http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2850
October 31, 2011 07:35 ET :
BOJ governor's shocking words sends JPY higher; German retail sales rose but less than anticipated; Eurozone CPI higher and unemployment rate at 15 months high. Market turns to Canadian GDP and US Chicago PMI.
USD is the relative strength winner today as higher risk aversion combined with BOJ intervention sends the greenback higher across the board. European equity indices are in the red, losing about 1%.
After USDJPY hit another historical low at 75.35 earlier during the Asian session, Japanese officials decided to unilaterally intervene in the market and weaken the JPY. USDJPY jumped nearly 400 points from 75.55 to 79.52 within few hours. In subsequent press conference BOJ governor Shirakawa shocked the market when he said that JPY rise has merits for the Japanese economy. These surprising words erased nearly 200 points off the intervention effect as USDJPY plunged back to 77.80. If the Japanese ministry of finance hopes to have a lasting impact on the JPY rate, it will have to bring USDJPY back towards to highs swiftly otherwise we are likely to see pre-intervention levels within few sessions.
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German retail sales grew 0.4% in September from -2.7% in August which was still below analysts expectations of +1.1%. More importantly, annual figure dropped to 0.3% from 2.5%.
October Eurozone CPI inched up to 3.0% from 2.9% on annual basis and September unemployment rate rose to 10.2% from August 10.1% which is the highest rate in over a year. To make it worse, even the August figure was revised higher from an initial estimate of 10.0%.
The ECB is buying Italian bonds again in attempts to push the 10 year yield lower. It has been unsuccessful so far as the bond continues to yield over 6%, currently 6.08% reigniting fears that Italy could be the next victim of Eurozone's crisis. Even the expanded EFSF would not be able to provide significant financial aid, should Italy need it. Meanwhile in Italy, the consumer price level increased to 3.8% in October from previous 3.6%.
In the UK, Mortgage approvals declined to 51k in September from 52.3K in August and net consumer credit expanded GBP 0.6bln from GBP 0.5 bln
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian August GDP that is expected at 0.2% from 0.3% (2.2% from 2.3% y/y). Higher retail sales and relatively strong labor market could lead to a positive surprise and in that case the CAD could stay below parity for the next few weeks to come.
Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am ET and is seen slightly lower at 59 in October from 60.4 in September and October Dallas manufacturing activity is anticipated better at -5 from -14.4.
Patrik Urban
Monday, October 31, 2011
Friday, October 28, 2011
Euro Steadies, US Spending, Core PCE Price Index Next
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2844
October 28, 2011 07:36 ET :
French consumer spending declines; Swiss KOF drops; talks regarding Chinese investment into EFSF continue. Market turns to US core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), personal spending and income and final UoM consumer confidence. Key daily & weekly euro charts are included in the latest Premium Intermarket Insights explain why and where we're long EURUSD. None of the See below.
Markets are consolidating yesterday's massive moves with a slight USD positive tone. However, market optimism should persist so risk on trend should resume. Major European equity indices are in the negative territory but only by about 0.2%.
French consumer spending declined in September -0.5% from +0.2% which is -1.3% on annual basis. The decline is blamed on fall in sales of clothes and energy consumption. Consumer spending is the main contributor to GDP in the second largest Eurozone economy so markets will scrutinize deteriorating data in light of last week's warning by Moody's that France could lose its AAA rating in the next three months. French downgrade would, without a doubt, give a severe blow to Eurozone's effort to stabilize markets and end the debt crisis.
Swiss KOF Economic leading indicator continued to worsen in October as it printed 0.8 from previous 1.21. This is the worst result since August 2009 and sixth back to back decline which points to a weaker growth in the months ahead. Further deterioration could reignite speculation that the SNB will move the EURCHF floor from 1.20 higher, perhaps to 1.30.
All 7 trades remain in progress in the latest Intermarket Insights (EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, gold and silver). For direct access ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=534 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
News coming out of China proved that China is contemplating EFSF investment but it is not a done deal yet. Chinese Vice finance minister Zhu said that details are still needed before deciding but confirmed continued talks.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with core PCE price index that is seen slightly higher at 1.7% from 1.6% y/y. September personal income and spending are due at the same time. Income is expected to increase 0.3% after -0.1% contraction in August and Spending is seen higher at 0.6% from 0.2%.
9:55 am will bring revised University of Michigan consumer confidence that is anticipated slightly higher at 58 from 57.5.
Patrik Urban
October 28, 2011 07:36 ET :
French consumer spending declines; Swiss KOF drops; talks regarding Chinese investment into EFSF continue. Market turns to US core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), personal spending and income and final UoM consumer confidence. Key daily & weekly euro charts are included in the latest Premium Intermarket Insights explain why and where we're long EURUSD. None of the See below.
Markets are consolidating yesterday's massive moves with a slight USD positive tone. However, market optimism should persist so risk on trend should resume. Major European equity indices are in the negative territory but only by about 0.2%.
French consumer spending declined in September -0.5% from +0.2% which is -1.3% on annual basis. The decline is blamed on fall in sales of clothes and energy consumption. Consumer spending is the main contributor to GDP in the second largest Eurozone economy so markets will scrutinize deteriorating data in light of last week's warning by Moody's that France could lose its AAA rating in the next three months. French downgrade would, without a doubt, give a severe blow to Eurozone's effort to stabilize markets and end the debt crisis.
Swiss KOF Economic leading indicator continued to worsen in October as it printed 0.8 from previous 1.21. This is the worst result since August 2009 and sixth back to back decline which points to a weaker growth in the months ahead. Further deterioration could reignite speculation that the SNB will move the EURCHF floor from 1.20 higher, perhaps to 1.30.
All 7 trades remain in progress in the latest Intermarket Insights (EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, gold and silver). For direct access ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=534 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
News coming out of China proved that China is contemplating EFSF investment but it is not a done deal yet. Chinese Vice finance minister Zhu said that details are still needed before deciding but confirmed continued talks.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with core PCE price index that is seen slightly higher at 1.7% from 1.6% y/y. September personal income and spending are due at the same time. Income is expected to increase 0.3% after -0.1% contraction in August and Spending is seen higher at 0.6% from 0.2%.
9:55 am will bring revised University of Michigan consumer confidence that is anticipated slightly higher at 58 from 57.5.
Patrik Urban
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Turning to US Q3 GDP
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2840
October 27, 2011 08:00 ET :
Signs that China could participate in EFSF; German CPI could surprise on the upside; UK CBI sales better than anticipated. Market turns to Q3 GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales.
Riskier assets continue to push higher on the back of yesterday's EU summit that produced some concrete steps towards the resolution of the EU debt crisis and thus satisfied market's expectations. European equity indices are in positive territory and the greenback continues to decline across the board.
Also supporting the sentiment were comments by the Chinese foreign minister who said that China is willing to help protecting financial stability and global growth. Such comments increase the probability that French president Sarkozy who will talk with Chinese leader Hu Jintao today, will be successful in convincing China to participate in the EFSF.
German preliminary October CPI is seen unchanged from last month at 0.1% which translates to 2.5% on annual basis. However, early indications from states that have already published their results point to a possibility of a higher print as Saxony and Hesse regions reported CPI at three year highs. The cost of energy and food is blamed in these regions for the increase. Overall German inflation is due later today.
UK CBI reported sales in October printed -11% from -15% in September. The trend points to a further weakness but the GBP benefited slightly as the result was above expectations of -15%.
Latest PREMIUM TRADES include EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, ES & gold For DIRECT ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=533 NONsubcribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The eagerly awaited Q3 GDP data is due at 8:30 am ET. The American economy is expected to grow 2.4% from previous 1.3%. In case of a significant disappointment, the existing market optimism could be reversed and risk aversion could come back.
Jobless claims that are due at the same time are seen at 400K from previous 403K.
Pending home sales due at 10:00 am ET are anticipated higher at 0.2% in September from -1.2% in August.
Patrik Urban
October 27, 2011 08:00 ET :
Signs that China could participate in EFSF; German CPI could surprise on the upside; UK CBI sales better than anticipated. Market turns to Q3 GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales.
Riskier assets continue to push higher on the back of yesterday's EU summit that produced some concrete steps towards the resolution of the EU debt crisis and thus satisfied market's expectations. European equity indices are in positive territory and the greenback continues to decline across the board.
Also supporting the sentiment were comments by the Chinese foreign minister who said that China is willing to help protecting financial stability and global growth. Such comments increase the probability that French president Sarkozy who will talk with Chinese leader Hu Jintao today, will be successful in convincing China to participate in the EFSF.
German preliminary October CPI is seen unchanged from last month at 0.1% which translates to 2.5% on annual basis. However, early indications from states that have already published their results point to a possibility of a higher print as Saxony and Hesse regions reported CPI at three year highs. The cost of energy and food is blamed in these regions for the increase. Overall German inflation is due later today.
UK CBI reported sales in October printed -11% from -15% in September. The trend points to a further weakness but the GBP benefited slightly as the result was above expectations of -15%.
Latest PREMIUM TRADES include EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, ES & gold For DIRECT ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=533 NONsubcribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The eagerly awaited Q3 GDP data is due at 8:30 am ET. The American economy is expected to grow 2.4% from previous 1.3%. In case of a significant disappointment, the existing market optimism could be reversed and risk aversion could come back.
Jobless claims that are due at the same time are seen at 400K from previous 403K.
Pending home sales due at 10:00 am ET are anticipated higher at 0.2% in September from -1.2% in August.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Awaiting Bundestag, EU Summit, US Home Sales
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2835
October 26, 2011 07:36 ET :
Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET, USDJPY at new lows; Japan ready to buy EFSF bonds; UK CBI orders dropped. Market turns to durable goods orders, new home sales and Canadian monetary policy report. See our latest Premium trades below.
EURUSD continues to trade in the recent 3950-3880 range ahead of the EU economic summit. The extent of private sector involvement and leveraging the EFSF are two key areas that will impact the market sentiment the most.
German parliament votes today on leveraging the EFSF. While passing is widely expected, if it is rejected/decision delayed, it could send the common currency lower as the EU summit would not be able to conclude this important issue. The Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET. Given the complexity of the issues, the press conference can be expected to take place late NY afternoon.
SEE OUR LATEST PREMIUM TRADES, including our shorts in AUDUSD & AUDCAD, which are few pips away from hitting all targets. DIRECT ACCESS found http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=531 To become a subscriber: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
USDJPY reached a new historical low today at 75.70. Japanese finance minister Jun Azumi said that he "will not rule out any steps on fx" and stated that it would be difficult to apply measures similar to those used by the SNB. This is the first time that he confirmed that such measures are even under a consideration. As jawboning has proved to be ineffective in tempering the JPY rise, an actual intervention or other unconventional steps might be considered. Minister Azumi also said that Japan is ready to buy EFSF bonds if the Eurozone presents a credible plan to solve the debt crisis.
UK CBI industrial orders dropped to -18 in October from previous -9 which is the largest drop since October 2010 and below expectations of -7. Deteriorating conditions and ongoing financial crisis in Europe is blamed. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.5976 after reaching 1.6040 earlier during the session.
The NY session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with September durable goods orders that are seen lower at -0.7% from previous -0.1%. However, core orders are expected higher at 0.5% from -0.1% in August.
US New home sales are due at 10:00 am and are anticipated higher in September at 302K from 295K.
CAD traders should watch for BOC Monetary policy report due at 10:30 am and BOC press conference that starts at 11:15 am.
At 16:00 the RBNZ will announce their rate decision. Rates are widely seen unchanged at 2.5%.
Patrik Urban
October 26, 2011 07:36 ET :
Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET, USDJPY at new lows; Japan ready to buy EFSF bonds; UK CBI orders dropped. Market turns to durable goods orders, new home sales and Canadian monetary policy report. See our latest Premium trades below.
EURUSD continues to trade in the recent 3950-3880 range ahead of the EU economic summit. The extent of private sector involvement and leveraging the EFSF are two key areas that will impact the market sentiment the most.
German parliament votes today on leveraging the EFSF. While passing is widely expected, if it is rejected/decision delayed, it could send the common currency lower as the EU summit would not be able to conclude this important issue. The Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET. Given the complexity of the issues, the press conference can be expected to take place late NY afternoon.
SEE OUR LATEST PREMIUM TRADES, including our shorts in AUDUSD & AUDCAD, which are few pips away from hitting all targets. DIRECT ACCESS found http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=531 To become a subscriber: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
USDJPY reached a new historical low today at 75.70. Japanese finance minister Jun Azumi said that he "will not rule out any steps on fx" and stated that it would be difficult to apply measures similar to those used by the SNB. This is the first time that he confirmed that such measures are even under a consideration. As jawboning has proved to be ineffective in tempering the JPY rise, an actual intervention or other unconventional steps might be considered. Minister Azumi also said that Japan is ready to buy EFSF bonds if the Eurozone presents a credible plan to solve the debt crisis.
UK CBI industrial orders dropped to -18 in October from previous -9 which is the largest drop since October 2010 and below expectations of -7. Deteriorating conditions and ongoing financial crisis in Europe is blamed. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.5976 after reaching 1.6040 earlier during the session.
The NY session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with September durable goods orders that are seen lower at -0.7% from previous -0.1%. However, core orders are expected higher at 0.5% from -0.1% in August.
US New home sales are due at 10:00 am and are anticipated higher in September at 302K from 295K.
CAD traders should watch for BOC Monetary policy report due at 10:30 am and BOC press conference that starts at 11:15 am.
At 16:00 the RBNZ will announce their rate decision. Rates are widely seen unchanged at 2.5%.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
German Consumer Confidence Increased; BOC Is Next
German consumer confidence rose; UK current account deficit narrowed; Italian government may fall. Focus turns to Canadian retail sales, BOC rate statement and US consumer confidence, manufacturing data.
Despite the disappointing data, November GfK German consumer confidence increased to 5.3 from 5.2. German labor market that remains strong and rising income expectations contributed to the increase. However, the economic expectations index fell to -6.2 from 4.8.
In the UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -2 bln in Q2 from GBP -4.1 bln in Q1 which is the best print since Q1 2008. BOE Governor King said today that inflation is peaking and that QE was executed because there was a risk that the inflation would fall below BOE target level. GBP has been relatively strong over the past few sessions pushing GBPUSD to over 1.6 today.
Italian political situation became more complex as one of PM Berlusconi's ministers warned that the government could fall over economic reforms demanded by the EU. PM Berlusconi is supposed to present a growth and debt reduction plan on Wednesday but yesterday's Italian government meeting failed to produce any agreements. Falling government in the fourth largest European economy would surely reverse the current risk on environment.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian retail sales that are expected to rise to 0.4% in August from -0.6% in July. Core is seen at 0.4% from a previous unchanged reading. Usually, the market experiences a considerable volatility after retail sales data is released. Today, the impact may be weaker as traders will be waiting for the BOC rate announcement and statement at 9:00 am ET. BOC is seen keeping rates unchanged at 1% despite the 0.5% core CPI increase last Friday.
9:00 am will also bring S&P Case-Shiller index that is anticipated to slow the rate of decline in August to -3.6% from -4.1% on annual basis.
Consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am should tick up slightly to 46.1 from 45.4 in October and Richmond manufacturing index is expected to print +2 from -6.
Patrik Urban
Despite the disappointing data, November GfK German consumer confidence increased to 5.3 from 5.2. German labor market that remains strong and rising income expectations contributed to the increase. However, the economic expectations index fell to -6.2 from 4.8.
In the UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -2 bln in Q2 from GBP -4.1 bln in Q1 which is the best print since Q1 2008. BOE Governor King said today that inflation is peaking and that QE was executed because there was a risk that the inflation would fall below BOE target level. GBP has been relatively strong over the past few sessions pushing GBPUSD to over 1.6 today.
Italian political situation became more complex as one of PM Berlusconi's ministers warned that the government could fall over economic reforms demanded by the EU. PM Berlusconi is supposed to present a growth and debt reduction plan on Wednesday but yesterday's Italian government meeting failed to produce any agreements. Falling government in the fourth largest European economy would surely reverse the current risk on environment.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian retail sales that are expected to rise to 0.4% in August from -0.6% in July. Core is seen at 0.4% from a previous unchanged reading. Usually, the market experiences a considerable volatility after retail sales data is released. Today, the impact may be weaker as traders will be waiting for the BOC rate announcement and statement at 9:00 am ET. BOC is seen keeping rates unchanged at 1% despite the 0.5% core CPI increase last Friday.
9:00 am will also bring S&P Case-Shiller index that is anticipated to slow the rate of decline in August to -3.6% from -4.1% on annual basis.
Consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am should tick up slightly to 46.1 from 45.4 in October and Richmond manufacturing index is expected to print +2 from -6.
Patrik Urban
Monday, October 24, 2011
Euro Slips on German & Ezone Manuf Contraction
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2826
October 24, 2011 07:20 ET :
Focus on Wednesday's EU summit; German manufacturing sector contracts, but service sector grew; Eurozone PMI declined further and industrial orders rose. NY session can see higher volatility during two FOMC member William Dudley speeches. The German contraction that Ashraf is at its early stages see the chart on the left here: bit.ly/p9MIMn For the latest on Premium Trades, see below. Ashraf will be on AlArabiya at 12:30 GMT (16:30 Dubai time)
Another European meeting ended with no concrete conclusion yesterday. The next EU summit which is on Wednesday is in focus now and is likely to be a key event this week. Risk on sentiment may continue to support equities and punish the USD on hopes that EU leaders are closer to a debt crisis solution. However, as markets expect the Eurozone to announce concrete steps with significant provisions, risk aversion can return with a vengeance should the Wednesday's summit come to a close with no specific results.
Data from Germany was mixed today as German manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years. Manufacturing PMI printed 48.9 in October from previous 50.3. However, German services sector expanded as services PMI increased to 52.1 from 49.7.
In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI has contracted for three months in a row as it printed 47.3 from 48.5 and services PMI declined to 47.2 from 48.8 deepening fears of a recession. New orders sub component has also been declining for three months which points to an additional weakness in the months ahead. EURUSD fell on the news from 1.3900 to 1.3843. Session low is 1.3822.
PREMIUM TRADES Fridays Premium long in gold hit most targets, silver in progress. USDCAD Premium short hit all limits. The EURUSD short in the Premium dual trade hit all targets, while the long remains unfilled. Long EURJPY hit all targets while the short is 7 pips away from completing all targets. Our oil long partly hit the limits before being stopped out. Gold and silver are in progress, while ES Premium trade is stopped out. Click here for DIRECT ACCESS http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527 Click here for a 1-week trial http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01 MONDAYs PREMIUM TRADES will be released at approx. 16:00 GMT
Eurozone industrial orders grew solid 1.9% in August after declining -1.6% in July. However, on annual basis orders grew only 6.2% from previous 8.9%.
There is no data due during the US session today. Market volatility could increase at 8:45 am ET and also at 1:00 pm ET when NY Fed president and FOMC member William Dudley delivers speeches and answers audience questions in New York.
Patrik Urban
October 24, 2011 07:20 ET :
Focus on Wednesday's EU summit; German manufacturing sector contracts, but service sector grew; Eurozone PMI declined further and industrial orders rose. NY session can see higher volatility during two FOMC member William Dudley speeches. The German contraction that Ashraf is at its early stages see the chart on the left here: bit.ly/p9MIMn For the latest on Premium Trades, see below. Ashraf will be on AlArabiya at 12:30 GMT (16:30 Dubai time)
Another European meeting ended with no concrete conclusion yesterday. The next EU summit which is on Wednesday is in focus now and is likely to be a key event this week. Risk on sentiment may continue to support equities and punish the USD on hopes that EU leaders are closer to a debt crisis solution. However, as markets expect the Eurozone to announce concrete steps with significant provisions, risk aversion can return with a vengeance should the Wednesday's summit come to a close with no specific results.
Data from Germany was mixed today as German manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years. Manufacturing PMI printed 48.9 in October from previous 50.3. However, German services sector expanded as services PMI increased to 52.1 from 49.7.
In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI has contracted for three months in a row as it printed 47.3 from 48.5 and services PMI declined to 47.2 from 48.8 deepening fears of a recession. New orders sub component has also been declining for three months which points to an additional weakness in the months ahead. EURUSD fell on the news from 1.3900 to 1.3843. Session low is 1.3822.
PREMIUM TRADES Fridays Premium long in gold hit most targets, silver in progress. USDCAD Premium short hit all limits. The EURUSD short in the Premium dual trade hit all targets, while the long remains unfilled. Long EURJPY hit all targets while the short is 7 pips away from completing all targets. Our oil long partly hit the limits before being stopped out. Gold and silver are in progress, while ES Premium trade is stopped out. Click here for DIRECT ACCESS http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527 Click here for a 1-week trial http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01 MONDAYs PREMIUM TRADES will be released at approx. 16:00 GMT
Eurozone industrial orders grew solid 1.9% in August after declining -1.6% in July. However, on annual basis orders grew only 6.2% from previous 8.9%.
There is no data due during the US session today. Market volatility could increase at 8:45 am ET and also at 1:00 pm ET when NY Fed president and FOMC member William Dudley delivers speeches and answers audience questions in New York.
Patrik Urban
Friday, October 21, 2011
2nd EU Summit Considered, New Lows for USDJPY
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2820
October 21, 2011 09:17 ET :
Second summit on 10/26 announced; combining EFSF with ESM could provide EUR 940 bln in lending; German Ifo declines; UK public borrowing rises; Canadian CPI mixed. Market turns to three FOMC members speeches. USDJPY Hits new low at 75.82. NEW Premium Trades are up.
The USD is little changed since London traders got to their desks. The major currencies are likely to stay range bound as market players are unlikely to want to hold risk positions ahead of this Sunday EU summit. The complexity of the situation that Eurozone has to deal with is evident from the latest announcement that a second EU summit will take place on Wednesday 10/26.
Bloomberg reported that a plan to combine EFSF and the ESM to provide EUR 940 bln in funding is being considered and that France could lose its top rating given by S&P should the government borrowing rise due to ballooning deficit and bank recapitalization costs.
LATEST NEW PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS are here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527
While 940 bln Euros is a significant amount, market participants could be unimpressed as rumors of 2 trillion Euros considered caused the Euro to spike higher just a few days ago.
On the data front, German Ifo Business Climate fell to 106.4 in October from previous 107.4 and the Expectations subindex fell to 97 from 97.1. In the UK, Public sector borrowing increased in September to GBP 11.4 bln from GBP 10.9 bln.
Canadian CPI declined to 0.2% in September from 0.3% in August. However, core CPI ticked up to 0.5 from 0.4%. On annual basis CPI reached 3.2%.
There is no data due during the NY session. However, market volatility could increase during a three speeches that will be delivered today.
At 1:00 pm FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota delivers speech on monetary policy in Minneapolis. Q&A session is expected which often causes stronger market reactions than a prepared speech.
At 1:20 pm FOMC member and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks about the economy in Dallas.
At 3:00 pm FOMC member and Fed's Governor Janet Yellen delivers a speech in Denver about the outlook for the US economy and economic policy.
Patrik Urban
October 21, 2011 09:17 ET :
Second summit on 10/26 announced; combining EFSF with ESM could provide EUR 940 bln in lending; German Ifo declines; UK public borrowing rises; Canadian CPI mixed. Market turns to three FOMC members speeches. USDJPY Hits new low at 75.82. NEW Premium Trades are up.
The USD is little changed since London traders got to their desks. The major currencies are likely to stay range bound as market players are unlikely to want to hold risk positions ahead of this Sunday EU summit. The complexity of the situation that Eurozone has to deal with is evident from the latest announcement that a second EU summit will take place on Wednesday 10/26.
Bloomberg reported that a plan to combine EFSF and the ESM to provide EUR 940 bln in funding is being considered and that France could lose its top rating given by S&P should the government borrowing rise due to ballooning deficit and bank recapitalization costs.
LATEST NEW PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS are here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527
While 940 bln Euros is a significant amount, market participants could be unimpressed as rumors of 2 trillion Euros considered caused the Euro to spike higher just a few days ago.
On the data front, German Ifo Business Climate fell to 106.4 in October from previous 107.4 and the Expectations subindex fell to 97 from 97.1. In the UK, Public sector borrowing increased in September to GBP 11.4 bln from GBP 10.9 bln.
Canadian CPI declined to 0.2% in September from 0.3% in August. However, core CPI ticked up to 0.5 from 0.4%. On annual basis CPI reached 3.2%.
There is no data due during the NY session. However, market volatility could increase during a three speeches that will be delivered today.
At 1:00 pm FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota delivers speech on monetary policy in Minneapolis. Q&A session is expected which often causes stronger market reactions than a prepared speech.
At 1:20 pm FOMC member and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks about the economy in Dallas.
At 3:00 pm FOMC member and Fed's Governor Janet Yellen delivers a speech in Denver about the outlook for the US economy and economic policy.
Patrik Urban
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Qaddafi Reportedly Captured, Euro Boosted by EFSF Guidelines
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2815
October 20, 2011 07:25 ET :
Wire reports indicate Mouammar Qaddafi was captured. US authorities have yet to confirm the news. Euro hits 1.3830s on stronger EFSF guidelines; German PPI higher; UK retail sales rose; Swiss ZEW improved for the first time in six months. Jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing is next. All 3 of EURUSD Premium trades hit targets, making 6 out of 9. Today's Premium Trades are due at the US open.
Euro moved sharply higher today from around 1.3672 to 1.3842 on EFSF guidelines that will be presented to German lawmakers. DJ reports that these guidelines are based on the agreement reached on July 21st and allow for limited leverage through banks; limit EFSF bonds purchase to 50% of total issue and restricts market intervention to public sector debt.
German PPI rose 0.3% in September after contracting -0.3% in August. This translates to annual PPI 5.5%, unchanged from last reading. Prices have increased mainly due to rising energy and food costs.
In the UK, retail sales rose unexpectedly 0.6% in September from -0.4% in August, which is 0.6% annual growth. However, this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained due to increasing unemployment, sluggish wage growth and high inflation. GBPUSD trades around 1.58, about 90 points above the pre-announcement level.
Swiss ZEW economic expectation index was declining for the past six months. In October it slowed its rate of decline when it printed -54.4 from previous -75.7.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower at 401K from previous 404K and Canadian wholesale sales that are expected slightly lower in August at 0.4% from 0.8%.
10:00 am ET will bring September existing home sales anticipated to decline to 4.94M from 5.03M and Philly Fed manufacturing that is expected to lower its rate of decline to -9 in October from -17.5 in September. On Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index was below expectations.
Consumer confidence in Eurozone also due at 10:00 am is expected to worsen in October to -20 from previous -19.
Patrik Urban
October 20, 2011 07:25 ET :
Wire reports indicate Mouammar Qaddafi was captured. US authorities have yet to confirm the news. Euro hits 1.3830s on stronger EFSF guidelines; German PPI higher; UK retail sales rose; Swiss ZEW improved for the first time in six months. Jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing is next. All 3 of EURUSD Premium trades hit targets, making 6 out of 9. Today's Premium Trades are due at the US open.
Euro moved sharply higher today from around 1.3672 to 1.3842 on EFSF guidelines that will be presented to German lawmakers. DJ reports that these guidelines are based on the agreement reached on July 21st and allow for limited leverage through banks; limit EFSF bonds purchase to 50% of total issue and restricts market intervention to public sector debt.
German PPI rose 0.3% in September after contracting -0.3% in August. This translates to annual PPI 5.5%, unchanged from last reading. Prices have increased mainly due to rising energy and food costs.
In the UK, retail sales rose unexpectedly 0.6% in September from -0.4% in August, which is 0.6% annual growth. However, this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained due to increasing unemployment, sluggish wage growth and high inflation. GBPUSD trades around 1.58, about 90 points above the pre-announcement level.
Swiss ZEW economic expectation index was declining for the past six months. In October it slowed its rate of decline when it printed -54.4 from previous -75.7.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower at 401K from previous 404K and Canadian wholesale sales that are expected slightly lower in August at 0.4% from 0.8%.
10:00 am ET will bring September existing home sales anticipated to decline to 4.94M from 5.03M and Philly Fed manufacturing that is expected to lower its rate of decline to -9 in October from -17.5 in September. On Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index was below expectations.
Consumer confidence in Eurozone also due at 10:00 am is expected to worsen in October to -20 from previous -19.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Euro Above 1.38 On Reports That EFSF Deal Is Near
Reports that French/German deal on EFSF is near improves optimism, BOE MPC minutes show that GBP 50-100 bln was considered for asset purchases, Eurozone current account deficit narrows. Market turns to CPI, housing data and Canadian leading indicators index.
Overall sentiment improved and higher yielding currencies are stronger against the USD on the back of reports that an agreement between Germany and France is near. President Sarkozy told his cabinet that 10/23 summit will deliver a plan to recapitalize banks and will boost the EFSF.
However, the market may be getting too optimistic as Chancellor Merkel reiterated today that the summit will be an important but not the final step in the debt crisis resolution. She also said that the solution will require tough and long-term work.
Reports that boosted the common currency yesterday – that the EFSF will reach 2 trillion Euros – were denied but the market may be disappointed should the summit conclude with the EFSF reaching anything less then 2 trillion. It is also important to keep in mind the staggering number of reports coming from the Eurozone that were later denied or turned out to be inaccurate.
BOE MPC minutes revealed that the considered size of asset purchases was between GBP 50 and 100 bln and that no member voted for a rate change. Some members noted that due to substantial downside risk a larger than normal stimulus may be needed. GBPUSD first sold off on the news but has since recovered and trades firmly above pre-announcement levels.
In Europe, Current account deficit has narrowed to EUR -5 bln in August from previous EUR -6.8 bln.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am with September annual CPI that is seen at 3.8%, unchanged from August. Annual core print is expected to tick up to 2.1% from previous 2.0%.
Housing market data is expected to be mixed today. Building permits are anticipated lower at 610K in September from 625K and housing starts are seen higher at 590K from 570K residential buildings.
The statistics office in Canada releases its September Leading indicator index also at 8:30 am and it is expected to improve to 0.2% from previous 0%.
Federal Reserve's Beige book that describes economic conditions in each of the 12 FED's districts is due at 2:00 pm ET.
Patrik Urban
Overall sentiment improved and higher yielding currencies are stronger against the USD on the back of reports that an agreement between Germany and France is near. President Sarkozy told his cabinet that 10/23 summit will deliver a plan to recapitalize banks and will boost the EFSF.
However, the market may be getting too optimistic as Chancellor Merkel reiterated today that the summit will be an important but not the final step in the debt crisis resolution. She also said that the solution will require tough and long-term work.
Reports that boosted the common currency yesterday – that the EFSF will reach 2 trillion Euros – were denied but the market may be disappointed should the summit conclude with the EFSF reaching anything less then 2 trillion. It is also important to keep in mind the staggering number of reports coming from the Eurozone that were later denied or turned out to be inaccurate.
BOE MPC minutes revealed that the considered size of asset purchases was between GBP 50 and 100 bln and that no member voted for a rate change. Some members noted that due to substantial downside risk a larger than normal stimulus may be needed. GBPUSD first sold off on the news but has since recovered and trades firmly above pre-announcement levels.
In Europe, Current account deficit has narrowed to EUR -5 bln in August from previous EUR -6.8 bln.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am with September annual CPI that is seen at 3.8%, unchanged from August. Annual core print is expected to tick up to 2.1% from previous 2.0%.
Housing market data is expected to be mixed today. Building permits are anticipated lower at 610K in September from 625K and housing starts are seen higher at 590K from 570K residential buildings.
The statistics office in Canada releases its September Leading indicator index also at 8:30 am and it is expected to improve to 0.2% from previous 0%.
Federal Reserve's Beige book that describes economic conditions in each of the 12 FED's districts is due at 2:00 pm ET.
Patrik Urban
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