Wednesday, December 19, 2012

EUR Pushes Higher On Solid Ifo; Real Estate Data Next

German Ifo rose; MPC 8-1 against QE; EURJPY hit 2012 high. Market turns to real estate data and later to NZ GDP.

The greenback is mixed in the ongoing session. EUR, GBP and CHF are stronger but AUD and NZD weakened. European equities are gaining about 0.5%.

The common currency pushed higher after the German Ifo Business climate bested expectations. It rose in December to 102.4 from previous 101.4, the expectations sub index rose to 97.9 and the current assessment fell to 107.1. EURUSD trades around 1.3275.

The MPC 9-0 to keep rates steady and 8-1 against further QE. David Miles was the only member who voted for GBP 25 bln in additional asset purchases. The MPC agreed with the treasuries decision to use coupons from BOE gilt portfolio to reduce T-bill issuance in 2012-13. CBI reported sales fell in December to 19 from previous 33. GBPUSD trades near session high around 1.6295 with an important weekly resistance just above.

JPY selling continued across the board during the London session. USDJPY rose to 84.55 and EURJPY hit fresh 2012 highs at 112.24.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with housing starts that are expected to decline in November to 0.87M from previous 0.89M while building permits are seen higher at 0.88M from 0.87M.

NZD traders are awaiting Q3 GDP due at 4:45 pm ET that is forecasted to slow to 0.4% from prior 0.6% q/q and to 2.5% from 2.6% y/y. The kiwi lost a large part of recent gains against the rest of the majors so a disappointing result would imply further downside. 

Patrik Urban

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