Friday, August 21, 2009

USD sold across the board as data surprises to the upside

USD is sold across the board as German services PMI surprises with a number much better than anticipated. After many months of contraction we got 54.1 (number above 50 indicating expansion). US data surprised with existing home sales that were significantly better than expected. As a consequence risk appetite came back, equity markets jumped up and are currently up triple digits, oil and gold are up sending USD and JPY (safe haven currencies) down. However, in case of GBP the chart does not really look that good. Initial GBP buying was quickly followed by strong selling pressure indicating that GBP move was caused by USD weakness not GBP strength. In case of EURUSD and USDCHF moving averages are stacked nicely indicating further USD weakness. In case of GBP the moving averages started to indicate further USD stregth. GBP weakness can be nicely observed when looking at bullish EURGBP formation. Selling GBPUSD on strength continues to be the preferred strategy.

Good trades.

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