Thursday, September 24, 2009

This is probably it. Get ready for USD bounce

USD retraced all of the losses it incurred during the London session following weaker German Ifo 91.3 vs exp. 92.1 and especially after weaker US existing home sales 5.10M vs. exp. 5.36M. GBPUSD melted down from 6385 to 6067(!). USDCAD jumped from 0707 to 0890 as wti crude is hammered to 66.40 and AUDUSD dropped from 8770 to 8667 as XAUUSD dropped from 1019 to 993. USD index jumped from 76.10 to 76.79. Strength in the buck is reflected in the S&P which is currently in the red by about 0.9%. Unless the buck retraces these gains, which looks unlikely at this point as there are no more news releases, daily charts will show a very toppish formations.

Further USD strength is likely as dollar negative momentum is exhausted and traders have started to close the USD shorts to realize profits especially because of the G20 meeting. Buy USD on pullbacks to 10-20 hour ema.

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