Další QE ve Velké Británii chtěl jediný člen MPC

21.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) se vůči americkému dolaru (USD) v průběhu asijské seance propadla přibližně o 90 pipů k 1,2735 poté, co Euroskupina ukončila jednání bez finálního rozhodnutí o řecké pomoci. Ministři financí eurozóny se opět setkají příští pondělí 26. listopadu.

I když se snažil šéf Euroskupiny Jean-Claude Juncker uklidnit trhy komentářem o tom, že jednání byla přerušena pouze kvůli technickým drobnostem, německý ministr financí Wolfgang Schäuble řekl, že co se týče finanční pomoci Řecku, mezi ministry financí nepanuje žádná shoda. I tak ale měnový pár EUR/USD posílil zpátky k hranici 1,2800, kde se i nadále obchoduje.

Zápis z posledního jednání komise Bank of England (tzv. MPC - Monetary Policy Committee) ukázal, že hlasování pro ponechání základní sazby na 0,5 % bylo jednohlasné. Hlasování o dalším uvolňování, ale ukázalo osm hlasů proti a jediný hlas pro. Ten patřil Davidovi Milesovi, který hlasoval pro další kvantitativní uvolňování (QE) v hodnotě 25 miliard GBP. Zápis dále ukázal, že komise pravděpodobně v blízké budoucnosti nesníží základní úrokovou sazbu. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje kolem 1,5910, přibližně 20 pipů pod dnešní maximální hodnotou.

Zbytek zde:

http://www.fxstreet.cz/dalsi-qe-ve-velke-britanii-chtel-jediny-clen-mpc.html

Patrik Urban

Euro Frozen on Greek Impasse, Jobless Claims Next

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3681
November 21, 2012 07:22 ET : 

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No decision from Eurogroup, next meeting on 11/26; MPC voted 9:0 on rates and 8:1 on QE; German auction. Market turns to jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI and UoM consumer confidence revision.Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see below the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side. 

The common currency dropped nearly 90 points during the Asian session after yet another Eurogroup meeting ended with no agreement on Greek aid. EZ finance ministers will meet again on Monday 11/26. Even though the Eurogroup head J. C. Juncker attempted to calm the markets by saying that the meeting was only interrupted to allow more technical work, German finance minister Schaeuble said there was no agreement among the finance ministers. Nevertheless, EURUSD recovered from 1.2735 to 1.2800

The minutes from the latest MPC meeting revealed unanimous voting to keep rates on hold at 0.5% but a 8:1 split regarding QE. Only David Miles voted for GBP 25 bln in further easing. The MPC noted that it is unlikely to cut the Bank rate in the foreseeable future. Public sector net borrowing declined in October to GBP 6.5 bln from September's GBP 9.9 bln. GBPUSD trades around 1.5910 which is about 20 points below session high.

The JPY continues to decline on anticipation of more aggressive monetary easing. The reported barrier at 82.00 was broken and the pair currently trades around 82.25

Germany allotted EUR 3.253 bln of 10 year bund vs. EUR 4 bln target. The average yield declined to 1.4% vs. previous 1.56% and cover was unchanged at 1.5.

Because of the tomorrow's Thanksgiving holidays, jobless claims will be published today at 8:30 am ET. They are seen at 415K after soaring to 439K the week earlier. Markit manufacturing PMI comes at 9:00 am and it is anticipated to rise slightly in November to 51.2 from 51.0 and finally the university of Michigan consumer sentiment is due at 9:55 am and it is expected to be revised lower to 84.3 from the initial estimate 84.9. 

Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see here the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ p_sub01/ USDJPY%20W%20M%20Q%20Nov%2014%202012.jpg_640W.gif 

Patrik Urban

EUR/USD ignoruje snížení ratingu Francie

20.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) se vůči americkému dolaru (USD) nadále obchoduje kolem hladiny 1,2800 a to i přes snížení ratingu Francie o jeden stupeň z AAA na AA1 s negativním výhledem. Toto snížení také pravděpodobně povede ke změně ratingu fondů EFSF a ESM.

Trhy dnes čekají na výsledek jednání ministrů financí eurozóny v Bruselu o odeslání další části finanční pomoci Řecku. Všeobecně se sice očekává pozitivní výsledek, ale šance, že uvidíme klasickou situace "nakup zvěsti a prodej fakta", je poměrně vysoká.

Měnový pár USD/JPY mírně poklesl k 81,15 poté, co Japonská centrální banka (BOJ) ponechala sazby beze změny v rozmezí 0-0,1 % a neohlásila žádné další uvolňování. Pozornost se nyní upře na volby 16/12 a poté na další zasedání BOJ 19/12, kdy se pravděpodobně dalšího uvolňování dočkáme. USD/JPY  se nyní obchoduje kolem 81,35 a klíčový support zůstává kolem 80,50.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/eurusd-ignoruje-snizeni-ratingu-francie.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.cz/eurusd-ignoruje-snizeni-ratingu-francie.html
Patrik Urban

Euro Shrugs France Downgrade, Onto Bernanke

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3678
November 20, 2012 08:00 ET :

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French downgrade; EZ finance ministers meeting; no changes from BOJ; German PPI lower; Spanish auction. Real estate market data and Lacker and Bernanke speeches ahead. Bernankes speech at the NY Econ Club will be of particular importance as these annual appearances are known to cause volatility. 5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades.

EURUSD faces a confluence of resistance at 1.2820s 200-DMA (previous support now a resistance) and trendline resistance from Oct 17. The common currency continues to trade around 1.28 despite the downgrade by Moody's that cut French AAA rating one notch to Aaa1 with negative outlook. The downgrade is likely to affect EFSF/ESM rating as well.

Markets are awaiting a decision from the Eurozone finance ministers who are meeting in Brussels to determine the release of the next tranche of Greek aid.
USDJPY slipped slightly to 81.15 after the BOJ left rates unchanged between 0-0.1% and did not announce any new easing. Focus turns to the election on 12/16 and the next BOJ meeting on 12/19 when new easing is likely. USDJPY recovered the losses and trades around 81.40.

In other news, German PPI was flat in October m/m but the annual print slowed to 1.5% from 1.7% and Spain sold 12 and 18 month bonds worth EUR 4.94 bln, above its EUR 3.5-4.5 bln target.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with building permits that are expected to decline in October to 0.87M from previous 0.89M while housing starts are anticipated to fall to 0.84M from 0.87M.

Markets will also focus on the Richmond FED president and the FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker's speech on monetary policy that begins at 9:00 am and especially on the FED chairman Bernanke's speech on economic recovery and policy that is scheduled to begin at 12:15 pm. Audience questions are expected so the volatility could heighten even after the speech has concluded.

5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades. 3 trades were stopped out as final targets were missed by 10-15 pips. Find out the rationale of these trading ideas and understand the breakdown of multi-time frame stochastic analysis. Direct access to the latest Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Nears 1.28; Existing Home Sales Next

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3675
November 19, 2012 08:06 ET :

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Riskier assets gain; JPY retraces gains ahead of BOJ; Italian industrial orders fell. Market awaits existing home sales. Remaining Premium longs for EURUSD await final target at 1.2840. Premium we posted below the 2 charts for cable to explain the rationale for the latest Premium positions, 1 of which hit all targets. Also, 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.

The current trading week that is shorter due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holidays started on a positive note. Risk trades were pushing higher during Asia and throughout the London session. European equities are gaining over 1% and the relative strength winner is NZD while USD is the weakest.

Friday's optimistic comments on the progress regarding the fiscal cliff along with chatter that Greece will be given the next tranche of aid at tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting underpinned the riskier assets. However, the uncertainty that comes from the ongoing tensions in the middle ease could easily change the whole market sentiment around.

USDJPY is losing a portion of its recent gains ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision as it trades around 81.15. New easing seems more likely to be announced at the following BOJ meeting on December 19th after the election in mid December than tomorrow. Further retracement therefore seems likely. Key short term support is around 80.40.

Italian industrial orders fell sharply in September by 4.2% after growing 2.7% in August. On annual basis the third largest economy of the Eurozone lost 12.8% of orders. EURUSD trades around 1.2770.

The sole item on the US data calendar is existing home sales that are expected to rise marginally to 4.76M in October from previous 4.75M.

1 of 2 Premium cable longs hit all targets. Here are the 2 cable charts used to help explain the rationale http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ p_sub01/ GBPUSD%20D%20W%20%20Nov%2014%20Oct%2012.jpg_640W.gif The piece also focuses on the timing of the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new gold, and GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Patrik Urban

FXstreet.cz: Pravidelný FOREX videokomentář

19.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku.

Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

Chinese Warn Of Fiscal Cliff; TICS Data & IP Is Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3673
November 16, 2012 07:34 ET :

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Chinese warning of fiscal cliff; EZ current account declined but trade account rose; Japanese lower house dissolved. Focus is on TIC flows; capacity utilization and industrial production. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.

The greenback is higher across the board in the ongoing session. European equities are losing around 0.5% and the relative strength winner is USD while NZD is the weakest.

The fiscal cliff is in the spotlight again and it is unlikely to change any time soon. Chinese vice finance minister Guangyao said that a failure to solve it would be disastrous to the US, it would be a serious shot to the world economy and it would drag Chinese growth by 1.2 percentage points, MNI reports.

On the data front we learned that Eurozone current account balance declined in September to EUR 0.8 bln from EUR 10.9 bln while the trade surplus rose to EUR 11.3 bln from EUR 8.9 bln.

In other news, UK chancellor Osborne is about to start the second round of interviews for BOE's governorship and Japanese lower house was dissolved which paves way for elections on 12/16.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with Canadian foreign securities purchases that are expected to rise to CAD 7.45 bln in September from previous CAD 6.9 bln. US TIC flows are due 30 minutes later and they are seen lower at USD 75 bln from USD 90 bln.

Capacity utilization will flash on traders' screens at 9:15 am and it is anticipated marginally higher in October at 78.4% from 78.3% while industrial production is expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.4%.

This week's last risk event is the FOMC member Dennis Lockhart's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy that is scheduled to start at 3:45 pm ET.

Gold survived one of the 2 stop and is nearing the 1700 figure. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patril Urban

JPY dále oslabuje; negativní úrok u BOJ?

15.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) posílila kvůli fámám o tom, že Španělsko zažádá Mezinárodní měnový fond o pomoc namísto žádosti o oficiální pomoc od Evropské centrální banky. Španělský ministr financí tuto zprávu odmítl a dodal, že Španělsko se stále nerozhodlo zda o pomoc zažádá.

Měnové páry s japonským jenem (JPY) pokračují v růstu, tentokrát kvůli slovům šéfa japonské opozice Shinzo Abe, který chce začít spolupracovat s Japonskou centrální bankou (Bank of Japan - BOJ) s cílem oslabit domácí měnu. Shinzo Abe, který by se mohl snadno stát příštím premiérem také dodal, že by centrální banka mohla nastavit negativní úrokové sazby.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/jpy-dale-oslabuje-negativni-urok-u-boj.html

Patrik Urban

Eurozone in Recession, Yen Damaged, US Jobless & CPI Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3671
November 15, 2012 07:37 ET :

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JPY falls further; European GDP above expectations; UK retail sales disappointed. Busy session ahead includes CPI, jobless claims; empire state and Philly fed manufacturing and Bernanke's speech. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. See more below.

The common currency pushed higher on rumor that Spain would ask the IMF for a credit line instead of requesting an official bailout. Spanish economy minister rejected this notion and added that Spain has not decided whether to request ECB aid.

JPY pairs continue to push higher on comments from Japan's main opposition leader Shinzo Abe who wants to work with the BOJ to reverse the trend of JPY strength and who also suggested that the BOJ could set interest rates below zero to enhance lending. Abe is leading in polls and could become the next PM.

A slew of Q3 GDP data was released during the European session. French and German GDP both rose 0.2% which was better than analysts expected. On the other hand Italian GDP contracted -0.2% and the whole Eurozone economy fell 0.1%. Nevertheless even these results were slightly above expectations. Eurozone CPI remained steady at 2.5% and the core stayed at 1.5%

UK retailers experienced the largest sales decline in six months as the volume fell 0.8% in October after growing 0.5% in the prior month. GBPUSD initially weakened to 1.5827 but quickly recovered and trades around 1.5850. EURGBP trades higher around 0.8055.

Busy US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with CPI that is expected to rise to 2.1% in October from previous 2.0% y/y. The core figure is seen steady at 2.0%. Jobless claims are seen higher at 372K from last week's 355K and empire state manufacturing is seen lower in November at -7.2 from previous -6.2. Philly FED manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated to decline to 1.1 from previous 5.7.

Markets are also awaiting the FED chairman Bernanke's speech on housing and mortgage markets in Atlanta that is scheduled to start at 1:20 pm ET.

5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban