Sunday, August 23, 2009

Sticking to long USDCHF in medium term

USDCHF broke down to test lows from May 2nd and August 3rd. Stop at 1.0490 still valid and for now relatively safe. I'd recommend adding to the long position at current levels targeting price around 1.08. Unless price breaks down significantly daily stochastics are about to cross giving a bulling cross over signal. Patience pays as stochastics are often oversold for many days in a row. As pointed in previous posts, oil is at very important level. If oil breaks back down to around 71-70 level, it could indicate a failure of risk taking trades suggesting prolong pullback in high yielding currencies and USD strength. We could see USD sell during Monday and then "turn around Tuesday" could bring new USD strength.

Gold chart shows a very bullish candle. However, there are numerous resistance levels. 958 first then trend line resistance at 967. Risk trades up on Monday, spectacular failure and "turn around Tuesday" is what I expect.

Good Trades.



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