Eurozone CPI Rises; Chicago PMI & CAD GDP Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3579
September 28, 2012 07:55 ET
:
Out of the last 17 quarters (including Q3), gold had only 3 falling
quarters, Risk rally pushes further but a part of gains was lost;
Spanish bank stress test due; EZ CPI higher; German retail sales
improved. Market turns to core PCE, personal income and spending,
Chicago PMI, UoM consumer confidence and Canadian GDP. Mondays Aussie
& silver calls hit all targets, while gold was stopped out. See the
final paragraph for more detail.
The risk rally that started
yesterday after Spain released its budget figures continued throughout
the Asian and at the beginning of the London session. The common
currency was able to push to 1.2955 but it gave up a part of its gains
and now trades around 1.2930. The buck started to recover against other
majors as well.
The door to the ECB bond buying is more open now
and market participants assume that there would not be further austerity
measures required. However, Spanish bank stress test results are due
later today so the sentiment could easily turn again. Furthermore, MNI
reports that Moody's could change Spanish ratings as they said in June
that they would do so within three months. Rating is now one notch above
junk and on review for a downgrade.
Eurozone CPI was
significantly above expectations as it rose to 2.7% from 2.6% y/y while
analysts predicted easing to 2.4%. Higher price level is attributed to
rising energy prices, higher prices of services and also increases due
to higher sales tax that were introduced as part of measures designed to
cut budget deficits. CPI further above the ECB 2% target makes a rate
cut less likely.
Other data showed that German retail sales rose
0.3% in August after 1.0% decline seen in July which translates to -0.8%
from -1.6% improvement on annual basis. Swiss KOF economic barometer
index rose in September to 1.67 from 1.59.
The US session starts
at 8:30 am ET with core PCE that is expected to rise 0.1% in August from
previous unchanged figure but remain steady at 1.6% on annual basis.
Personal income is seen lower at 0.2% yet personal spending is
anticipated to rise 0.5%. Canadian GDP is expected to slow in July to
0.1% from 0.2% m/m and to 2.0% from 2.4% y/y.
Chicago PMI is due
at 9:45 am and it is seen marginally lower at 52.9 from previous 53.0.
Final result of UoM consumer confidence comes 10 minutes later and
revision lower to 79.0 from 79.2 is expected.
1 AUDUSD and 1
silver hit all targets while both EURUSD, 1 GBPUSD, 1 silver,1 EURJPY, 1
CADJPY are in progress. 1 gold and 1 EURJPY were stopped out. Direct
access to trades, charts and rationale can be found directly in here:
http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=683 Non subscribers can join here:
http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ -Patrik Urban
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