Sentiment se zlepšil, EUR/USD nad 1,3000

31.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Sentiment na trzích se zlepšil hned na začátku londýnské seance poté, co německé maloobchodní tržby předčily očekávání a vzrostly za září o 1,5 %. Francouzská spotřeba rovněž vzrostla a to o 0,1 % po srpnovém 0,8 % pádu. Měnový pár EUR/USD překonal hranici 1,3000, u které stále obchoduje a pár EUR/JPY posílil a obchoduje se blízko denních maxim kolem 103,90.
 
Další reporty ale nebyly tak optimistické. Italská míra nezaměstnanosti vzrostla na 10,8 % z 10,6 % a míra nezaměstnanosti v eurozóně dosáhla na další novodobé maximum a to 11,6 % z 11,5 %.  V eurozóně je nyní skoro 18,5 milionu lidí bez práce. Maloobchodní inflace mírně poklesla na 2,5 % a 2,6 %.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/sentiment-se-zlepsil-eurusd-nad-13000.html

Patrik Urban

Golden Cross in EURUSD; CAD GDP & Chicago PMI Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3637
October 31, 2012 07:35 ET :

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EURUSD sees a daily Golden Cross as Ashraf warned last week in Tuesdays Premium Insights. German and French data above expectation; Eurozone and Italian unemployment rate higher; Eurozone CPI lower; German auction. Market awaits Canadian GDP and Chicago PMI. Ashrafs piece on the Canadian dollar on Oct 25. See more below. EURUSD, USDJPY and cable hit all targets. See more below.

USD weakens across the board except JPY in the ongoing session. European equities are gaining about 0.5%. The relative strength winner is CHF along with NZD while JPY is the weakest.

Market sentiment improved at the beginning of the London session after German retail sales surprised to the upside and grew 1.5% in September and French consumer spending rose 0.1% after a 0.8% decline seen in August. EURUSD broke above the 1.30 level but has not seen much follow through. EURJPY pushed higher and continues to trade near session highs around 103.80.

Not all data was positive though - Italian unemployment rate ticked higher in September to 10.8% from previous 10.6% and Eurozone unemployment rate rose to a fresh high of 11.6% from 11.5% leaving nearly 18.5 million people out of work. Eurozone consumer inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%.
Germany sold 30 year bond totaling EUR 1.704 bln vs. EUR 2 bln target. The average yield rose to 2.34% from 2.17% but cover rose considerably to 2.69 from 1.5.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian GDP that is expected to grow 0.2% in August m/m but to slow to 1.7% from 1.9% y/y. Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am and it is anticipated to rise to 51.4 in October after falling to 49.7.

Markets also await Eurozone finance ministers conference call that will focus on the release of the next tranche of the bailout for Greece. However, no definite decisions are expected today.

1 of 2 EURUSD Premium longs hit all targets, the other in progress. USDJPY sot and GBPUSD long hit all targets. 1 of 2 Gold stopped out. silver and EURGBP in progress, while AUDUSD hit all targets and CADJPY stopped out. For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Uvolňování v Japonsku; Burzy v USA opět uzavřeny

30.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je slabší proti všem hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují více než 1 %. Hurikán Sandy, který udeřil na východní pobřeží USA způsobil škody přesahující 20 miliard dolarů. Finanční čtvrť v New Yorku je zatopená z důvodu přívalových dešťů a zvýšené hladiny řeky Hudson, což bude mít za následek další uzavření hlavních amerických akciových burz. Podle agentury Bloomberg je to poprvé za více než sto let, kdy počasí způsobilo dvoudenní uzavření burz.

Japonský jen (JPY) výrazně posilnil poté, co Japonská centrální  banka ponechala sazbu v rozmezí 0-0,1 % a zvýšila program pro nákup aktiv pouze o 11 bilinů jenů, zatímco trh očekával agresivnější uvolňování v hodnotě 20 bilionů. Měnový pár USD/JPY spadl z hodnoty 80,12 až na 79,27 a pár EUR/JPY prudce oslabil z 103,39 na 102,17. Kvůli růstu na páru EUR/USD ale později posílil až k 102,90.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/uvolnovani-v-japonsku-burzy-v-usa-opet-uzavreny.html

Patrik Urban

Yen up After BOJ; US Equities Closed

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3634
October 30, 2012 08:01 ET :

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US equities to remain closed; BOJ expands asset purchases; German unemployment rose; Eurozone business climate declined; Spanish GDP improved q/q. S&P Case Shiller is next, other US events postponed. USDJPY shorts in latest Premium Insights nearing the final target. EURUSD, EURJPY, cable, gold, silver and EURGBP in progress. More below.

Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast causing a damage that is estimated to exceed USD 50 bln. New York's financial district has been flooded by record tides and rain closing the US markets for the second day in a row. Bloomberg reports that this is the first time in over a century when the weather stopped equity trading for two days.

JPY surged across the board after the BoJ left rates steady between 0% and 0.1% and increased the asset buying programs only by JPY 11T to JPY 91T while some market participants expected a more aggressive increase by JPY 20T. The BOJ said that it would keep easing until 1% CPI is in sight. USDJPY fell from session's high at 80.12 to as low as 79.27. EURJPY declined sharply from 103.39 to 102.17 but recovered to 102.90.

Despite the fact that European data mainly disappointed, EURUSD trades 70+ points above session low of 1.2886. German unemployment rose by 20K in October which was above analysts' expectations but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.9%. Eurozone business climate fell further in October to -1.62 from -1.34 and Spanish Q3 GDP results were mixed as q/q reading improved to -0.3% from -0.4% but on annual basis the economy shrank 1.6% from -1.3%.

UK CBI realized sales surged in October to 30 from previous 6, reaching the highest level since June. GBPUSD trades near session highs around 1.6075.

The US data calendar is limited to S&P Case Shiller index at 9:00 am ET that is seen rising 1.9% in August from previous 1.2%. The consumer confidence report was postponed and the FOMC member William Dudley's speech was cancelled.

CAD traders await RMPI at 8:30 am ET that is expected to slow to 1.2% in September from previous 3.4% and the BOC governor Mark Carney's testimony in Ottawa that begins at 3:30 pm.

USDJPY shorts in latest Premium Insights nearing the final target. EURUSD, EURJPY, cable, gold, silver and EURGBP in progress, while AUDUSD hit all targets and CADJPY stopped out. We added 4 charts on EURUSD and gold to dissect the technical complexities for gold (daily and weekly stochastics and MA confluence) as well as euros intermediate trendline and its shifting behavior relative disappointing IFO & PMIs. For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban

Týdenní VIDEO: Shrnutí událostí a vývoj na FOREXu

29.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku.

Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

US Equities Closed As NY Braces For Hurricane Sandy

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3631
October 29, 2012 09:01 ET :

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UK mortgage approvals and net consumer credit higher; Spanish retail sales sharply lower; Italian auction. Markets await German CPI; US income and spending rose from prev month. PLEASE NOTE that until the next week, the time difference between London and NY narrowed to 4 hours from the usual 5 hours. US equity markets closed. USDJPY shorts in latest Premium Insights nearing the final target. EURUSD, EURJPY, cable, gold, silver and EURGBP in progress. More below.

The greenback is mixed in the ongoing session. It is stronger against EUR, GBP and CHF, weaker against JPY and unchanged against the rest of the majors. European equities are losing nearly 1% and the relative strength winner is JPY while GBP lags.

GBP is losing across the board despite UK mortgage approvals that rose 50K in September after rising 48K the prior month. Furthermore, net consumer credit rose to GBP 1.2 bln from previous -0.1 bln which is the highest level since 2008. GBPUSD trades near session lows around 1.6060 while EURGBP recovered to 0.8035 after falling to 0.8022.

EURUSD declined to 1.2886 after Spanish retail sales dropped more than analysts anticipated. On annual basis sales fell 10.9% in September after falling only 2.1% in August. A VAT hike is blamed for the decline. EURUSD trades around 1.2910.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold EUR 8 bln of 6 month BOT. The average yield was lower at 1.347% from 1.5% while cover rose to 1.52 from 1.39.
US core PCE that is expected to inch higher to 1.7% in September from 1.6% y/y. Sep Personal income rose 0.4% as expected from 0.1% and personal spending rose 0.8% vs expected 0.6% from previous 0.5%. Coe PCE price index edged up 1.7% from 1.6%.

PLEASE NOTE that until the next week, the time difference between London and NY narrowed to 4 hours from the usual 5 hours.

NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed today as the hurricane Sandy approaches New York. Confirmations whether these markets will be closed on Tuesday as well are pending. SIFMA is also recommending that US fixed income markets close at noon.

USDJPY shorts in latest Premium Insights nearing the final target. EURUSD, EURJPY, cable, gold, silver and EURGBP in progress, while AUDUSD hit all targets and CADJPY stopped out. We added 4 charts on EURUSD and gold to dissect the technical complexities for gold (daily and weekly stochastics and MA confluence) as well as euros intermediate trendline and its shifting behavior relative disappointing IFO & PMIs. For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban

GBP/USD posiluje po zprávách z trhu práce

17.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) se obchoduje slabší proti všem hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují přes 0,5 % a relativně nejsilnější je australský dolar (AUD) zatímco USD je nejslabší.

Britská libra (GBP) posílila proti všem hlavním měnám poté, co zprávy z  trhu práce ve Velké Británii ukázaly, že počet žádostí o podporu v nezaměstnanosti za září poklesl o další čtyři tisíce po minulém poklesu o 14,2 tisíc. ILO míra nezaměstnanosti se propadla na 7,9 % z 8,1 % což je nejlepší výsledek za poslední více než rok. Toto zlepšení je překvapením, protože bylo racionální očekávat zvýšení počtu žádostí o podporu po ukončení dočasných prací napojených na olympijské hry.

Zápis z posledního jednání Bank of England (komise MPC) ukázal jednohlasné hlasování pro udržení základní sazby na 0,5 % a ponechání programu pro nákup aktiv na 375 miliardách liber. Příští zasedání komise proběhne 8. listopadu a následující zápis, který bude publikován 21. listopadu by měl být zajímavější než ten dnešní, protože několik členů komise již naznačilo, že jsou proti dalšímu kvantitativnímu uvolňování. Měnový pár GBP/USD posílil na 1,6163 a stále obchoduje blízko maximálních hodnot.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/gbpusd-posiluje-po-zpravach-z-trhu-prace.html

Patrik Urban

GBP Strengthens On Labor Market Data

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3613
October 17, 2012 07:43 ET :

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UK jobless claims and unemployment rate fell; MPC minutes; Eurozone construction output rose; Swiss ZEW higher; EU summit. Focus turns to US real estate market data. Tuesday nights Premium Insights include 9 new trades and 4 trades in progress, alongside an emphasis on the confluence of support points across 5 segments of the Intermarket space. Cable longs hit all targets. We also have 5 new charts with a special technical focus on EURGBP.

USD is lower across the board in the ongoing session. European equities are gaining about 0.5% and the relative strength winner is AUD while USD is the weakest.

GBP pushed higher after the labor market data showed that UK jobless claims fell in September by 4K from previous decline by 14.2K and the ILO unemployment rate fell in August to 7.9% from previous 8.1% which is the lowest level in over a year. The improvement is somewhat surprising as it would have been reasonable to assume that jobless claims would rise when the temporary hiring for the Olympics ended.

The minutes from the latest MPC revealed unanimous voting to keep rates and the QE unchanged. The minutes from the next MPC meeting (November 8th) that are due on 11/21 are likely to be more interesting as some members have already expressed opposition to more QE. GBPUSD trades near session highs around 1.6160 and EURGBP trades around 0.8115.

Other data showed that Eurozone construction output rose 0.7% in August from previous 0.1% and Swiss ZEW economic expectations survey improved in October to -28.9 from -34.9. Focus will turn to the EU economic summit that begins tomorrow in Brussels. One of the main topics is likely to be the formation of the banking union. MNI has quoted a source who said that there will be no decision on the bank supervisor at the upcoming summit. EURUSD trades around 1.3120.

The US data calendar is limited to building permits that are expected to rise slightly to 0.81M in September from previous 0.80M and to housing starts that are seen higher at 0.77M from 0.75M. Both reports are due at 8:30 am ET.

Tuesday night Premium Insights are out. Direct Access can be found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=688 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

Inflace ve Velké Británii na 3letém minimu

16.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je mírně slabší proti EUR a CHF, silnější proti CAD a NZD a téměř beze změny proti ostatním hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují 0,75 % a nejsilnější je EUR zatímco nejslabší je CAD.

Trend k nižší maloobchodní inflaci ve Velké Británii po krátké odmlce pokračuje. Index CPI totiž v září propadl na 2,2 % z 2,5 %, což je nejnižší hodnota od listopadu 2009. Za snížením indexu stojí nižší cena energií a služeb. Tento vliv ale pravděpodobně bude jen krátkodobý, protože dodavatelé energií oznámili výrazné zvýšení cen, které se v následujících měsících promítne právě do vyšší úrovně cen. Měnový pár GBP/USD po zprávě oslabil asi 30 pipů na 1,6071 a v současné době obchoduje kolem 1,6090.

Německý ZEW index ekonomického sentimentu předčil očekávání a zlepšil se pro říjen na hodnotu -11,5 z -18,2. Centrum ZEW oznámilo, že za snižujícími se riziky pro německou ekonomiku stojí pravděpodobně nižší nejistota na finančních trzích. Zároveň ale dodává, že skoro polovina jejich expertů vidí ekonomickou situaci za 6 měsíců přibližně stejnou, jako je nyní.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/inflace-ve-velke-britanii-na-3letem-minimu.html

Patrik Urban

EUR up on ZEW, Onto BoC & US CPI

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3609
October 16, 2012 07:46 ET :

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UK CPI at 3-yr lows, Improving ZEW Boosts EUR; EZ CPI lower. Focus turns to CPI, TIC flows, capacity utilization and industrial production. Both of Thursdays EURUSD longs hit all targets. See below in the final paragraph, which of the others were unfilled and stopped out.

The greenback is mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against EUR and CHF, stronger against CAD and NZD and unchanged against the rest of the majors. European equities are gaining around 0.75% and EUR leads while CAD lags.

The downtrend in consumer inflation has resumed in the UK as CPI slowed to 2.2% in September from previous 2.5% which is the lowest rate since 11/2009. MNI reports that the effect of falling utility prices is likely to be short lived as suppliers announced large price increases which will show up in the CPI figures over the next few months. GBPUSD weakened about 30 points to 1.6071 and currently trades around 1.6090.

German ZEW economic sentiment bested expectations as it improved in October to -11.5 from previous -18.2. The ZEW noted decreasing risks to the German economy due to lower uncertainty on the financial markets but nearly half of the experts see the economic situation six months ahead more or less the same.

Eurozone CPI eased to 2.6% in September from previous 2.7% but the core figure was steady at 1.5% y/y and the ZEW economic sentiment improved to -1.4 from -3.8. EURUSD trades right above the 1.30 handle.

Up ahead is a busy session that kicks off at 8:30 am ET with consumer inflation that is expected to slow in September to 0.5% from 0.6% m/m but to rise 1.9% from 1.7% y/y. The core figure is seen rising 0.2% m/m and 2.0% y/y. Net long term TIC flows are due at 9:00 am ET and are anticipated to decline to USD 45.3 bln in August from USD 67.0 bln. Industrial production and capacity utilization come 15 minutes later and are expected to rise in September by 0.2% and to 78.4% respectively.

CAD traders await foreign securities purchases that are due at 8:30 am ET and are seen higher in August at CAD 8.5 bln from July's CAD 6.6 bln.

The latest from Thursdays premium Insights, both EURUSD longs hit all targets. 1 of 2 EURJPY hit all targets, the other unfilled (missed by 24 pips). USDJPY in progress. 1 of GBPUSD longs in progress, the other unfilled. AUDJPY short was unfilled (missed by 6 pips) and so was CADJPY long.
Both gold stopped out, 1 of 2 XAGUSD in progress. 1 of 2 US Crude oil stopped out, the other in progress. The direct link to these Insights can be found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=686 Non subscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

From China Data Bounce to US Retail Sales

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3606
October 15, 2012 07:48 ET :

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No surprises from Tokyo; EU summit ahead; Chinese CPI slows; Swiss PPI mixed. Focus turns to retail sales; empire fed manufacturing and business inventories. The latest of the Premium Insights includes EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, CADJPY,oil and CADJPY. These also include detailed chart analysis on multi-timeframe stochastics on GBPUSD. Existing trades on gold and silver and intact. See direct link below.

USD was bid after the Asian open but all gains were lost when London traders got to their desks to rally on the back of the strong China trade data and soft CPI figures. European equities are gaining around 1% and the relative strength winner is EUR while JPY is the weakest.

The G7, IMF & WB meeting in Tokyo did not reveal any surprises. Noteworthy is that central bankers attending the meeting signaled that the ECB will not cut interest rates or undertake any other non standard measures before Spain formally seeks a bailout. The market will start to focus on the EU economic summit that begins on Thursday. Main topics will be Greece and Spain (and subsequent activation of the OMT) but other projects are likely to be discussed as well, mainly the banking union and new fiscal rules, MNI reports. EURUSD pushed higher and trades around 1.2965.

Fundamental reports showed that Chinese consumer inflation eased in September to 1.9% from previous 2.0% y/y and Swiss PPI eased to 0.3% from 0.5% m/m but rose 0.3% from -0.1% y/y.

The NY session begins at 8:30 am ET with September retail sales that are expected to slow to 0.7% after rising at a solid pace the last two months while the core figure is seen at 0.6% from 0.8%. Empire state manufacturing is anticipated to improve to -4.5 in October from -10.4 and finally business inventories at 10:00 am are expected at 0.5% in August from 0.8%. Markets are also likely to react to the Richmond FED president and the FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker who delivers a speech at 12:45 pm on economic outlook.

CAD traders await the BOC business outlook survey due at 10:30 am and the BOC governor Mark Carney speech that begins at 3:20 pm. The text will released at 3:05 pm and the press conference that follows is scheduled to start at 4:10 pm.

The direct link to Thursdays Premium Insights can be found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=686 Non subscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

FOREX: Týdenní videokomentář FXstreet.cz

15.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku.

Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

2. Investiční fórum - diskusní blok FOREX 

http://www.investicniweb.cz/video/2012/10/10/2-investicni-forum-jak-uspet-na-forexu-na-jake-meny-vsadit-ve-zbytku-roku/

Investiční fórum II. se konalo dne 20. září 2012 v Kongresovém centru Vysoké školy finanční a správní za velkého zájmu všech přítomných, kteří se chtěli dozvědět, co si myslí a jaké plány má s českou ekonomikou prezidentský kandidát Vladimír Dlouhý, do čeho investovat a jak uspět na Forexu. 

Fórum zahájil samostatným vystoupením na téma Česká ekonomika 2013+ Vladimír Dlouhý, který mimo jiné zaujal konstatováním, že euro je společná měna pouze pro dobré počasí. V navazujícím diskuzním bloku s názvem Investování 2012/2013 se setkali analytik Raiffeisenbank Aleš Michl, prorektor VŠFS Petr Budinský, investiční stratég České pojišťovny Miloslav Plojhar a hlavní stratég ČSOB Asset Management Aleš Prandstetter. 

Po přestávce pokračovalo fórum druhým diskuzním blokem na téma Jak uspět na měnovém trhu Forex? Debaty se zúčastnil hlavní makléř brokerjet ČS Martin Urban, trader FXstreet.cz Patrik Urban, finanční analytik Jaroslav Tupý a finanční analytička BOSSA Michala Moravcová. 

Investiční fórum II. ukončil zajímavou prezentací Guenter Deuber, hlavní analytik Raiffeisenbank. Moderování akce se zhostili její pořadatelé Petr Novotný a Roman Chlupatý. Organizace se ujala stejně jako v případě Investičního fóra I. Vysoká škola finanční a správní. Investiční fórum III. Je plánováno na leden 2013 opět na půdě VŠFS.  

 

Patrik Urban

Trhy čekají na PPI a spotřebitelskou důvěru

12.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) se obchoduje slabší proti všem hlavním měnám s výjimkou australského dolaru (AUD). Evropské akciové trhy se pohybují v úzkém pásmu a nejsilnější měnou je novozélandský dolar (NZD) zatímco AUD je nejslabší.

Společná evropská měna (EUR) dnes proti USD posílila až k 1,2985, ale měnový pár AUD/USD se začal vyprodávat poté, co guvernér Australské centrální banky (RBA) řekl, že existuje manévrovací prostor pro změnu sazeb (čti "sazby můžeme snížit") kvůli menšímu růstu ekonomiky. Pár AUD/USD se  propadl z maxim kolem 1,0288 k 1,0245 a pár EUR/AUD vzrostl z 1,2578 na 1,2653.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trhy-cekaji-na-ppi-a-spotrebitelskou-duveru.html

Patrik Urban

Onto US PPI & Consumer Confidence

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3602
October 12, 2012 07:45 ET :

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RBA hints at another rate cut; German growth to increase in 2012 but decrease in 2013; Eurozone industrial production rose m/m but declined y/y; G7+IMF+WB meeting. PPI and consumer confidence is next. In the latest of the Premium Insights, 1 of 2 EURUSD longs was filled (1.2920 hit), 1 of 2 EURJPY filled (as low as 101.20) & 1 of 2 GBPUSD was filled (as low as 1.6019). See more below.

The greenback is trading weaker across the board except AUD. European equities are barely changed and the relative strength winner is NZD while AUD is the weakest.

The common currency pushed higher to 1.2985 but AUDUSD sold off its highs after the RBA governor Glenn Stevens said that the RBA has a room to move on interest rates, noting softening growth. AUDUSD trades around 1.0245 from 1.0288 high while EURAUD strengthened to 1.2653 from 1.2578 session low.

MNI reports that the German government will increase its growth forecast for 2012 from 0.7% to 1% but decrease it for 2013 from 1.6% to 1.0%. Last forecasts were published in May.

European data calendar was limited to Eurozone industrial production that rose 0.6% in August which is the same pace of growth as in July. However, on annual basis it worsened to -2.9% from -2.8%.

Along with the G7 meeting in Tokyo, the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank starts today and continues tomorrow. Headlines are likely to impact the markets on Monday open.

The US session opens at 8:30 am ET with September PPI that is expected to slow to 0.8% after surging 1.7% m/m (1.8% from 2.0% y/y) while the core figure is seen steady at 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y). University of Michigan consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am ET and it is anticipated to decline in October marginally to 78.1 from previous 78.3.

The direct link to the latest Premium Insights can be found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub0/ access/ ?a=686 Non subscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

Soutěžní webinář Bossa 4-Poznejte FOREX a vyhrajte HONDU CRZ v exkluzivním vybavení

https://bossa.cz/cs/apply-for-seminar-sslform/-/seminar-form/register/78844

Jedinečný portál FXstreet.cz, který je špičkou na FOREX v České a Slovenské republice, Vám ve spolupráci se společností Bossa předvede, že investování a úspěch v soutěži nemusí být výsadou jen traderů s dlouholetými zkušenostmi. Ondřej Hartman a Patrik Urban, který byl zaměstnán i pro měnový Investiční fond na slavné Wall Street, Vám jednoduchou formou, navíc u Vás doma, vysvětlí nejdůležitější pojmy o Forexu a jak na něm obchodovat. Vzdělávejte se a vyhrávejte hodnotné ceny každý týden!

Datum: 2012-10-16 17:30

Lektor: Patrik Urban, Ondřej Hartman, Bossa

Adresa: On-line

 

 

Euro ignoruje snížení ratingu Španělska

11.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je slabší proti všem hlavním měnám vyjma JPY a smazal veškeré zisky ze včerejšího dne. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují přibližně 0,6 % a relativně nejsilnější je NZD zatímco JPY je nejslabší.

Pozitivní sentiment na trhu pomohl evropské měně (EUR) k opětovnému dosažení hranice 1,2900. Pokud vezmeme v potaz snížení ratingu Španělska agenturou S&P z BBB+ na BBB- a snížení dlouhodobého výhledu na negativní, jedná se o poměrně překvapivý vývoj.

Měnový pár AUD/USD vzrostl z 1,0216 na 1,0265 poté, co zaměstnanost za září vykázala růst o 14,5 tisíce po minulém pádu o 9,1 tisíce. Vyšší zaměstnanost na plný úvazek a také lepší míra participace tak pomohly australskému dolaru k posílení a to i přes výrazný skok v míře nezaměstnanosti, která vyskočila na 5,4 % z 5,1 %. AUD/USD se v současné době obchoduje kolem 1,0285.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/euro-ignoruje-snizeni-ratingu-spanelska.html

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Above 1.29; Trade Deficit Next

Euro ignores Spanish downgrade; AUD labor market data mixed; French CPI declined. Focus turns to trade deficit from US and Canada; jobless claims and import prices.

The greenback is weaker across the board, except JPY and has lost all of yesterday's gains. European equities are gaining 0.6% and the relative strength winner is NZD while JPY lags.

Positive sentiment helped the common currency to push higher and back above the 1.29 figure which is somewhat surprising given yesterday's Spanish downgrade by the S&P to BBB- from BBB+ with negative long term outlook.

AUDUSD gained from 1.0216 to 1.0265 after September employment was above expectations at 14.5K after previous decline by 9.1K. Rising full time employment along with a higher participation rate meant that the Aussie strengthened despite the unemployment rate that rose sharply to 5.4% from previous 5.1%. AUDUSD trades around 1.0285.

On the data front, German September CPI was unrevised at 2.0% y/y, French CPI declined 0.3% from 0.7% m/m and slowed to 1.9% from 2.1% y/y and Greek unemployment rate rose in July to 25.1% from 24.8%.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with trade deficit that is expected to widen slightly to USD 44.1 bln in August from previous deficit USD 42.0 bln. Jobless claims are seen marginally higher this week at 368K from last week's 367K and September import prices are anticipated steady at 0.7%.

Canadian data will include August trade deficit that is seen narrower at CAD 1.8 bln from -2.3 bln and new house price index is expected to rise 0.2% from 0.1%. Both releases are due at 8:30 am ET.

Markets also await the FOMC member and the FED governor Jeremy Stein's speech on asset purchases which is scheduled to start at 10:00 am ET. 

Patrik Urban

EUR Unchanged Despite Improving Industrial Production

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3597
October 10, 2012 07:43 ET :

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Italian tax cut; French and Italian industrial production rose; Italian auction. Markets turn to wholesale inventories and FED's Beige book.

Currencies are little changed, trading within a narrow range in the ongoing session. European equities are losing about 0.4%.

In a somewhat surprising move, Italian PM Monti announced an income tax cut designed to aid low earners. Also, the VAT will increase only 1% instead of 2% as initially intended. Today's risk events include a meeting between the Spanish PM Rajoy and French president Hollande in Paris and also the EU parliament debate regarding the banking union proposal.

The common currency did not benefit from French and Italian industrial production figures that were above expectations on both monthly and yearly basis. French IP rose 1.5% in August from previous 0.6% and Italian IP increased 1.7% after a 0.1% decline seen in July. EURUSD trades around 1.2870.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold 3 and 12 month BOTs totaling EUR 11 bln. The average yield rose to 0.765% from 0.7% respectively to 1.941% from 1.692% but cover has improved.

The data calendar for the US session is light today. Wholesale inventories are due at 10:00 am ET and they are expected to rise 0.5% in August from previous 0.7%. The key event is the FED's Beige book that is due at 2:00 pm. There are also two speeches, Minneapolis FED president Kocherlakota speaks at 2:25 pm and Dallas FED president Fisher at 4:45 pm. Audience questions follow both speeches.

Patrik Urban

GBP/USD opět klesá pod tlakem špatných zpráv

09.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Sentiment na trhu se prudce zhoršil krátce po začátku londýnské obchodní seance. Americký dolar (USD) vzrostl proti všem hlavním měnám a společná evropská měna (EUR) se rychle propadla z 1,2980 na 1,2907. USD se sice vzdal části zisků, ale i tak je silnější proti všem hlavním měnám vyjma JPY. Evropské akciové trhy se obchodují jenom mírně slabší.

Včerejší setkání ministrů financí v Bruselu nepřineslo žádná zásadní rozhodnutí. Konference ale pokračuje i dnes, takže trhy můžou snadno reagovat na novinové titulky. Důležitá je také dnešní schůzka kancléřky Merkelové s řeckým premiérem Samarasem v Aténách.

Z dalších zpráv uvedu snížení výhledu globálního ekonomického růstu Mezinárodním měnovým fondem, který také prohlásil, že vidí alarmující riziko hlubšího propadu růstu. V proslovu před ekonomickou komisí evropského parlamentu šéf Evropské centrální banky Draghi prohlásil, že ECB nebude tisknout peníze, aby tak nahradila nutné kroky některých vlád. Částečným překvapením bylo, že ECB pomýšlí o možnosti publikovat zápis z jednání o sazbách, tak jako to dělá většina centrálních bank západního světa.

zbytek zde:

http://www.fxstreet.cz/gbpusd-opet-klesa-pod-tlakem-spatnych-zprav.html

Patrik Urban

GBPUSD Under Pressure; UK Data Disappoints

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3594
October 9, 2012 08:01 ET :

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Ecofin meeting continues; IMF lowers growth forecasts; Draghi's testimony; UK industrial production declines further. US session brings second tier releases.

Market sentiment deteriorated significantly after London traders got to their desks. USD gained across the board and the common currency fell from 1.2980s to 1.2907. The buck lost some of its gains but still trades stronger across the board except JPY.

Yesterday's Ecofin meeting in Brussels did not bring anything significant. The meeting continues today so trading could be impacted by headlines and rumors. Noteworthy is also chancellor Merkel's visit to Athens where she meets the PM Samaras. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts and sees alarmingly high risk of a deeper slump as the EZ crisis intensifies, Bloomberg reports.

In a testimony before the economic committee of the European parliament, the ECB president Draghi said that the ECB will not print money to replace lack of government action. He also said that the ECB is thinking about publishing minutes of meetings.

The GBP has weakened significantly over the past two days and given today's data, there is a scope for further losses. Industrial production declined additional 1.2% in August from -0.8% y/y while manufacturing production fell 1.2% from previous -0.7% y/y. Monthly figures also disappointed. GBPUSD fell to 1.6001 and now trades around 1.6020.

The data calendar for the US session is light today. Canadian housing starts are due at 8:15 am ET and they are expected to decline to 201K in September from previous 224.9K. At 10:00 am NIESR will release its UK GDP estimate for September and US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index for October is seen higher at 52.3 from previous 51.8.

Patrik Urban

JPYTakes over from USD as Equities Look Down

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3593
October 8, 2012 07:50 ET :

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JPY strengthens; Chinese HSBC services PMI higher; Eurogroup meeting; Swiss deflation eases marginally; Eurozone investor confidence improves and German industrial production rose. US and Canadian banks are closed today. Equities seen at risk of etering a losing week, with S&P500 and Dow-30 vulnerable to 1420 and 13300 respectively. Both EURUSD & cable stopped out, with CADJPY it all targets and metals in progress. See more detail below.

More bad news on the UK austerity front as the independent Office for Budget Responsibility concludes the government will likely miss its target of reducing public by 2016/17. As much as 15 bn per year in savings will have to be made.

USD mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against JPY, unchanged against commodity dollars and stronger against EUR, GBP and CHF. European equities are losing about 1.25%.

Despite the fact that Japanese banks were closed in observance of Health-Sports day, the JPY has been gaining across the board throughout the Asian and London sessions. USDJPY declined about 50 points to 78.12 while EURJPY fell 100+ points to 101.12.

The AUD stopped sliding and trades slightly higher after Chinese HSBC services PMI rose in September to 54.3 from previous 52. AUDUSD oscillates around 1.0175. A break below would cause a technical damage as the zone around 1.0150 is a key support on the weekly chart.

Reports that suggested that Spain would not ask for a bailout over the weekend proved to be accurate so the focus is on the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg. Markets will also watch for headlines regarding the decision on the next tranche of bailout funds for Greece.

In other news, Swiss annual CPI printed -0.4% in September from previous -0.5% while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in September at 2.9%. Eurozone sentix investor confidence improved marginally in October to -22.2 from previous -23.2 and German industrial production rose 0.5% in August after 1.3% growth seen in July.

There are no reports due during the NY session as the US observes Columbus Day Holiday while Canadian banks are closed in observance of Thanksgiving day. The sole risk event comes at 5:00 pm ET when New Zealand releases its Q3 business confidence survey.

Our Pre-NFP Premium Insights remain in progress, EURUSD missed the 1.3080 final target before being stopped out. Metals and oil longs remain in progress, while EURJPY were stopped out. CADJPY hit all targets. Direct access is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=685 Nonsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban