire state manufacturing is seen lower in November at -7.2 from previous -6.2. Philly FED manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated to decline to 1.1 from previous 5.7.

Markets are also awaiting the FED chairman Bernanke's speech on housing and mortgage markets in Atlanta that is scheduled to start at 1:20 pm ET.

5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban