Wednesday, September 16, 2009

EURUSD breaks 12/18/2008 highs

No stopping for EURUSD. The european currency breached another major resistance level at 1.4718 from 12/18/2008 and reached a high of 1.4733 after another round of USD selling. USD index broke below the 76.50 and reached a low of 76.15. Increasing price of gold and oil contributed to USD weakness.

As mentioned yesterday, GBPUSD continues to bump up against a resistance at 6490 which propped EURGBP up to 8926 a level not seen since beginning of May.

On fundamental front: US headline CPI surprised to the upside coming at 0.4% exp. 0.3% while core came as expected at 0.1%. However, TIC data came much lower than expected (15.3B vs. exp. 65.3B, 90.2B last) showing slowing foreign demand for US assets.

EURUSD will correct, it is just a question of time. Considering recent run-up, the correction is not too far. However, no sense trying to pick a top. The trend is up as long as 4630 does not give way. So continue buying EURUSD on pullbacks. Be aggressive with taking profits though.

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