Monday, August 31, 2009

Changing market dynamics: equities and commodities down and USD down as well

Interesting developments today. Staggering 5.6% loss in Chinese equities is weighting on commodities as oil slips back below the key $70 price level and gold has not been able to sustain last week's gains either. US equities are currently down about 1%. Over the past many months such price action would imply strength in the buck. Not today. USD is down across the board. Even USDCAD is barely changed despite the fall in oil. JPY is the broad winner today after democratic party won Japanese election for the first time in 50 years.

When it comes to trading signals I'd recommend buying USDCAD especially in light of today's worse than expected GDP number (0.1% vs 0.2% expected) and falling oil price. USDCAD just touched our 30 hour ema which warrants a long position with stop at swing low bellow 1.0955. Williams' %R pretty close to oversold levels confirms this setup.

Good trades.

No comments:

Post a Comment