Canada GDP, Chicago PMI Next

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3395
June 29, 2012 08:00 ET :

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Direct recapitalization of banks and Eurozone wide banking supervision; periphery yields decline; German retail sales fall and Eurozone CPI steady. Market turns to German vote, core PCE, personal spending, Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP. Link to Aahraf's London seminar on Saturday is below.

The greenback trades sharply lower after EU leaders introduced a plan for a region wide financial supervision by the ECB and a mechanism that will allow the EFSF/ESM direct recapitalization of troubled banks. EU leaders also agreed to relax repayment rules for loans to Spanish banks and allowed a degree of flexibility with austerity conditions, MNI reports. Reports also said that the ESM would not have preferred creditor status in case of Spanish aid.
Spanish and Italian 10 year yields initially declined but started to move up again (currently 6.61% and 5.94%). European Equity indices are still trading sharply higher, some by about 2.5% but moved off their highs. There has been no follow-through on the fx front either.

The EU summit in Brussels continues today so markets are likely to react to headlines with more accurate details. Traders will also focus on German parliament that votes today on the ESM and fiscal compact bills.

In other news, German retail sales declined in May 0.3% from previous -0.2% m/m (-1.1% from -4.3% y/y), Swiss KOF economic barometer improved in June to 1.16 from 0.60 and Eurozone CPI was steady and in line with expectations in June at 2.4%.

LINK TO ASHRAF'S SATURDAY SEMINAR IN LONDON:

http://seminars.cityindex.co.uk/ cgi-bin/ seminars.cgi?rm=show_event_details&se_id=956&interaction_id=4

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with core PCE that is seen higher in May at 0.2% from previous 0.1%. Personal spending is anticipated to slow to 0.1% from previous 0.3%.

Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am and it is expected to rise marginally in June to 52.8 from 52.7 and consumer sentiment that comes 10 minutes later is expected to be revised higher to 74.2 from initial 74.1.

Canadian GDP is due at 8:30 am ET and it is expected to rise in April 0.2% from previous 0.1% m/m (1.8% from 1.6% y/y).

Patrik Urban

Očekávání rozhodné akce je pryč, USD posiluje

28.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americká měna (USD) posílila proti všem hlavním měnám s výjimkou japonského jenu (JPY) poté, co německý vládní činitel prohlásil, že summit EU, který začíná dnes a pokračuje zítra, nepřinese žádná zásadní rozhodnutí. Očekávání trhu v průběhu týdne už tak klesalo a je proto pravděpodobné, že hledání bezpečného přístavu bude pokračovat. První pracovní schůzka by měla začít krátce po 16:00 hodině.

Fundamentální reporty pokračovaly v trendu zhoršování, když se ukázalo, že index obchodního prostředí v eurozóně propadl v červnu na -0,94 z -0,79 a že spotřební důvěra byla zrevidována níž a to na -19,8 z -19,6. Německá nezaměstnanost vzrostla o 7 tisíc, ale míra nezaměstnanosti zůstala beze změny na 6,8%. Měnový pár EUR/USD se propadl z 1,2520 na 1,2406 a v současné době se obchoduje kolem 1,2417.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/ocekavani-rozhodne-akce-je-pryc-usd-posiluje.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

USD Firms Amid Faltering Hopes of EU Action, Ashraf w/ Tom Keene

 
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3393
 
June 28, 2012 07:58 ET :

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Expectations for a decisive action drop; European data deteriorate; German unemployment rate unchanged; UK GDP unrevised q/q but lower y/y; UK current account deficit wider; Italian auction. Focus on final GDP, jobless claims and EU summit. Ashraf will be with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio at 8:30 am EST (13:30 BST). Link provided below.

The USD moved higher across the board except JPY on reports from a German official who said that no decisive actions will be taken at the EU summit that starts today in Brussels. Market expectations for a solution of the ongoing crises have been declining so safe haven flows should underpin the buck if nothing concrete and decisive emerges from the summit that ends tomorrow. The first working session is scheduled to start shortly after 2:00 pm GMT (10:00 am ET).

Data reports continued on the deterioration path as Eurozone business climate declined in June to -0.94 from previous -0.79 and consumer confidence was revised lower to -19.8 from initial estimate -19.6. German unemployment rose 7K in June from May's 1K but at least the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.8%. EURUSD fell from 2520 to 2406 and currently trades around 1.2430.

UK current account deficit widened to GBP -11.18 bln from previous GBP -7.23 bln and the final Q1 GDP remained unrevised q/q at -0.3% but the annualized result was revised lower to -0.2% from initial estimate -0.1%.
UK nationwide HPI dropped 1.5% in June from previous -0.7% y/y which is the lowest result in nearly three years. GBPUSD trades around 1.5550.

Italy was able to sell 2017 and 2022 BTPs totaling EUR 4.79 bln vs. EUR 5.5 bln target. Average yields rose and cover was mixed. 10 year yield hit the highest level since January 6.284% while the Spanish 10 year yields 7%.

According to the ECB banks borrowed EUR 5.21 bln via the overnight facility yesterday, significantly more compared to yesterday's EUR 3.09bln. EUR 772.58 bln was deposited.

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with third reading of Q1 GDP which is expected to remain unrevised at 1.9% y/y and jobless claims that are seen slightly lower this week at 385K from previous 387K.

Even though trading today is likely to be driven by headlines, rumors and unconfirmed reports, the market could also respond to speeches by FOMC member Sandra Pianalto at 11:30 am and MPC member Martin Weale at 1:00 pm.

Ashraf will be with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio at 8:30 am EST (13:30 BST). Link provided below http://www.bloomberg.com/ radio/

Patrik Urban

Trhy drží pásma před summitem EU

27.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Trhy se před zítřejším summitem EU obchodují v úzkých pásmech kvůli zvyšujícím se obavám, že summit nepředstaví žádné nové a rozhodující kroky k vyřešení existující krize. Kancléřka Merkelová totiž včera opět a zcela rezolutně odmítla možnost společného dluhopisu.

Japonská dolní komora parlamentu odsouhlasila zvýšení DPH z 5% na 10% ve dvou krocích do října 2015. Pokud rozhodnutí podpoří i horní komora, s čímž se počítá, tak půjde o první navýšení DPH od roku 1997. Měnový pár USD/JPY nejdříve mírně oslabil, později ale vymazal ztráty a nyní se obchoduje kolem 79,70.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trhy-drzi-pasma-pred-summitem-eu.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

USD Firms Ahead of EU Summit Deadlock

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3388

June 27, 2012 08:42 ET :

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Japan's lower house approves tax hike; German CPI still being collected; UK BBA mortgage approvals lowest in over a year; Italian auction and business confidence; Spain could hike VAT. US May durable goods orders rose 1.% after 2 down months, w/ 0.4% ex transport. pending home sales. Latest Premium Insights from Tuesday night includes new trades on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and existing trades in gold and USDCAD. See more below.

USD firms ahead of the EU summit as concerns that the summit will fail to produce anything concrete and meaningful are mounting. Meanwhile, chancellor Merkel meets president Hollande today in Paris and German budget committee deliberates and votes on the ESM and the fiscal compact bills.

Moody's downgrade of 2 Austrian bank notes may cast doubt on German bank exposure.

Japan's lower house voted to double the sales tax from 5 to 10% by October 2015. If it is approved by the upper house, which is expected and becomes a law then it would be the first tax hike since 1997. JPY initially slightly weakened but later regained ground. USDJPY trades around 79.50.
German June CPI is still being collected and the result is due later today. Analysts expect a flat reading after a 0.2% decline seen in May. German import prices declined 0.7% in May after falling 0.5% in April.

UK BBA mortgage approvals declined in May to 30.2K from April's 32.1K which is the lowest since 04/2011 while net mortgage lending hit record low. GBP initially weakened but CBI realized sales that soared in June to 42 from previous 21 helped the currency to recover its losses. CBI sales grew at the fastest pace since 12/2010. GBPUSD trades around 1.5625 while EURGBP retraced towards 0.7995.

Italy reached its target value as it sold EUR 9 bln of 6 month BOT. The average yield rose to 2.957% from 2.104% and cover improved to 1.62 from 1.61. Italian business confidence increased in June to 88.9 from 86.6.
Spanish 10 year yield is little changed around 6.86% amid speculation that the VAT could be hiked for some items, removing them from the discounted tax rate. Meanwhile, May retail sales dropped 4.9% y/y.

US May durable goods rose 1.1%, better than the expected 0.5% following 2 straight down months. Pending home sales are due at 10:00 am ET and they are seen higher at 1.2% in May from previous -5.5%.

Tuesday evenings Premium Trades are posted in the following link: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=659 Non Subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

EU Nears Eurobonds, US Consumer Confidence Awaited

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3385
 
June 26, 2012 08:21 ET :

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Cyprus requests aid; EU moves closer to common debt; German GfK rose; BoE's King comments; UK PSNB higher; Italian retail sales drop. Market turns to S&P Case Shiller and CB consumer confidence. Link to Ashrafs London Seminar this Saturday is below.

Euro remains inside 1.2480-1.2530 range despite the official request for emergency funding by Cyprus. The application was received only a few hours after Spain has submitted its request. EUR 10 bln is being considered for the EUR 17.3 bln economy and Cyprus is the 5th out of 17 Eurozone members that had to seek rescue aid.

LINK TO ASHRAF'S LONDON SEMINAR THIS SATURDAY

bit.ly/LkPDfQ

At the beginning of the London session EURUSD moved higher on Reuters report that common debt and other forms of fiscal solidarity could be considered in the EU fiscal union. Rate rose to 1.2530 but quickly sold off back to 2480.

German GfK consumer confidence continues to defy the ongoing crises as the index rose to 5.8 for July from previous 5.7. However, economic expectations component dropped 16.6 points to 3 after increasing for three months back to back. EURGBP breached 0.8000 support and trades around 0.7988.

BoE governor King said during the Treasury committee hearings that a rate cut has not been ruled out and that bond purchases can provide bigger stimulus. He showed pessimism towards the Eurozone, while stating the UK is not close to a liquidity trap. The market is currently pricing in only 9% probability of a BOE cut on July 5th. UK public sector net borrowing soared in May reaching a GBP 15.6 bln deficit after 19.9 bln surplus a month earlier.

In other news: Swiss UBS consumption indicator fell in May to 1.05 from 1.37 and Italian retail sales dropped 6.8% in April from previous 1.5% on annual basis which is the sharpest fall in over 10 years.

Spain reached a full take up again, selling bills totaling EUR 3.08 bln vs. 3 bln target. However, average yields rose significantly and bid to cover declined.

The NY session starts today at 9:00 am ET with S&P Case Shiller HPI that is expected to decline 2.4% in April after falling 2.6% a month earlier followed by CB consumer confidence at 10:00 am which is seen lower in June at 63.8 from 64.9. Any reading below January's 61.5 is likely to be the lowest since 41 reached in October.

Patrik Urban

Averze k riziku se zvyšuje; EURUSD zpět pod 1.2500

26.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) se držela v průběhu asijské seance na relativně silných hodnotách a to i přes zprávy, že Kypr bude další zemí, která se neobejde bez finanční pomoci. Tato zpráva přišla pouze několik hodin po oficiální žádosti ze strany Španělska. Mluví se až o 10 miliardách eur, což je více něž polovina celé kyperské ekonomiky (17,3 miliardy eur). Kypr se tak stal již pátou zemí eurozóny, která musí žádat o mezinárodní finanční pomoc.

Na začátku londýnské seance měnový pár EUR/USD vzrostl kvůli reportu agentury Reuters, která popisovala, že společný dluh a další typy fiskální solidarity by po vytvoření fiskální unie přicházely v úvahu. Kurz posilnil na 1,2530, ale brzy se propadl zpět pod hladinu 1,2500.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/averze-k-riziku-se-zvysuje-eurusd-zpet-pod-12500.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

FOREX Trading: Pohled na aktuální trhy

25.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku. Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

 
http://www.fxstreet.cz/forex-trading-pohled-na-aktualni-trhy-2562012.html


Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

Yen Leads Amid Heightened Risk Aversion

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3382

June 25, 2012 09:15 ET :

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Greece and EU summit; Spanish PPI and 10 year yield rose; German auction; sovereign issuance. Market awaits new home sales. Details on Premium Insights below.

Risk off sentiment grips markets since the Asia open. USD is higher across the board except JPY that rose sharply. European equities are losing between 0.9% and 2% and the relative strength winner is JPY.

Greek PM Samaras as well as the finance minister Rapanos will miss the EU summit on Thursday and Friday as both are in the hospital (PM underwent an eye surgery while the finance minister's illness has not been disclosed). The foreign minister along with outgoing finance minister will attend the summit instead and are expected to ask for an adjustment of terms surrounding the bailout. Trading is likely to remain range bound ahead of the critically important summit and a failure to present clear and decisive steps to deal with the ongoing crisis would likely result in a swift EUR decline. German government spokesman already suggested that no decisions on Greece will be made at the summit.

The only data released throughout the London session was Spanish PPI that rose 3.2% in May from previous 3.0% y/y. Spanish 10 year yield moved higher from about 6.35% to current 6.53% after Spain formally requested bank recapitalization aid.

Germany sold 12 month bills totaling EUR 2.04 bln vs. 3 bln target. The average yield fell to record low 0.0191% from previous 0.0264% but cover improved.

Eurozone sovereign bond issuance from Germany, France, Spain and Italy is expected to reach EUR 22 bln this week, up from last week's EUR 16.78 bln, MNI reports. According to their own calculations, Eurozone's sovereign issuance this year has reached over EUR 441 bln, which is about 55.1% of the total 2012 funding needs.

The US data is limited today to new home sales that are seen marginally higher in May at 347K from previous 343K. Existing home sales that can be used to estimate the trend were slightly below expectations ast Thursday so we might get somewhat weaker print today.

Both EURJPY longs & 1 GBPJPY long stopped out. The latest Premium Insights are found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=658 Non subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ 

Patrik Urban 

Německá data opět zklamala

22.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Posilování amerického dolaru (USD), které začalo včera kvůli snížení ratingu 15 globálních bank agenturou Moodys pokračuje i dnes. Zatím ale pouze proti komoditním měnám, které se propadly pod včerejší minima. Oproti zbytku hlavních měn se USD obchoduje jenom o málo silnější. Hlavní evropské akciové trhy se obchodují v rozmezí -0,6% až -0,1%.

Německý IFO index podnikatelského prostředí se zhoršil více než se očekávalo, protože v červnu spadl na 105,3 z 106,9, což je nejnižší hodnota od března 2010. Optimismu nepřidalo ani to, že subindex současných podmínek se zlepšil na 113,9 z 133,3, což ovšem pravděpodobně bylo kvůli velkému pádu, který tento komponent zaznamenal minulý měsíc.Nejistota kolem eurozóny se začíná promítat do situace v Německu a pokračující zhoršování německých dat (PMI, ZEW i IFO) naznačují, že Německo opravdu není imunní vůči pokračující evropské krizi. To zvyšuje riziko, že se německá ekonomika zastaví nebo dokonce propadne zpátky do recese. Tlak na Evropskou centrální banku (ECB), aby snížila základní sazbu, bude pravděpodobně vzrůstat. Měnový pár EUR/USD se propadl na 1,2520, ale byl schopen smazat část ztrát a obchoduje se kolem 1,2560.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/nemecka-data-opet-zklamala.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

Weak German Data; Canadian CPI Next

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3378

June 22, 2012 08:08 ET :

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German confidence deteriorates; SNB bulletin; WTI and periphery yields. Focus turns to Canadian consumer inflation.4 new charts & 10 new trades added in Thursday nights Premium Insights, including GBPJPY, EURJPY & EURUSD. See more below.

The USD rally that started on the back of Moody's downgrade of 15 global banks continues against commodity dollars that broke yesterday's lows but stalled against the rest of the majors. European equities are trading between -0.1% and -0.6%.

German IFO business climate declined slightly more than expected in June to 105.3 from 106.9 which is the lowest print since 03/2010 and the expectations component fell to 97.3 from 100.8. The silver lining of the report is the current conditions indicator that unexpectedly rose to 113.9 after a sharp fall in May to 113.3.

The uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone is impacting the German economy and deteriorating data (PMIs, ZEW, IFO) prove that Germany is not immune to the ongoing crises. This increases the risk that the economy will come to a halt and also adds pressure on the ECB to cut rates below current 1%. The next ECB meeting is on July 5th. EURUSD fell to 1.2520 but regained 1.2555 a few hours later.

The SNB quarterly bulletin did not reveal anything surprising and only reiterated comments about defending the Franc cap and not tolerating further appreciation. EURCHF continues to trade only a few points above the 1.20 floor.

The economic calendar is limited to Canadian CPI that is expected to ease to 0.1% from 0.4% m/m and to 1.5% from 2.0% y/y. Core CPI is seen at 0.3% from 0.4%.

WTI erased some of its previous losses as it rose from 8 month low at 77.53 to current 78.65. Spanish 10 year yield continues to decline and trades around 6.53% while the Italian bond yields 5.79%.

3 new charts on yen crosses, 1 chart on latest US business surveys and 10 new trades in the latest Premium Insights. Click here for today's full Premium Insights titled "Focusing on Yen Crosses" http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=658 Non subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Euro Resists Poor PMIs, Awaiting US Housing & Philly Fed 

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3375

June 21, 2012 08:15 ET :

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German and Eurozone PMIs weak; UK retail sales rose; Spanish auction. The NY session will bring jobless claims; markit manufacturing PMI; Philly FED and existing home sales. 1 of 2 EURJPY longs hit all targets, so did USDCAD. 8 trades in progress. In these Insights, Ashaf gives the argument for his latest bias on USDJPY. See more below.

The USD is slightly weaker against most currencies except JPY in the ongoing session and major European equity indices are losing about 0.5%.
German manufacturing PMI declined further in June to 44.7 from previous 45.2 and reached a three year low while services PMI fell to a seven month low at 50.3 from 51.8. New business intakes decreased, business outlook dropped into negative territory for the first time in 2012 and manufacturing private employment fell at the fastest rate since 1/2010.

The result for the whole Eurozone was not much better as manufacturing PMI worsened to 44.8 from 45.1 which is 36 month low and services sector slowed the rate of its decline as PMI rose marginally to 46.8 from 46.7. EURUSD dipped back to 2643 before bouncing back to 1.2687.

UK retail sales bounced back sharply in May as they grew 1.4% from April's -2.4%. However, this optimistic result is not likely to change the easing outlook as the BOE is seen extending the asset purchase program by GBP 50 bln at its July meeting. GBPUSD trades around 1.5716.

Spain reached a full take up again as it sold bonds totaling EUR 2.22 bln vs. 1-2 bln target. Cover improved but all average yields rose. Spanish 10 year yields eased from 6.76% session high to current 6.53%.

WTI broke below the 80 mark for the first time since October 2011 and hit 79.93. It erased a part of the loss and currently trades around 80.50.
The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower this week at 381K from 386K followed by Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:00 am which is expected to slow in June to 53.4 from 54.0.

Philly FED index and existing home sales are due at 10:00 am and they are anticipated to rise to 0.7 in June from -5.8 and slow to 4.58M from 4.62M respectively. The last Philly Fed survey had unexpectedly tumbled to -5.8 from 8.50, which was the first negative reading since September--when Optn Twist was started.

CAD traders should note May retail sales that are due at 8:30 am ET and are seen lower at 0.2% from 0.4% (core sales higher at 0.3% from 0.1%) and the BOC governor Mark Carney's speech that starts at 11:45 am ET.

One of yesterdays two EURJPY longs hit all targets, USDCAD long hit all targets, while both EURUSD and USDJPY are in progress as is the gold long. Yesterdays Premium Insights PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS were issued 20 mins before the Fed decision and are in progress. USDJPY & EURJPY are brought back. Click here for direct access to today's trades. http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/?a=657 Non subscribers can click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

Evropské indexy PMI opět zklamaly

21.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) se obchoduje mírně slabší proti většině hlavním měn s výjimkou JPY. Hlavní evropské akciové indexy ztrácí kolem 0,5%.

Německý výrobní PMI index propadl za červen na hranici 44,7 z 45,2 a dosáhl tak na nejhorší výsledek za poslední tři roky. PMI služeb se propadlo na sedmi měsíční minimum na hodnotu 50,3 z 51,8. Ani subindexy nedodaly mnoho důvodů k optimismu. Nové objednávky poklesly, obchodní výhled poprvé od začátku roku zaznamenal negativní výsledek a privátní zaměstnanost se propadla nejrychlejším tempem od ledna 2010.

Výsledek pro celou eurozónu nebyl o moc lepší, protože výrobní PMI poklesl na 44,8 z 45,1 (36 měsíční minimum) a PMI služeb zpomalil míru zhoršování hodnotou 46,8 z minulého 46,7. Měnový pár EUR/USD se nejdříve propadl na 1,2643, ale dokázal smazat všechny ztráty a nyní se stále obchoduje pod hranicí 1,2700.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/evropske-indexy-pmi-opet-zklamaly.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

Rozhodnutí MPC těsné; na řadě je FOMC

20.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Britská libra (GBP) prudce oslabila poté, co zápis ze zasedání komise MPC (komise Bank of England) ze 7. června ukázal těsnější hlasování pro kvantitativní uvolňování (QE), než se očekávalo. Pět členů hlasovalo proti dalšímu uvolňování, ale čtyři členové hlasovali pro. Z nich tři (King, Miles a Posen) chtěli navýšit program pro nákup aktiv o 50 miliard liber, zatímco Paul Fisher hlasoval "pouze" pro navýšení v hodnotě 25 miliard. Nikdo ze členů nehlasoval pro snížení základní sazby. I přes prudký pokles byla GBP schopna smazat většinu ztrát a v současné době se obchoduje kolem 1,5760 proti USD a na 0,8059 proti EUR.


Žádosti o podporu v nezaměstnanosti se ve Velké Británii nečekaně zvýšily o 8,1 tisíc po minulém pádu o 12,7 tisíc což značí, že pokračující krize se začíná promítat do situace na trhu práce. Míra žádostí ale zůstala na 4,9% a nezaměstnanost zůstala na 8,2%.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/rozhodnuti-mpc-tesne-na-rade-je-fomc.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

BoE Gets Tight on QE; All Eyes On FOMC

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3372

June 20, 2012 08:35 ET :

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GBP jumps on surprisingly tight MPC minutes; UK claimant count rises but unemployment stays steady; German PPI and Swiss ZEW dropped. Market turns to FOMC statement, projections and press conference. The 2nd Aussie long hit all targets, while 1 gold long was stopped out. See rest of details below.

USD trades slightly weaker across the board in the ongoing session. European equities trade between -0.5% and +0.1%.

BoEs MPC minutes from June 7th meeting showed tighter than expected 5-4 vote against additional QE. Three members (King, Miles and Posen) voted for extra GBP 50 bln and Paul Fisher wanted to boost easing by GBP 25 bln. All members voted for rates to remain at 0.5%.

Weighing on GBP was the unexpected increase in UK jobless claims, which rose 8.1K in May from previous -12.7K implying that the labor market started to be adversely impacted by the ongoing tensions. However, the claimant count rate remained steady at 4.9% and the ILO unemployment rate stayed at 8.2%.

In other news, German PPI dropped 0.3% in May from +0.2% m/m and eased to 2.1% from previous 2.4% y/y and Swiss ZEW economic expectations dropped dramatically to -43.4 in June from -4 in May. Spanish 10 year yield eased a bit from 7.05% to current 6.92% and the Italian 10 year yield declined from 5.94% to current 5.83%. EURUSD continues to trade around 1.27.
Onto the FOMC Decision

The key event for today's NY session will be the FOMC meeting. The FOMC will release its statement at 12:30 am ET (5:30 pm BST) along with its rate decision (fed funds will remain below 0.25%). FED's economic projections are due at 2:00 pm ET and the press conference will start at 2:15 ET pm.
An extension of the ending operation twist seems to be the most likely outcome. Equity markets could be disappointed as this would not be an outright QE but the USD could still weaken as markets could, in light of recent data deterioration, still expect new QE in the coming months.

WE DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LATEST POLL BY the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) showing 65% of respondents expecting QE3 to be announced in todays meeting, with 17% expecting Operation Twist to be announced today to go into effect later this summer. If anything, we expect the extension of Operation Twist o be announced todaym, to go into effect mid-summer until September or October.
After the end of the session, market will focus on the release of New Zealand Q1 GDP at 6:45 pm that is expected to rise 0.4% from 0.3% q/q but slow to 1.3% from 1.8% y/y.

The 2nd of AUDUSD longs hit all targets, while the 2nd of GBPUSD longs is 5 pips away from hitting all targets. 1 gold long was stopped out while the other remains in progress. USDCAD long now filled and in progress. Both EURUSD longs & Crude longs were stopped out. For direct Access to these trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=647 Non subscribers can join in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

VIDEO: Pravidelný FOREX komentář 19.06.2012

http://www.fxstreet.cz/video-pravidelny-forex-komentar-19062012.html

19.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku. Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

Euro Stabilises on Spanish Auction & Greek Coalition Talks

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3369

June 19, 2012 08:12 ET :

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Greek coalition; G20 statement; UK CPI eases further; German and Eurozone ZEW drop; Spanish auction. Market turns to housing market data and Canadian wholesale sales. EURUSD & GBPUSD remain well underpinned atop their 2-week trendline supports. 1 of the 2 AUDUSD longs hit all targets, while EURUSD longs were stopped out. See the rest of the Premium Insights below.
USD eases on reports that a Greek coalition among ND, PASOK and Democratic Left parties could be formed today, and also by the G20 statement that implies continued European banking integration and tighter fiscal rules to fight the debt crisis. Market positioning ahead of tomorrow's FOMC statement also plays a role.

GBP initially sold off but quickly recovered against the USD after UK CPI eased further in May to 2.8% from 3.0% y/y. The core figure rose to 2.2% from previous 2.1%. This is the lowest print in over two years and also the first time since 1996 that May monthly CPI fell. Falling fuel prices contributed to the fall. EURGBP pushed higher to 0.8055.

EURUSD saw a similar price action as cable. It dropped to 1.2570 on disappointing ZEW results but within two hours regained all losses and currently trades above 1.2610. German ZEW economic sentiment survey for June dropped 27.7 points to -16.9 from previous 10.8 which is the sharpest fall since 10/1998. Worsening banking sector in Spain and insecurity regarding Greek election contributed to the decline. Current situation sub index declined to 33.2 from 44.1. Economic sentiment index for the Eurozone dropped to -20.1 from previous -2.4.

Spain was able to reach a full take up as it told bonds totaling EUR 3.039 bln vs. EUR 3 bln target. Bid to cover improved but average yields rose rapidly. In case of 12 month bill, the yield reached the highest level since euro inception (5.074% vs. previous 2.985%).

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with building permits that are seen higher in May at 730K from previous 715K and housing starts that are expected to rise to 720K from 717K. Today also marks the first day of the FOMC meeting.

Canadian wholesale sales that are due at the same time are seen steady in April at 0.4%.

1 of 2 AUDUSD longs hit all targets; Both EURUSD longs & Crude longs were stopped out. Both GBPUSD longs are in progress; USDCAD not yet filled; Gold nearing 1635 target, while other gold long also remains in progress. For direct Access to these trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=647 Non subscribers can join in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Euro Pares Gains on Coalition Complication

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3365

June 18, 2012 08:08 ET :

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EUro drops over a full cent against USD after Sunday's initial spike as Leftist Syriza says will not join the coalition Govt. New Democracy Party is already attempting to form a coalition to secure remaining IMF tranche; Germany implies flexibility on demanded austerity; Spanish and Italian yields continue to rise. US calendar limited to Canadian international transactions and NAHB housing index. Last nights Premium Insights are out. See more below.

The Eurozone break up catastrophe seems to have been avoided (at least for now) as the pro-bailout New Democracy that won Sunday's Greek election will attempt today to form a coalition with socialist PASOK party that also backs the bailout with its consequences. Party leaders' official meeting is scheduled to begin around 11:00 am ET. The immediate pressure has declined but optimism could quickly disappear if the governing coalition is not formed quickly. EURUSD lost a full cent as it dropped to 1.2619 and currently trades around 1.2630.

G20 meeting starts today in Mexico and continues tomorrow. The pressure will be on the European members to provide definite solutions for the European crisis. Only then can the rest of the members start preparing stimulus plan that would provide both debt reducing and pro-growth measures.

Germany seems to have softened its stance on austerity plan imposed on Athens as it implied that it is willing to renegotiate the time frame of the economic reforms implementation that partially contributed to 22.6% unemployment rate and eight quarters of declining GDP. If confirmed, such a step could ease the G20 negotiations.

Debt markets are still anxious as the Spanish 10 year yield continues to soar and trades around 7.12% while the Italian counterpart rose to 6.05%.
Data reports for the US session are limited to Canadian international securities transactions due at 8:30 am ET that are seen higher in April at CAD 3.41 bln from previous CAD -2.08 bln followed by NAHB housing market index at 10:00 am that is expected to decline marginally to 28 in June from May's 29.

Our latest Premium Insights (updated last night) on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & Gold, & Crude Oil. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ acces/ ?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

Scénář vývoje EUR/USD po řeckých volbách

15.06.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Fundamentální analýza   Tisk

O víkendu se konají volby v Řecku, které mohou rozhodnout o osudu Evropy a společné evropské měny (EUR). Výsledek nedělního hlasování totiž může vést k odchodu Řecka z eurozóny, což by dle některých analytiků mohlo zapříčinit rozpad Evropské měnové unie (EMU).

Ne že by snad řečtí voliči chtěli vystoupit z unie nebo z eurozóny. Dokonce ani většina politiků, kteří mají šanci se dostat do parlamentu, si něco takového nepřeje. Ale vítězství radikálně levicové strany Syriza by k tomu nakonec téměř jistě vedlo. Ta totiž chce ignorovat úsporná opatření nařízená EU a spoléhá na to, že peníze potečou dál. To by se samozřejmě nelíbilo EU a Řecko by bylo nuceno opustit společnou měnu. A odchodem Řecka by patrně rozpad eurozóny neskončil.

A tak se pojďme společně podívat, jaký vliv by mohl mít nedělní výsledek voleb na vývoj nejobchodovanějšího měnového páru EUR/USD. Deutsche Bank (jeden z největších subjektů na FOREXU) sestavila 6 možných scénářů na vývoj EUR/USD v následujících 6 týdnech po volbách.
Analytici z Deutsche Bank rovněž poukazují na možnost, že trh plně nereflektuje v současné hodnotě eura sice méně pravděpodobný, ale za to silně negativní vývoj, asi z důvodu vysokého množství držených EUR/USD krátkých "short" pozic (existující short pozice by v případě pohybu vzhůru musely uzavřít své pozice nakupováním a to by poslalo cenu ještě výš. Takové situaci se říká "short covering rally").

Po řeckých volbách můžeme počítat se šesti hlavními scénáři

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/scenar-vyvoje-eurusd-po-reckych-volbach.html

Patrik Urban
Tým FXstreet.cz

Zdroj: Deutsche Bank, MISH'S Global Economic Analysis

Sentiment Improves on Chatter of Coordinated Action

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3359

June 15, 2012 08:21 ET :

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Coordinated action reports; UK construction output falls and trade deficit widens; Eurozone employment declines but trade surplus higher. Market turns to Empire state manufacturing, TIC data, capacity utilization, industrial production and UoM consumer confidence. The latest on Greece is that voter polls will close Sunday 17:00 BST, (19:00 Athens time). Although there will be exit polls, media experts say they are often misleading. Initial results are expected around 20:00 BST, with a more detailed picture expected to emerge 2 hours later. Greek municipal workers plan to strike and disrupt voting centers. Find out below why Wednesdays Premium Intermarket Insights were titled Maintaining Risk-on.

USD is weaker against most majors. European equity indices are gaining between 0.5% and 1.5% and the relative strength winners are NZD and JPY while EUR lags.

Risk trades are being supported by reports that G20 is preparing coordinated action plan to inject liquidity if it is necessary after Sunday's Greek elections and also by the latest news that New Democracy is slightly ahead in the polls ahead of Syriza. It seems that additional comments about contingency plans are likely.

Ashraf mentioned that flat USD LIBOR suggests that the system is not in need of any FX swap intervention by the major central banks. He adds that the reports about central banks potentially intervening , are a statement of assurance by the authorities to step in just in case Greece event risk triggers contagion.

The BoE governor Mervyn King said yesterday that the case for further monetary easing is growing. Today's data confirm this as April construction output fell sharply in April and UK's trade deficit widened to GBP 10.1 bln from previous GBP -8.7 bln which is the second widest deficit on record. Exports to EU as well as non EU countries fell dramatically. GBPUSD fell to 1.5475 but recovered all losses and currently trades around 1.5540.

Eurozone Q1 employment declined 0.2% q/q and 0.5% y/y and the trade surplus rose in April to EUR 6.2 bln from downward revised EUR 3.7 bln. Annual exports rose 6% while imports declined 1%. EURUSD fell back to 1.2610 after trading as high as 1.2645.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with Empire state manufacturing that is expected to decline in June to 13.6 from previous 17.1 followed by net long term TIC flows at 9:00 am that are seen higher in April at USD 45.3 bln from USD 36.2 bln.

At 9:15 am the Federal Reserve will release May capacity utilization that is seen steady at 79.2% and industrial production that is anticipated to decline to 0.1% from previous 1.1%.

The last report is UoM consumer confidence that comes at 9:55 am and is expected to decline in June to 77.5 from 79.3.

Wednesdays AUDUSD longs hit all, while EURUSD & gold longs are near completion. More detail on these and other trades & gold multitime frame charts, get direct access here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ acces/ ?a=646 Non subscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban