Trhy čekají na PPI a spotřebitelskou důvěru

12.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) se obchoduje slabší proti všem hlavním měnám s výjimkou australského dolaru (AUD). Evropské akciové trhy se pohybují v úzkém pásmu a nejsilnější měnou je novozélandský dolar (NZD) zatímco AUD je nejslabší.

Společná evropská měna (EUR) dnes proti USD posílila až k 1,2985, ale měnový pár AUD/USD se začal vyprodávat poté, co guvernér Australské centrální banky (RBA) řekl, že existuje manévrovací prostor pro změnu sazeb (čti "sazby můžeme snížit") kvůli menšímu růstu ekonomiky. Pár AUD/USD se  propadl z maxim kolem 1,0288 k 1,0245 a pár EUR/AUD vzrostl z 1,2578 na 1,2653.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trhy-cekaji-na-ppi-a-spotrebitelskou-duveru.html

Patrik Urban

Onto US PPI & Consumer Confidence

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3602
October 12, 2012 07:45 ET :

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RBA hints at another rate cut; German growth to increase in 2012 but decrease in 2013; Eurozone industrial production rose m/m but declined y/y; G7+IMF+WB meeting. PPI and consumer confidence is next. In the latest of the Premium Insights, 1 of 2 EURUSD longs was filled (1.2920 hit), 1 of 2 EURJPY filled (as low as 101.20) & 1 of 2 GBPUSD was filled (as low as 1.6019). See more below.

The greenback is trading weaker across the board except AUD. European equities are barely changed and the relative strength winner is NZD while AUD is the weakest.

The common currency pushed higher to 1.2985 but AUDUSD sold off its highs after the RBA governor Glenn Stevens said that the RBA has a room to move on interest rates, noting softening growth. AUDUSD trades around 1.0245 from 1.0288 high while EURAUD strengthened to 1.2653 from 1.2578 session low.

MNI reports that the German government will increase its growth forecast for 2012 from 0.7% to 1% but decrease it for 2013 from 1.6% to 1.0%. Last forecasts were published in May.

European data calendar was limited to Eurozone industrial production that rose 0.6% in August which is the same pace of growth as in July. However, on annual basis it worsened to -2.9% from -2.8%.

Along with the G7 meeting in Tokyo, the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank starts today and continues tomorrow. Headlines are likely to impact the markets on Monday open.

The US session opens at 8:30 am ET with September PPI that is expected to slow to 0.8% after surging 1.7% m/m (1.8% from 2.0% y/y) while the core figure is seen steady at 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y). University of Michigan consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am ET and it is anticipated to decline in October marginally to 78.1 from previous 78.3.

The direct link to the latest Premium Insights can be found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub0/ access/ ?a=686 Non subscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban

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Datum: 2012-10-16 17:30

Lektor: Patrik Urban, Ondřej Hartman, Bossa

Adresa: On-line

 

 

Euro ignoruje snížení ratingu Španělska

11.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je slabší proti všem hlavním měnám vyjma JPY a smazal veškeré zisky ze včerejšího dne. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují přibližně 0,6 % a relativně nejsilnější je NZD zatímco JPY je nejslabší.

Pozitivní sentiment na trhu pomohl evropské měně (EUR) k opětovnému dosažení hranice 1,2900. Pokud vezmeme v potaz snížení ratingu Španělska agenturou S&P z BBB+ na BBB- a snížení dlouhodobého výhledu na negativní, jedná se o poměrně překvapivý vývoj.

Měnový pár AUD/USD vzrostl z 1,0216 na 1,0265 poté, co zaměstnanost za září vykázala růst o 14,5 tisíce po minulém pádu o 9,1 tisíce. Vyšší zaměstnanost na plný úvazek a také lepší míra participace tak pomohly australskému dolaru k posílení a to i přes výrazný skok v míře nezaměstnanosti, která vyskočila na 5,4 % z 5,1 %. AUD/USD se v současné době obchoduje kolem 1,0285.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/euro-ignoruje-snizeni-ratingu-spanelska.html

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Above 1.29; Trade Deficit Next

Euro ignores Spanish downgrade; AUD labor market data mixed; French CPI declined. Focus turns to trade deficit from US and Canada; jobless claims and import prices.

The greenback is weaker across the board, except JPY and has lost all of yesterday's gains. European equities are gaining 0.6% and the relative strength winner is NZD while JPY lags.

Positive sentiment helped the common currency to push higher and back above the 1.29 figure which is somewhat surprising given yesterday's Spanish downgrade by the S&P to BBB- from BBB+ with negative long term outlook.

AUDUSD gained from 1.0216 to 1.0265 after September employment was above expectations at 14.5K after previous decline by 9.1K. Rising full time employment along with a higher participation rate meant that the Aussie strengthened despite the unemployment rate that rose sharply to 5.4% from previous 5.1%. AUDUSD trades around 1.0285.

On the data front, German September CPI was unrevised at 2.0% y/y, French CPI declined 0.3% from 0.7% m/m and slowed to 1.9% from 2.1% y/y and Greek unemployment rate rose in July to 25.1% from 24.8%.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with trade deficit that is expected to widen slightly to USD 44.1 bln in August from previous deficit USD 42.0 bln. Jobless claims are seen marginally higher this week at 368K from last week's 367K and September import prices are anticipated steady at 0.7%.

Canadian data will include August trade deficit that is seen narrower at CAD 1.8 bln from -2.3 bln and new house price index is expected to rise 0.2% from 0.1%. Both releases are due at 8:30 am ET.

Markets also await the FOMC member and the FED governor Jeremy Stein's speech on asset purchases which is scheduled to start at 10:00 am ET. 

Patrik Urban

EUR Unchanged Despite Improving Industrial Production

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3597
October 10, 2012 07:43 ET :

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Italian tax cut; French and Italian industrial production rose; Italian auction. Markets turn to wholesale inventories and FED's Beige book.

Currencies are little changed, trading within a narrow range in the ongoing session. European equities are losing about 0.4%.

In a somewhat surprising move, Italian PM Monti announced an income tax cut designed to aid low earners. Also, the VAT will increase only 1% instead of 2% as initially intended. Today's risk events include a meeting between the Spanish PM Rajoy and French president Hollande in Paris and also the EU parliament debate regarding the banking union proposal.

The common currency did not benefit from French and Italian industrial production figures that were above expectations on both monthly and yearly basis. French IP rose 1.5% in August from previous 0.6% and Italian IP increased 1.7% after a 0.1% decline seen in July. EURUSD trades around 1.2870.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold 3 and 12 month BOTs totaling EUR 11 bln. The average yield rose to 0.765% from 0.7% respectively to 1.941% from 1.692% but cover has improved.

The data calendar for the US session is light today. Wholesale inventories are due at 10:00 am ET and they are expected to rise 0.5% in August from previous 0.7%. The key event is the FED's Beige book that is due at 2:00 pm. There are also two speeches, Minneapolis FED president Kocherlakota speaks at 2:25 pm and Dallas FED president Fisher at 4:45 pm. Audience questions follow both speeches.

Patrik Urban

GBP/USD opět klesá pod tlakem špatných zpráv

09.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Sentiment na trhu se prudce zhoršil krátce po začátku londýnské obchodní seance. Americký dolar (USD) vzrostl proti všem hlavním měnám a společná evropská měna (EUR) se rychle propadla z 1,2980 na 1,2907. USD se sice vzdal části zisků, ale i tak je silnější proti všem hlavním měnám vyjma JPY. Evropské akciové trhy se obchodují jenom mírně slabší.

Včerejší setkání ministrů financí v Bruselu nepřineslo žádná zásadní rozhodnutí. Konference ale pokračuje i dnes, takže trhy můžou snadno reagovat na novinové titulky. Důležitá je také dnešní schůzka kancléřky Merkelové s řeckým premiérem Samarasem v Aténách.

Z dalších zpráv uvedu snížení výhledu globálního ekonomického růstu Mezinárodním měnovým fondem, který také prohlásil, že vidí alarmující riziko hlubšího propadu růstu. V proslovu před ekonomickou komisí evropského parlamentu šéf Evropské centrální banky Draghi prohlásil, že ECB nebude tisknout peníze, aby tak nahradila nutné kroky některých vlád. Částečným překvapením bylo, že ECB pomýšlí o možnosti publikovat zápis z jednání o sazbách, tak jako to dělá většina centrálních bank západního světa.

zbytek zde:

http://www.fxstreet.cz/gbpusd-opet-klesa-pod-tlakem-spatnych-zprav.html

Patrik Urban

GBPUSD Under Pressure; UK Data Disappoints

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3594
October 9, 2012 08:01 ET :

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Ecofin meeting continues; IMF lowers growth forecasts; Draghi's testimony; UK industrial production declines further. US session brings second tier releases.

Market sentiment deteriorated significantly after London traders got to their desks. USD gained across the board and the common currency fell from 1.2980s to 1.2907. The buck lost some of its gains but still trades stronger across the board except JPY.

Yesterday's Ecofin meeting in Brussels did not bring anything significant. The meeting continues today so trading could be impacted by headlines and rumors. Noteworthy is also chancellor Merkel's visit to Athens where she meets the PM Samaras. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts and sees alarmingly high risk of a deeper slump as the EZ crisis intensifies, Bloomberg reports.

In a testimony before the economic committee of the European parliament, the ECB president Draghi said that the ECB will not print money to replace lack of government action. He also said that the ECB is thinking about publishing minutes of meetings.

The GBP has weakened significantly over the past two days and given today's data, there is a scope for further losses. Industrial production declined additional 1.2% in August from -0.8% y/y while manufacturing production fell 1.2% from previous -0.7% y/y. Monthly figures also disappointed. GBPUSD fell to 1.6001 and now trades around 1.6020.

The data calendar for the US session is light today. Canadian housing starts are due at 8:15 am ET and they are expected to decline to 201K in September from previous 224.9K. At 10:00 am NIESR will release its UK GDP estimate for September and US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index for October is seen higher at 52.3 from previous 51.8.

Patrik Urban

JPYTakes over from USD as Equities Look Down

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3593
October 8, 2012 07:50 ET :

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JPY strengthens; Chinese HSBC services PMI higher; Eurogroup meeting; Swiss deflation eases marginally; Eurozone investor confidence improves and German industrial production rose. US and Canadian banks are closed today. Equities seen at risk of etering a losing week, with S&P500 and Dow-30 vulnerable to 1420 and 13300 respectively. Both EURUSD & cable stopped out, with CADJPY it all targets and metals in progress. See more detail below.

More bad news on the UK austerity front as the independent Office for Budget Responsibility concludes the government will likely miss its target of reducing public by 2016/17. As much as 15 bn per year in savings will have to be made.

USD mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against JPY, unchanged against commodity dollars and stronger against EUR, GBP and CHF. European equities are losing about 1.25%.

Despite the fact that Japanese banks were closed in observance of Health-Sports day, the JPY has been gaining across the board throughout the Asian and London sessions. USDJPY declined about 50 points to 78.12 while EURJPY fell 100+ points to 101.12.

The AUD stopped sliding and trades slightly higher after Chinese HSBC services PMI rose in September to 54.3 from previous 52. AUDUSD oscillates around 1.0175. A break below would cause a technical damage as the zone around 1.0150 is a key support on the weekly chart.

Reports that suggested that Spain would not ask for a bailout over the weekend proved to be accurate so the focus is on the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg. Markets will also watch for headlines regarding the decision on the next tranche of bailout funds for Greece.

In other news, Swiss annual CPI printed -0.4% in September from previous -0.5% while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in September at 2.9%. Eurozone sentix investor confidence improved marginally in October to -22.2 from previous -23.2 and German industrial production rose 0.5% in August after 1.3% growth seen in July.

There are no reports due during the NY session as the US observes Columbus Day Holiday while Canadian banks are closed in observance of Thanksgiving day. The sole risk event comes at 5:00 pm ET when New Zealand releases its Q3 business confidence survey.

Our Pre-NFP Premium Insights remain in progress, EURUSD missed the 1.3080 final target before being stopped out. Metals and oil longs remain in progress, while EURJPY were stopped out. CADJPY hit all targets. Direct access is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=685 Nonsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01

Patrik Urban