Wednesday, October 14, 2009

USD collapsing, major psychological levels within reach

USD continues to collapse against virtually every currency. CHF parity first mentioned on 10/8 now seems even more likely as we trade around 1.0125. USDCAD in a strong downtrend is now trading just above 1.02 (150 points from a level where I first mentioned going short on Monday) is probably on the way to parity as well. EURUSD in now only a whisker from a major 1.5 level and now it would be almost impolite not to reach that level. The aussie continues its ascend as expected reaching a high of 92. Traders who followed my advice from last week to continue buying AUDUSD should have handsome profits by now.

Story of the day is Dow reaching 10000 and more importantly closing above this level at 10015. I still think that retracement (and probably a large one) will happen. But for now it does not make sense to fight the bullish trend.

USD index looks very poor again (or still?) and is closing very weak. Currently trading at candle's low around 75.27. The only hope now lies in a trendline support that comes around 75.15. Maybe will touch it when EURUSD breaks 1.50?

Gold made only marginally higher high but held yesterdays low and is closing reasonably strong. Oil which I mentioned last that there was a possibility of it breaking out of the recent range did break up higher and is on the way to touch 76.

When it comes to trading, my strategy does not change for now. Continue to sell USD on strength. Retracement is coming but so far there is no indication as to when it will come. Before I see any turns (hammers or at least doji, breaks of trendline supports/resistances or close below previous days lows/highs it doesn't make sense to fight the trend. Remember "trend is your friend". Keep your stops tight and be agressive with taking profits. Good trades.





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