Export Velké Británie mimo EU prudce vzrostl

11.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Jednotná evropská měna (EUR) dnes  vůči dolaru vzrostla z 1,2758 až na 1,2818 v reakci na zprávu německého nejvyššího soudu, který potvrdil, že i přes nové námitky rozhodne o fondu ESM podle plánu, tedy zítra. Dalšími faktory, které na začátku londýnské seance zlepšily sentiment byla slova šéfa MMF Mina Zhuoa, který podpořil nový program ECB určený k nákupu dluhopisů a také potvrzení finského premiéra Katainena, že všechny politické strany chtějí, aby země zůstala v eurozóně. EUR/USD později ztratil část zisků a v současné době se obchoduje níž kolem 1,2790.

Deficit na obchodním účtu Velké Británie byl jediným ranním reportem. Výsledek předčil očekávání, protože se deficit z červenci zúžil na 7,1 miliardy liber z červnových 10,1 miliardy. Jedná se o nejlepší výsledek za posledních 17 měsíců a k lepším číslům výrazně dopomohl rostoucí export do zemí mimo EU. Tento sektor vzrostl o plných 11 %, což je nejvyšší tempo za posledních 14 let. Reakce GBP/USD ale i tak byla minimální a pár stále osciluje kolem hranice 1,6020. EUR/GBP se nebyl schopen dostat nad 0,8000 a vrátil se k 0,7975.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/export-velke-britanie-mimo-eu-prudce-vzrostl.html

Patrik Urban

GBPUSD Unchanged Despite Better Data

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3540
September 11, 2012 08:25 ET :

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The greenback fell across the board during the London session but was able to recover a small part of its losses against some majors. USDJPY fell to 77.96 and USDCAD declined to 0.9723. European equity indices are losing about 0.4%.

The common currency rose sharply from 1.2758 to 1.2818 after the German constitutional court announced that they will not delay tomorrow's ESM decision despite new challenges. Other factors that contributed to the rise were comments from IMF director Min Zhu who said that he strongly supports the ECB bond buying program and also comments from the Finnish PM Jyrki Katainen who confirmed that all parties in Finland want to remain in the Eurozone. EURUSD continues to trade right below the 1.28 mark.

UK trade balance was the sole report during the London session and the deficit in July narrowed to GBP 7.1 bln from June's GBP 10.1 bln which is the best result in 17 months. The better than expected result is attributed to 11% rise in exports to non EU countries which is the fastest growth since record inception in 1998. GBPUSD reaction was muted and it continues to trade around the 1.6020.

The US session will start at 8:30 am ET with trade deficit that is expected to widen marginally to USD 44.2 bln in July from previous USD 42.9 bln. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index due at 10:00 am is anticipated to improve in September to 47.3 from 45.6.

Canadian data includes August housing starts that are due at 8:15 am ET and are seen lower at 201K from previous 208.5K followed by July trade deficit that is seen slightly narrower at CAD 1.4 bln from previous CAD 1.81 bln.

GBP could react to MPC member David Miles who speaks at 1:15 pm ET at the Scottish Annual Lecture in Edinburgh.

Patrik Urban

Risk Rally Sees No Follow Through; JPY GDP Revised Lower

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3538
September 10, 2012 07:16 ET :

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Markets consolidate; Japanese Q2 GDP revised lower; Chinese trade surplus rose; Eurozone investor confidence improved; German auction. Markets will seek hints about upcoming German court ruling and FOMC decision.

The impressive rally that markets saw after the weaker than expected NFP has seen no follow-through. EUR along with GBP are little changed while the rest of the majors are slightly lower against the buck. The only major currency that gained against the USD is CAD. European equities are just about unchanged.

The JPY has ignored a substantial revision lower of Japanese Q2 GDP and continues to trade little changed. The revision took the print from 1.4% to 0.7% q/q and on annual basis from 0.3% to 0.2%. The revision could increase the chance of further easing (the BOJ meets on 9/19) but the upcoming FOMC decision will be more important for JPY pairs. USDJPY trades around 78.30.

On the data front, Chinese trade surplus rose in August to USD 26.66 bln from July's USD 25.1 bln as annual exports rose 2.7% while imports declined by 2.6%. Eurozone sentix investor confidence improved in September to -23.5 from previous -30.3.

Germany sold 6 month bills totaling EUR 3.4 bln. The average yield rose to -0.0147% from -0.0499% and cover improved to 1.5 from 1.3.

Upcoming risk events include Greek PM Antonis Samaras' meeting with the Troika that returned to Athens on Friday which so far has been in "good climate". Tomorrow the PM meets the ECB president Draghi in Germany.

Markets will be searching for any clues regarding the German constitutional court ESM decision on Wednesday and the key FOMC decision on Thursday. The market expects the ESM and the fiscal compact to be upheld but there could be additional conditions on future bailouts that could limit the potential EURUSD gains.

There are no US reports due today.

Patrik Urban

Videokomentář: Obchodování na FOREXu 10.9.2012

http://www.fxstreet.cz/videokomentar-obchodovani-na-forexu-1092012.html

10.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.











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Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.c

US & Canada Jobs Previews

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3535
September 7, 2012 07:50 ET :

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UK manufacturing and industrial production rose sharply; UK producer inflation higher; German industrial production rose; Swiss unemployment rate steady. Market awaits US and Canadian labor market data. The 1.2745 that Ashraf referred to in yesterdays piece is near target. See final paragrpah for more.
.
Draghi induced rally continues as the common currency touches 11 week high at 1.2700. However, the greenback is holding up relatively well against the other majors, especially GBP that trades near session lows about 50 points below today's high.

UK manufacturing production bested expectations in July as it soared 3.2% erasing the 2.9% loss seen in June. Industrial production rose 2.9% from previous -2.4% which is the sharpest monthly increase since 1987. However, because of the Jubilee celebrations data has been skewed so more information is needed to form a better view.

UK PPI output prices ticked higher in August to 0.5% from 0.1% m/m and to 2.2% from 1.8%. The first increase in half a year came on the back of higher petrol and chemical prices. Input prices rose significantly over the past two months so output prices are likely to continue to rise. GBPUSD initially jumped to a recent high of 1.5984 but rising EURGBP pushed it back to 1.5930s.

In other news, German industrial production rose 1.3% in July; trade balance declined to EUR16.1 bln from previous 16.3 bln and Swiss unemployment rate was steady in August at 2.9%.

Spanish and Italian 10 year yields are declining along with the shorter term yields. Spanish 10 year fell below 6% for the first time since May and currently trades around 5.75% while the Italian equivalent fell to 5.1%.
Much awaited August NFP report is due at 8:30 am ET and it is anticipated lower at 125K from July's 163K. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 8.3%.

Canada also releases its labor market data at 8:30 am. The employment is expected to rise 9.9K after a sharp fall to -30.4K seen in July and the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 7.3%. Ivey PMI due at 10:00 am is projected to weaken in August to 61.2 from 62.8.

EQUITY TECHNICALS & ASHRAFS PRE-NFP ANALYSIS
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/ market-analysis/ market-news/ 58972012/ pre-nonfp-post-uk-ip-indices-technicals/ 

Patrik Urban

ECB sazby nesnižuje; čeká se na tiskovou konferenci

06.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Australská data z trhu práce byla neurčitá, protože zaměstnanost v průběhu srpna nečekaně propadla o 8,8 tisíc po minulém růstu o 11,7 tisíc a míra nezaměstnanosti se zlepšila na 5,1 % z 5,2 %. Měnový pár AUD/USD nejdříve reagoval výprodejem k 1,0166, rychle se ale odrazil a růst, který následoval z důvodu uzavírání krátkých pozic (short squeeze) vynesl pár až k dennímu maximu u 1,0240.

Agentura MNI publikovala článek, že Španělsko zažádá o oficiální pomoc na začátku října, ale pouze pokud podmínky s pomocí spojené nepůjdou dále, než španělská vláda má v úmyslu. Mezitím server Financial Times spekuluje, že Itálie žádost o pomoc předloží do konce roku.

Britská centrální banka (Bank of Engand) dnes podle očekávání ponechala svou základní úrokovou sazbu na rekordním minimu 0,50 %. Sazba se na této úrovni drží již déle než tři roky. Banka nezměnila ani svůj program nákupu dluhopisů. V červenci se banka rozhodla obnovit kvantitativní uvolňování měnové politiky (stále není dokončeno a nadále ovlivňuje finanční systém) a napumpovat do ekonomiky dalších 50 miliard liber. Peníze banka používá na nákup dluhopisů, aby tak pomohla domácímu hospodářství z recese. Od března 2009, kdy snížila základní sazbu na nynější úroveň, již banka na nákupy dluhopisů vyčlenila celkem 375 miliard liber. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje bez výrazných změn v okolí úrovně 1,5900

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/ecb-sazby-nesnizuje-ceka-se-na-tiskovou-konferenci.html

Patrik Urban

Onto ECB, ADP & Services ISM

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3531
September 6, 2012 07:15 ET :

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Australian unemployment rate fell but employment declined; Spain and Italy to request aid; BOE steady. Market focuses on the ECB rate decision and press conference, followed by the Aug ADP & Aug ISM non-manufacturing. For trading ideas ahead of todays ECB rate decision, ADP report, services ISM and tomorrows job number, see details below.

Australian labor market data were mixed as employment declined 8.8K in August from previous 11.7K growth but the unemployment level ticked lower to 5.1% from 5.2%. AUDUSD initially fell to 1.0166 but bounced sharply higher and the short covering rally that followed sent the pair to session highs around 1.0240.

MNI reports that Spain is prepared to request aid in early October as long as the attached conditions do not go beyond what the government is committed to. Meanwhile, FT reports that Italy could request ECB bond buying that would require hard reforms before the year end.

BOE left the official bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and did not announce any new easing as new QE approved during the July meeting is still going through the system.

The ECB will announce its minimum bid rate decision at 7:45 am EST. While most participants expect a 25 bps cut to 0.50% some media imply that a rate cut is not on the agenda today. The much awaited press conference follows 45 mins later.

The US session will start at 8:15 am ET with August ADP report that is expected to decline to 142K from previous 163K. Jobless claims that come 15 minutes later are seen lower at 369K from previous 374K will be completely overshadowed by the ECB press conference that begins at the same time. Because of yesterday's leaked details, market is firmly expecting open ended, unlimited and unsterilized bond buying.

ISM non-manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is seen marginally lower in August at 52.5 from previous 52.6. Mario Draghi's speech at 12:30 pm in Potsdam at the M100 media award is not likely to have a significant impact on the markets.

Direct access to last nights Premium Insights is found here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=679 NonSubscribers can join here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban

Kanadská centrální banka rozhoduje o sazbách

05.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Měnový pár AUD/USD pokračoval v průběhu asijské seance v downtrendu po zprávách, že australský HDP v Q2 zpomalil růst mezikvartálně na 0,6 % z 1,4 % a meziročně na 3,7 % z 4,4 %. Dalším faktorem, který zvětšil tlak na tento pár bylo čínské HSBC PMI služeb, které se propadlo na roční minimum 52,0 z 53,1. Pár se propadl až k 1,0166 a nyní se obchoduje kolem 1,0185.

Na radarech traderů je dnes článek otištěný v německých novinách Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, který cituje nejmenovaný zdroj z ECB jež tvrdí, že program nastavující strop pro výnosy dluhopisů periferních zemí je velmi nepravděpodobný.

Maloobchodní tržby z eurozóny poklesly v červenci o 0,2 % a vymazaly tak 0,2 % růst z června. Meziročne se tržby propadly o 1,7 % z minulých -0,9%. Odolnost německé ekonomiky zmizela a země je vtahována hlouběji do problémů celé eurozóny. Německé tržby totiž poklesly meziměsíčně o celých 0,9 %.  EUR/USD se propadl na 1,2501, ale odrazil se a nyní se obchoduje kolem 1,2540.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/kanadska-centralni-banka-rozhoduje-o-sazbach.html

Patrik Urban

German Story says no Yield Cap, Onto BoC

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3528
September 5, 2012 08:06 ET :

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Australian GDP slowed; yield cap unlikely; Eurozone retail sales weakened; Swiss CPI flat. The market awaits non farm productivity and unit labor cost. Key event is BOC policy decision. A new Pemium Insights edition is due later today

AUDUSD downtrend continued throughout the Asian session after Q2 GDP slowed quarterly to 0.6% from 1.4% and annually to 3.7% from previous 4.4%. Another factor that increased the pressure on the Aussie was Chinese HSBC PMI services that fell to 52.0 in August fro 53.1 which is one year low. The pair fell to 1.0166 in London and now trades around 1.0185.

Traders have been focusing on an article in German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that quoted unnamed ECB official that yield cap is very unlikely to be a part of the ECB new bond buying program. The story did add hat any bond purchases will continue to be sterilized.

Eurozone retail sales declined 0.2% in July erasing 0.2% gain seen in June while the annual print weakened to -1.7% from previous -0.9%. German economic resiliency appears gone as the country is being drawn deeper into the Eurozone troubles. German retail sales fell 0.9%. EURUSD declined to 1.2502 and bounced to 1.2535.

Swiss CPI was flat in August month over month from previous -0.5% and on annual basis rose to -0.5% from previous -0.7%.

The US session will start at 8:30 am ET with Q2 non farm productivity that is expected to be revised higher to 1.8% from 1.6% and unit labor costs that are seen lower at 1.5% from 1.7%.

CAD traders await the BOC at 9:00 am which is widely expected to keep the overnight rate steady at 1.00% where it has been since 09/2010. While the key rate is likely to remain at current level well into 2013 we could see a softening of the language in the accompanying statement as Canadian reports, especially from the labor market, have been on the weak side recently.

Patrik Urban