Dolar maže předchozí ztráty; EURUSD pod 1,2800

07.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) začal ztrácet v průběhu asijské obchodní seance poté, co odhady z volebních místností začaly poukazovat na Obamovo vítězství. Když znovu zvolený prezident Obama dosáhl potřebného hlasu volitelů, výprodej USD ještě více zesílil. Demokraté posílili svoji pozici v senátu a naopak republikáni budou i nadále kontrolovat sněmovnu reprezentantů. Složitá a pravděpodobně dlouhá jednání na téma takzvaného fiskálního útesu tedy můžou začít.

Po skončení amerických voleb se trhy opět mohou začít zaměřovat na fundamenty. Dnešní zprávy z eurozóny nebyly nejlepším začátkem – spotřebitelské tržby poklesly o 0,2 % po minulém růstu o 0,2 % a německá průmyslová produkce propadla za září o celých 1,8 %. Měnový pár  EUR/USD se obchoduje 100 pipů pod dnešním maximem kolem hranice 1,2770.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/dolar-maze-predchozi-ztraty-eurusd-pod-12800.html
Patrik Urban

Dollar Pares Post-Obama Victory Losses

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3652
November 7, 2012 07:31 ET :

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USD stabilises after intitial pullback following Obama victory, Fiscal cliff negotiations between democratic senate and republican house set to begin; Eurozone retail sales and German industrial production disappoint; German advisors see GDP at 0.8%. Up ahead is Draghi's speech and by the end of the session NZ labor market data. Direct access to last nights Premium Insights trades on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, CADJPY, AUDUSD, gold, silver and oil is found below, as well as the technical and fundamental arguments for why Ashraf is sticking with his 1.35 target for EURUSD.

The buck started to lose ground across the board, except JPY, during the Asian session as polls began to point to president's Obama victory. USD selling intensified further after president Obama reached the necessary electoral college count. Democrats increased their hold of the Senate while republicans will continue to control the House of representatives. Difficult and prolonged fiscal cliff negotiations are set to begin.

With the US election out of the way, markets can start to focus again on fundamentals. Eurozone retail sales disappointed as they declined 0.2% in September from previous 0.2% growth and German industrial production dropped 1.8% in September from previous -0.5%. EURUSD trades about 70 pips below session highs around 1.2800.

The German government's council of economic advisors expects GDP to rise 0.8% both in 2012 and 2013 while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 6.9% from 6.8%. The council assumes that the ECB will cut rates to 0.5% before the end of the year and they see EURUSD at 1.27 until the end of 2013.

ECB president Draghi is scheduled to speak on the economy shortly after 8:10 am ET, perhaps providing some clues for the ECB's Thursday decision.

There are no top tier fundamental releases due during the US session. However, markets could respond to crude oil inventories at 10:30 am and to 10 year bond auction at 1:00 pm. By the end of the session at 4:45 pm NZD is likely to experience heightened volatility as New Zealand's statistics office will publish the latest labor market data. Employment is seen rising 0.3% in Q3 from previous -0.1% while the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 6.7% from 6.8%.

Here are the Premium Insights trades on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, CADJPY, AUDUSD, gold, silver and oil. DIRECT ACCCESS http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=693 Nonsubscribers can click here to join http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

AUDUSD At 5 Week Highs After RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged

RBA keeps rates steady; European reports mainly disappoint; UK manufacturing production rose but industrial production dropped. Focus is on US elections.

AUDUSD rose to a five week high of 1.0444 after the RBA kept rates steady at 3.25% while most analysts expected a cut to 3.0%. The RBA noted slightly higher inflation but it expects the price level to remain within the 2-3% target rate in the next one or two years. The pair is consolidating around 1.0430.

EURUSD initially fell to 1.2763 but later recovered to 1.2813. Spanish and Italian services PMI surprised to the upside but remain deep in contraction territory. The slight improvement in those indices was negated by Eurozone services PMI that was revised lower in October to 46.0 from initial estimate 46.2. Eurozone PPI remained steady at 2.7% y/y and German factory orders disappointed as they dropped 3.3% from previous -0.8%. EURUSD trades right below the 1.28 figure.

UK manufacturing production rose 0.1% in September following a 1.2% decline seen in August but industrial production fell sharply 1.7% from -0.5%. MNI reports that the decline was attributed to a record breaking 20.9% fall in oil and gas extraction. GBPUSD trades not far off session lows around 1.5970.

The US data calendar is limited to Canadian Ivey PMI due at 10:00 am that is expected to slow to 58.3 in October from previous 60.4. The US congressional and presidential elections take place today and preliminary results should be available late night or early Wednesday morning. The polls are tight but president Obama has a slight advantage.

Patrik Urban

RBA sazby nesnížila; AUD/USD posiluje

06.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Měnový pár AUD/USD vzrostl na pětitýdenní maximum 1,0444 poté, co Australská centrální banka (Reserve Bank of Australia - RBA) ponechala sazbu na 3,25 %, zatímco většina analytiků očekávala snížení sazby na 3,00 %. RBA poukázala na mírně vyšší inflaci, která by se ale i tak měla udržet v cílovém pásmu 2-3 % v průběhu příštích dvou let. AUD/USD pokračuje v konsolidaci kolem 1,0430.

Společná evropská měna (EUR) proti americkému dolaru (USD) nejdříve oslabila na 1,2763, později ale posílila až nad hodnotu 1,2800. Španělský i italský index služeb PMI sice příjemně překvapil, ale i tak zůstal hluboko v pásmu kontrakce. Zlepšení těchto dvou indexů bylo ale negováno indexem PMI služeb z eurozóny, který byl zrevidován níž na 46,0 po počátečním odhadu 46,2. Velkoobchodní inflace zůstala na 2,7 % a německé podnikové objednávky se propadly o 3,3 % po minulém pádu o 0,8 %. EUR/USD se obchoduje těsně nad hodnotou 1,2800.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/rba-sazby-nesnizila-audusd-posiluje.html
Patrik Urban

UK Services PMI Weaker; Onto US Services ISM

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3647
November 5, 2012 08:30 ET :

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Spanish unemployment rises; UK services PMI weakened; week full of risk events; gold near lows. Focus turns to ISM non manufacturing. Both of the EURUSD longs were stopped out. The latest on Ashraf's take on EURUSD will be tackled in tonight's Premium Insights.

The greenback gave up a small portion of its Friday's gains during the Asian session. However, when European trading began the USD gained across the board except JPY. European equities are losing about 0.75% and the relative strength winner is JPY while GBP and NZD lag.

MNI reports that market sentiment turned sour on WSJ story that suggests that the ECB was reconsidering EUR 80 bln of held Spanish bills as loan collateral. EURUSD was already trading near session low at 1.2777 when Spanish labor market data was published. The result was far worse than anticipated as unemployment rose by 128.2K in October after rising by 79.6K in September. Nevertheless, the common currency ignored this data and has not weakened further. Later during the session, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence improved to -18.8 for November from previous -22.2.

UK service sector expanded at the slowest pace in 22 months as October PMI index fell to 50.6 from previous 52.2. Employment declined for the second month in a row but the rate of job cutting was relatively slow. New orders expanded albeit at a weaker rate. GBPUSD fell to 1.5961 while EURGBP rose back above the 0.80 figure.

There are numerous event risks this week Tuesday's RBA rate decision and US election, Mario Draghi's speech on Wednesday and the BOE and the ECB decisions on Thursday. G20 meeting in Mexico City concludes today.
Gold has been unable to regain the ground it lost on Friday and continues to trade around 1678. 100 and 200 DMA are just below, between 1663 and 1668.

The US data calendar is limited to ISM non manufacturing that is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to decline marginally to 54.6 in October from September's 55.1. The index has been increasing steadily for four months back to back.

For a look on which of last week's Premium Insights were stopped, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=692 Nonsubscribers can click here to join http://ashraflaidi.com/ product/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban

Awaiting US And CAD Labor Market Data

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3644
November 2, 2012 07:57 ET :

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German finance minister wants G20 to not focus only on EZ crisis; Spanish manufacturing PMI lower; UK construction sector expands. Focus on employment reports from US and Canada. A new edition of Premium Insights was released yesterday ahead of the NFP. 6 trades hit all targets last week, 3 were stopped out and 4 remain in progress. Please see below.

The greenback is stronger against most majors in the ongoing session. European equities are trading within a narrow range.

The common currency was trading heavy since London open. EURUSD fell to a session low of 1.2864 after German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that top economies must pursue structural reforms and sustainable fiscal policies. Reuters reports that Schaeuble does not want this weekend's G20 meeting to focus solely on EZ crisis but should also include other issues such as US and Japan's debt problems.

Spanish manufacturing PMI declined in October to 43.5 from previous 44.5 reaching the lowest level since July. However, the 10 year yield is little changed trading around 5.59%. On a positive note, the final results of French, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs were revised slightly higher from their initial estimates.

After two months of contraction the UK construction sector expanded as the PMI bested expectations and reached 50.9 from previous 49.5. However, new work dropped for the fifth month and employment declined at the fastest pace since August 2011. GBPUSD trades around 1.6095.

The US session brings the last pre-election labor market data. The NFP report that is due at 8:30 am ET is projected to rise slightly to 123K in October from previous 114K and the unemployment rate is seen marginally higher at 7.9% after declining sharply to 7.8% in September. The last report of this week is factory orders that are expected to rise 4.6% in September after falling 5.2% in August.

Canadian employment is anticipated to drop to 9.7K after soaring 52.1K a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.4%.

Latest Premium Insights: 6 trades hit all targets last week, 3 were stopped out and 4 remain in progress. http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=692 Nonsubscribers can click here to join http://ashraflaidi.com/ product/ sub01/

Parik Urban

Webinář s FXstreet.cz 3. – úvod do Forexu

Tento webinář je určen hlavně pro začátečníky a mírně pokročilé příznivce obchodování na finančních trzích. Pro všechny, kteří chtějí pochopit, na jakých principech funguje technická a fundamentální analýza, jak používat indikátory, jak počítat cenu z grafu, co je to spread, swap, jaké obchodní strategie použít, dále také význam psychologie a money-managementu pro úspěšné obchodování a mnohé další.

Webinářem Vás provede zkušený trader Patrik Urban, který mmj. píše také pro FXstreet.cz .

Titul: Webinář s FXstreet.cz 3. – úvod do Forexu

Datum: 2012-11-08 17:30

Lektor: FXstreet.cz, Bossa.cz

Adresa: On-line u Vás doma

 

Registrace: 

https://bossa.cz/cs/apply-for-seminar-sslform/-/seminar-form/register/105255

 

Patrik Urban 

Výrobní PMI z Velké Británie opět nižší

01.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Výrobní sektor ve Velké Británii za říjen vykázal další kontrakci, v pořadí již šestou v řadě. Index PMI totiž propadl na úroveň 47,5 z 48,1, což je nejnižší hodnota od července. Celkové nové objednávky se opět propadly a to nejen kvůli menší domácí poptávce, ale také kvůli nižším objednávkám pro export do Asie. Měnový pár GBP/USD po vyhlášení oslabil, ale brzy smazal veškeré ztráty a v současné době se pohybuje nedaleko denních maxim kolem 1,6170. Pár EUR/GBP se obchoduje níž, jenom pár pipů nad hranicí 0,8000.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/vyrobni-pmi-z-velke-britanie-opet-nizsi.html

Patrik Urban

Onto ADP, Consumer Confidence & ISM

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3640
November 1, 2012 07:32 ET :

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UK manufacturing PMI weaker; Swiss retail sales and PMI higher; Spain extends shorting ban. Focus turns to ADP, jobless claims, consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing. A brand new of Premium Insights is due at the start of the US session. Both EURJPY, 1 of 2 EURJPY and 1 USDJPY hit all targets. Find out which remain in progress and stopped out below.

USD mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against GBP and NZD, stronger against EUR and unchanged against the rest of the majors. European equities are gaining about 0.5%.

UK Manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth time in a row in October as PMI declined to 47.5 from previous 48.1 which is the lowest level since July. Total new orders fell at an accelerating pace compared to September as domestic demand weakened and export orders from Europe and Asia declined. GBPUSD fell after the release but recovered all losses and trades near session highs around 1.6170. EURGBP trades just a few points above the 0.80 level.

Swiss retail sales bested expectations in September as they grew 5.4% but that was still a decline from previous 6.0% y/y. SVME PMI improved in October to 46.1 from 43.6 but this is still the seventh sub 50 reading back to back.

In other news, Greek manufacturing PMI fell to 41 from previous 42.2, Chinese sovereign wealth fund will buy 10% stake in Heathrow Airport and Spain is to extend ban on short selling till January 31st.

The US session begins at 8:15 am ET with the ADP report that is expected to print 138K in October from September's 162K followed by jobless claims at 8:30 am that are seen higher at 371K from last week's 369K.

Consumer confidence is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated higher in October at 72.4 from 70.3 while ISM manufacturing that is due at the same time is expected to edge down to 51.2 from 51.5.

For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban