Trhy čekají na HDP, EUR/USD blízko 1,3000

29.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je mírně slabší proti všem hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují téměř 1 % a relativně nejsilnější je euro (EUR) zatímco australský dolar (AUD) je nejslabší.

Japonský jen (JPY) oslabil v průběhu asijské obchodní seance poté, co lídr LDP Shinzo Abe zopakoval, že by Japonská centrální banka (Bank of Japan) měla uvolňovat dokud maloobchodní inflace nedosáhne ne jednoho, ale dvou procent. Měnový pár USD/JPY vzrostl zpět na 82,20 a EUR/JPY na 106,70.

Evropská data dnes předčila očekávání. Ekonomická důvěra za listopad v eurozóně vzrostla na 85,7 z 84,3, CBI prodeje ve Velké Británii dosáhly na 33 z 30 a německá nezaměstnanost stoupla jen o 5 tisíc po minulém růstu o 19 tisíc. Míra nezaměstnanosti ale i tak zůstala na 6,9 %.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trhy-cekaji-na-hdp-eurusd-blizko-13000.html

Patrik Urban

Řecký optimizmus se vytratil; Euro opět padá

28.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Optimizmus z uzavření řeckého jednání se vytratil, ale starosti týkající se amerického fiskálního útesu zůstaly. Společná evropská měna (EUR) tedy oslabuje a americký dolar (USD) je silnější proti všem hlavním měnám kromě japonského jenu (JPY). Evropské akciové trhy ztrácí kolem 0,4 %.

Viceguvernér britské centrální banky (Bank od England) Charles Bean, který bude ve své funkci o jeden rok déle dnes řekl, že britská ekonomika poroste "přinejlepším pomalu" a možná se za Q4 dokonce i zmenší. Dále také dodal, že pokračující nejistota omezuje efektivitu kvantitativního uvolňování (QE) a že další QE stále zůstává jednou z možností. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje kolem hranice 1,6000 s tendencí oslabování.

zbytek  zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/recky-optimizmus-se-vytratil-euro-opet-pada.html

Patrik Urban

Choppy FX Awaits US New Home Sales & Beige Book

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3693
November 28, 2012 07:43 ET :

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Dovish comments from BOE Bean; Spanish retail sales fell; solid Italian auction; Market focus is on new home sales, SNB Jordan and FOMC Tarullo speeches and FEDs Beige book. Will last nights new set of Premium Insights on GBPUSD prove to be on the money as were the prior 2 weeks? And why did we change the strategy in EURUSD? The latest edition also has 3 charts on EUR & Equity volatility. See more below in the bottom paragraph.

Optimism from the Greek deal disappeared while fiscal cliff worries continue to linger. The buck is stronger across the board except JPY. European equities are losing around 0.4%.

The BOE deputy governor Charles Bean who will, as we learnt yesterday, serve for one extra year said today that the UK economy will grow "weakly at best" and that a Q4 GDP decline is possible. He also added that the ongoing uncertainty limits QE effectiveness and that the BOE has not closed the door on further asset purchases.

The European data calendar was limited to Spanish retail sales that fell 9.7% y/y. German CPI for November will be announced right before the US session and analysts expect the inflation to ease to 2.0% from 2.1%.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold EUR 7.5 bln worth of 6 month bills. The average yield declined to the lowest level since 4/2010 at 0.919% from 1.347% and bid to cover improved to 1.65 from 1.52.

There are a number of risk events due during the US session today. New home sales at 10:00 am ET are expected to decline marginally in October to 387K from previous 389K. Crude oil inventories at 10:30 are seen higher at 0.5M barrels from last week's 1.5M barrels decline.

SNB chairman Thomas Jordan delivers a speech on monetary policy in Bern at 12:15 pm and the FOMC member Daniel Tarullo will begin his speech on regulation of foreign banking in New Haven at the same time.
At 2:00 pm the Federal Reserve will publish the Beige book. Analysts will seek comments on the impact of hurricane Sandy on industries along the east coast.

2 new trades on EURUSD, GBPUSD, 1 on USDJPY, 2 on EURJPY, 1 on AUDUSD, 1 on Gold and one existing, 2 new on silver and 2 existing in US crude oil. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the relevant charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=696 NonSubscribers Can click here to join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

-Patrik Urban

Britské 3Q HDP mezikvartálně roste o 1 %

27.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Měnový pár EUR/USD nebyl schopen překonat maximum 1,3008, kterého dosáhl po ohlášení dohody o pomoci Řecku a obchoduje se níž, kolem 1,2945. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují kolem 0,3 %.

HDP ve Velké Británii zůstal za Q3 mezikvartálně beze změny na 1,0 %, ale meziročně došlo ke snížení na -0,1 % z původního odhadu 0,0 %. Spotřeba domácností ale vzrostla o 0,6 % po 0,2 % pádu v Q2 což je nejrychlejší růst od Q2 1010. Měnový pár GBP/USD se obchoduje kolem 1,6020 a pár EUR/GBP kolem 0,8080.

OECD snížila výhled pro americkou ekonomiku v roce 2013 na 2,0 % z květnového odhadu 2,6 %. Eurozóna by měla zažít kontrakci 0,1 % z původního odhadu růstu o 0,9 % celosvětový HDP by měl růst pouze o 3,4 % namísto 4,2 %. Největšími vlivy, které by mohly snížit růst ještě dále jsou i nadále krize v eurozóně, fiskální útes v USA a také riziko vyšší ceny ropy.

zbytek zde:
 http://www.fxstreet.cz/britske-3q-hdp-mezikvartalne-roste-o-1.html

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Retraces; Goods Orders & Consumer Confidence Next

UK GDP revised lower y/y; OECD lowers outlook; German import prices fell; Spanish auction above target range. Market turns to durable goods orders; S&P Case Shiller HPI and CB consumer confidence.

EURUSD was unable to break above reaction high of 1.3008 that formed after a deal on Greek aid was struck yesterday. European equity indices are gaining about 0.3%.

UK Q3 GDP remained unrevised on quarterly basis at 1.0% but was revised lower to a 0.1% contraction from a previous flat reading y/y. Household consumption rose 0.6% in Q3 from -0.2% in Q2 which is the fastest pace since Q2 2010. GBPUSD trades around 1.6025 and EURGBP around 0,8080.

OECD lowered its US economic outlook for 2013 to 2.0% from 2.6%, Eurozone to -0.1% from 0.9% and world GDP to 3.4% from 4.2%. Main downside risks continue to include Eurozone crisis, risks to oil prices and US fiscal cliff.

Other data showed that German October import prices declined 0.6% from previous -0.7% and that Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose in October to 1.31 from 1.04.

Spain sold 3 and 6 month bills totaling EUR 4.087 bln vs. target 3-4 bln. Both average yields declined.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with durable goods orders that are expected to fall 0.6% in October after surging aircraft orders pushed the September's result to 9.8%. Core orders are seen declining by 0.6% from 2.0% growth. The FED chairman Bernanke delivers brief remarks at the National College Fed Challenge Finals but these are unlikely to move the markets.

S&P Case Shiller HPI at 9:00 am is expected to rise 2.9% in September from 2.0% and CB consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am is anticipated to rise to 73.1 in November from prior 72.2.

Patrik Urban

EUR Awaits Greece Above Key MAs

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3688
November 26, 2012 07:59 ET :

IMT ARCHIVES

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BOJ minutes; EZ finance ministers meeting continues; Catalan separatists parties won; German GfK fell; Italian consumer confidence at all time lows. Markets discounting favourable decision on Greece tonight. EUR/USD regained the important 200-DMA and 55-DMAs in matter of 3 days. 6 trades from the Premium Insights hit all targets, 2 were stopped out. See more details below.

USD attempted to push higher at the beginning of the London session but it gave up all gains and currently trades slightly lower against all majors. European equities are losing around 0.5%.

The BOJ meeting minutes did not provide any surprise as they contained only the usual notes of continued powerful easing in light of a weak outlook. Despite the governor Shirakawa comments that the currency market can be influenced by easing until the inflation target is in sight, USDJPY declined from 82.50s to 81.92 and currently trades around 82.10.

Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels for the third time this month on Greek debt clearance. The goal is to agree on debt reduction and debt sustainability before the next tranche of the aid is delivered. Markets discounting favourable decision on Greece tonight.

Catalan separatist parties won regional elections but voters gave no clear message for their leaders as the Catalan president Artur Mas who called the election actually lost a number of seats in the regional parliament. As a consequence he will have to form an alliance with parties that have a different socioeconomic agenda.

The European data calendar was light, Eurozone GfK German consumer climate fell for December to 5.9 from previous 6.3 and Italian consumer confidence fell to all time low 84.8 in November from 86.2 in October. EURUSD trades not far from session highs around 1.2965.

There are no data reports due during the US session today. The only risk event is a speech given by the vice president of the ECB Vitor Constancio that is scheduled to begin at 9:00 am ET.

6 trades from the Premium Insights hit all targets, 2 were stopped out, 4 remain in progress and 3 were unfilled. 1 EURUSD short stopped out, while the long was unfilled. USDJPY in progress. Both GBPUSD hit all targets (two weeks in a row both cable longs hit their targets). AUDUSD long was unfilled (missed by 20 pips). 1 EURJPY long hit all targets, the other was unfilled. CADJPY long remains in progress, while both EURGBP finally hit all targets, which were in progress since Nov 14. One gold short stopped out, the other a new contingency long was filled and in progress. The long silver trade since Nov 7 finally hit its highest target of 33.90. The lone long in oil is in progress. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the relevant charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=695 NonSubscribers Can click here to join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/

Patrik Urban

FOREX: Týdenní videokomentář - FXstreet.cz

26.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku.

Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

EURUSD Regains 1.29; Canadian CPI Next

EU summit continues; German Ifo improves; UK mortgage approvals rose; Spain already prefunding 2013. Market turns to Canadian CPI.

The EU economic summit in Brussels continues today. Market participants still assume that the long term EU budget deal will be reached today but there was chatter that German chancellor Merkel suggested that she doubted an agreement would be reached today.

The common currency pushed higher after all the November Ifo results were above expectations and better than in October. The business climate rose to 101.4 from October's 100.0; the current assessment improved to 108.1 from 107.2 and the expectations sub index increased to 95.2 from 93.2. The final reading of German Q3 GDP was unrevised at 0.2% q/q and 0.4% y/y. EURUSD rose back above 1.29 and EURGBP moved nearly to 0.81.

In other news, UK mortgage approvals rose to 33K in October from previous 31.5K and S&P downgraded three Spanish banks and said that negative outlooks on banks reflects the likelihood of further sovereign downgrade.

According to MNI, EZ sovereign issuance so far this year totaled EUR 797.23 bln which is around 99.7% of the total needs. Belgium, Slovakia and Spain are now pre-funding for 2013.

The sole item on the data calendar for the US session is Canadian CPI that is due at 8:30 am ET and that is expected to slow to 1.0% in October from previous 1.2% on annual basis. Core inflation is seen at 1.2% from 1.3% y/y. Liquidity will be thin as US firms are operating on skeleton staff after yesterday's Thanksgiving holidays.

Patrik Urban

EU summit pokračuje; EURUSD nad 1,2900

23.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Evropský summit v Bruselu dnes pokračuje druhým dnem. Shoda týkající se dlouhodobého rozpočtu se sice všeobecně očekává, ale na trzích kolovala nepotvrzená slova kancléřky Merkelové, která údajně řekla, že pochybuje o tom, že k nějakému ujednání dojde již dnes.

Společná evropská měna (EUR) vůči americkému dolaru (USD) dnes posílila po výsledku listopadových Ifo indexů z Německa, které nejenom že předčily očekávání, ale také dosáhly na lepší hodnoty než v říjnu. Index podnikatelského prostředí se zvýšil na 101,4 z 100,0; index současné situace se zlepšil na 108,1 z 107,2 a index očekávání vzrostl na 95,2 z 93,2. Poslední výsledek německého HDP za Q3 zůstal bez revize na 0,2 % mezikvartálně a 0,4 % meziročně. Měnový pár EUR/USD se pohybuje kolem hranice 1,2900 a EUR/GBP je těsně pod úrovní 0,8100.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/eu-summit-pokracuje-eurusd-nad-12900.html

Patrik Urban