UK Services PMI Weaker; Onto US Services ISM

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3647
November 5, 2012 08:30 ET :

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Spanish unemployment rises; UK services PMI weakened; week full of risk events; gold near lows. Focus turns to ISM non manufacturing. Both of the EURUSD longs were stopped out. The latest on Ashraf's take on EURUSD will be tackled in tonight's Premium Insights.

The greenback gave up a small portion of its Friday's gains during the Asian session. However, when European trading began the USD gained across the board except JPY. European equities are losing about 0.75% and the relative strength winner is JPY while GBP and NZD lag.

MNI reports that market sentiment turned sour on WSJ story that suggests that the ECB was reconsidering EUR 80 bln of held Spanish bills as loan collateral. EURUSD was already trading near session low at 1.2777 when Spanish labor market data was published. The result was far worse than anticipated as unemployment rose by 128.2K in October after rising by 79.6K in September. Nevertheless, the common currency ignored this data and has not weakened further. Later during the session, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence improved to -18.8 for November from previous -22.2.

UK service sector expanded at the slowest pace in 22 months as October PMI index fell to 50.6 from previous 52.2. Employment declined for the second month in a row but the rate of job cutting was relatively slow. New orders expanded albeit at a weaker rate. GBPUSD fell to 1.5961 while EURGBP rose back above the 0.80 figure.

There are numerous event risks this week Tuesday's RBA rate decision and US election, Mario Draghi's speech on Wednesday and the BOE and the ECB decisions on Thursday. G20 meeting in Mexico City concludes today.
Gold has been unable to regain the ground it lost on Friday and continues to trade around 1678. 100 and 200 DMA are just below, between 1663 and 1668.

The US data calendar is limited to ISM non manufacturing that is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to decline marginally to 54.6 in October from September's 55.1. The index has been increasing steadily for four months back to back.

For a look on which of last week's Premium Insights were stopped, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=692 Nonsubscribers can click here to join http://ashraflaidi.com/ product/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban

Awaiting US And CAD Labor Market Data

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3644
November 2, 2012 07:57 ET :

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German finance minister wants G20 to not focus only on EZ crisis; Spanish manufacturing PMI lower; UK construction sector expands. Focus on employment reports from US and Canada. A new edition of Premium Insights was released yesterday ahead of the NFP. 6 trades hit all targets last week, 3 were stopped out and 4 remain in progress. Please see below.

The greenback is stronger against most majors in the ongoing session. European equities are trading within a narrow range.

The common currency was trading heavy since London open. EURUSD fell to a session low of 1.2864 after German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that top economies must pursue structural reforms and sustainable fiscal policies. Reuters reports that Schaeuble does not want this weekend's G20 meeting to focus solely on EZ crisis but should also include other issues such as US and Japan's debt problems.

Spanish manufacturing PMI declined in October to 43.5 from previous 44.5 reaching the lowest level since July. However, the 10 year yield is little changed trading around 5.59%. On a positive note, the final results of French, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs were revised slightly higher from their initial estimates.

After two months of contraction the UK construction sector expanded as the PMI bested expectations and reached 50.9 from previous 49.5. However, new work dropped for the fifth month and employment declined at the fastest pace since August 2011. GBPUSD trades around 1.6095.

The US session brings the last pre-election labor market data. The NFP report that is due at 8:30 am ET is projected to rise slightly to 123K in October from previous 114K and the unemployment rate is seen marginally higher at 7.9% after declining sharply to 7.8% in September. The last report of this week is factory orders that are expected to rise 4.6% in September after falling 5.2% in August.

Canadian employment is anticipated to drop to 9.7K after soaring 52.1K a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.4%.

Latest Premium Insights: 6 trades hit all targets last week, 3 were stopped out and 4 remain in progress. http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=692 Nonsubscribers can click here to join http://ashraflaidi.com/ product/ sub01/

Parik Urban

Webinář s FXstreet.cz 3. – úvod do Forexu

Tento webinář je určen hlavně pro začátečníky a mírně pokročilé příznivce obchodování na finančních trzích. Pro všechny, kteří chtějí pochopit, na jakých principech funguje technická a fundamentální analýza, jak používat indikátory, jak počítat cenu z grafu, co je to spread, swap, jaké obchodní strategie použít, dále také význam psychologie a money-managementu pro úspěšné obchodování a mnohé další.

Webinářem Vás provede zkušený trader Patrik Urban, který mmj. píše také pro FXstreet.cz .

Titul: Webinář s FXstreet.cz 3. – úvod do Forexu

Datum: 2012-11-08 17:30

Lektor: FXstreet.cz, Bossa.cz

Adresa: On-line u Vás doma

 

Registrace: 

https://bossa.cz/cs/apply-for-seminar-sslform/-/seminar-form/register/105255

 

Patrik Urban 

Výrobní PMI z Velké Británie opět nižší

01.11.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Výrobní sektor ve Velké Británii za říjen vykázal další kontrakci, v pořadí již šestou v řadě. Index PMI totiž propadl na úroveň 47,5 z 48,1, což je nejnižší hodnota od července. Celkové nové objednávky se opět propadly a to nejen kvůli menší domácí poptávce, ale také kvůli nižším objednávkám pro export do Asie. Měnový pár GBP/USD po vyhlášení oslabil, ale brzy smazal veškeré ztráty a v současné době se pohybuje nedaleko denních maxim kolem 1,6170. Pár EUR/GBP se obchoduje níž, jenom pár pipů nad hranicí 0,8000.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/vyrobni-pmi-z-velke-britanie-opet-nizsi.html

Patrik Urban

Onto ADP, Consumer Confidence & ISM

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3640
November 1, 2012 07:32 ET :

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UK manufacturing PMI weaker; Swiss retail sales and PMI higher; Spain extends shorting ban. Focus turns to ADP, jobless claims, consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing. A brand new of Premium Insights is due at the start of the US session. Both EURJPY, 1 of 2 EURJPY and 1 USDJPY hit all targets. Find out which remain in progress and stopped out below.

USD mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against GBP and NZD, stronger against EUR and unchanged against the rest of the majors. European equities are gaining about 0.5%.

UK Manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth time in a row in October as PMI declined to 47.5 from previous 48.1 which is the lowest level since July. Total new orders fell at an accelerating pace compared to September as domestic demand weakened and export orders from Europe and Asia declined. GBPUSD fell after the release but recovered all losses and trades near session highs around 1.6170. EURGBP trades just a few points above the 0.80 level.

Swiss retail sales bested expectations in September as they grew 5.4% but that was still a decline from previous 6.0% y/y. SVME PMI improved in October to 46.1 from 43.6 but this is still the seventh sub 50 reading back to back.

In other news, Greek manufacturing PMI fell to 41 from previous 42.2, Chinese sovereign wealth fund will buy 10% stake in Heathrow Airport and Spain is to extend ban on short selling till January 31st.

The US session begins at 8:15 am ET with the ADP report that is expected to print 138K in October from September's 162K followed by jobless claims at 8:30 am that are seen higher at 371K from last week's 369K.

Consumer confidence is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated higher in October at 72.4 from 70.3 while ISM manufacturing that is due at the same time is expected to edge down to 51.2 from 51.5.

For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban

Sentiment se zlepšil, EUR/USD nad 1,3000

31.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Sentiment na trzích se zlepšil hned na začátku londýnské seance poté, co německé maloobchodní tržby předčily očekávání a vzrostly za září o 1,5 %. Francouzská spotřeba rovněž vzrostla a to o 0,1 % po srpnovém 0,8 % pádu. Měnový pár EUR/USD překonal hranici 1,3000, u které stále obchoduje a pár EUR/JPY posílil a obchoduje se blízko denních maxim kolem 103,90.
 
Další reporty ale nebyly tak optimistické. Italská míra nezaměstnanosti vzrostla na 10,8 % z 10,6 % a míra nezaměstnanosti v eurozóně dosáhla na další novodobé maximum a to 11,6 % z 11,5 %.  V eurozóně je nyní skoro 18,5 milionu lidí bez práce. Maloobchodní inflace mírně poklesla na 2,5 % a 2,6 %.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/sentiment-se-zlepsil-eurusd-nad-13000.html

Patrik Urban

Golden Cross in EURUSD; CAD GDP & Chicago PMI Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3637
October 31, 2012 07:35 ET :

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EURUSD sees a daily Golden Cross as Ashraf warned last week in Tuesdays Premium Insights. German and French data above expectation; Eurozone and Italian unemployment rate higher; Eurozone CPI lower; German auction. Market awaits Canadian GDP and Chicago PMI. Ashrafs piece on the Canadian dollar on Oct 25. See more below. EURUSD, USDJPY and cable hit all targets. See more below.

USD weakens across the board except JPY in the ongoing session. European equities are gaining about 0.5%. The relative strength winner is CHF along with NZD while JPY is the weakest.

Market sentiment improved at the beginning of the London session after German retail sales surprised to the upside and grew 1.5% in September and French consumer spending rose 0.1% after a 0.8% decline seen in August. EURUSD broke above the 1.30 level but has not seen much follow through. EURJPY pushed higher and continues to trade near session highs around 103.80.

Not all data was positive though - Italian unemployment rate ticked higher in September to 10.8% from previous 10.6% and Eurozone unemployment rate rose to a fresh high of 11.6% from 11.5% leaving nearly 18.5 million people out of work. Eurozone consumer inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%.
Germany sold 30 year bond totaling EUR 1.704 bln vs. EUR 2 bln target. The average yield rose to 2.34% from 2.17% but cover rose considerably to 2.69 from 1.5.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian GDP that is expected to grow 0.2% in August m/m but to slow to 1.7% from 1.9% y/y. Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am and it is anticipated to rise to 51.4 in October after falling to 49.7.

Markets also await Eurozone finance ministers conference call that will focus on the release of the next tranche of the bailout for Greece. However, no definite decisions are expected today.

1 of 2 EURUSD Premium longs hit all targets, the other in progress. USDJPY sot and GBPUSD long hit all targets. 1 of 2 Gold stopped out. silver and EURGBP in progress, while AUDUSD hit all targets and CADJPY stopped out. For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Uvolňování v Japonsku; Burzy v USA opět uzavřeny

30.10.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je slabší proti všem hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují více než 1 %. Hurikán Sandy, který udeřil na východní pobřeží USA způsobil škody přesahující 20 miliard dolarů. Finanční čtvrť v New Yorku je zatopená z důvodu přívalových dešťů a zvýšené hladiny řeky Hudson, což bude mít za následek další uzavření hlavních amerických akciových burz. Podle agentury Bloomberg je to poprvé za více než sto let, kdy počasí způsobilo dvoudenní uzavření burz.

Japonský jen (JPY) výrazně posilnil poté, co Japonská centrální  banka ponechala sazbu v rozmezí 0-0,1 % a zvýšila program pro nákup aktiv pouze o 11 bilinů jenů, zatímco trh očekával agresivnější uvolňování v hodnotě 20 bilionů. Měnový pár USD/JPY spadl z hodnoty 80,12 až na 79,27 a pár EUR/JPY prudce oslabil z 103,39 na 102,17. Kvůli růstu na páru EUR/USD ale později posílil až k 102,90.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/uvolnovani-v-japonsku-burzy-v-usa-opet-uzavreny.html

Patrik Urban

Yen up After BOJ; US Equities Closed

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3634
October 30, 2012 08:01 ET :

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US equities to remain closed; BOJ expands asset purchases; German unemployment rose; Eurozone business climate declined; Spanish GDP improved q/q. S&P Case Shiller is next, other US events postponed. USDJPY shorts in latest Premium Insights nearing the final target. EURUSD, EURJPY, cable, gold, silver and EURGBP in progress. More below.

Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast causing a damage that is estimated to exceed USD 50 bln. New York's financial district has been flooded by record tides and rain closing the US markets for the second day in a row. Bloomberg reports that this is the first time in over a century when the weather stopped equity trading for two days.

JPY surged across the board after the BoJ left rates steady between 0% and 0.1% and increased the asset buying programs only by JPY 11T to JPY 91T while some market participants expected a more aggressive increase by JPY 20T. The BOJ said that it would keep easing until 1% CPI is in sight. USDJPY fell from session's high at 80.12 to as low as 79.27. EURJPY declined sharply from 103.39 to 102.17 but recovered to 102.90.

Despite the fact that European data mainly disappointed, EURUSD trades 70+ points above session low of 1.2886. German unemployment rose by 20K in October which was above analysts' expectations but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.9%. Eurozone business climate fell further in October to -1.62 from -1.34 and Spanish Q3 GDP results were mixed as q/q reading improved to -0.3% from -0.4% but on annual basis the economy shrank 1.6% from -1.3%.

UK CBI realized sales surged in October to 30 from previous 6, reaching the highest level since June. GBPUSD trades near session highs around 1.6075.

The US data calendar is limited to S&P Case Shiller index at 9:00 am ET that is seen rising 1.9% in August from previous 1.2%. The consumer confidence report was postponed and the FOMC member William Dudley's speech was cancelled.

CAD traders await RMPI at 8:30 am ET that is expected to slow to 1.2% in September from previous 3.4% and the BOC governor Mark Carney's testimony in Ottawa that begins at 3:30 pm.

USDJPY shorts in latest Premium Insights nearing the final target. EURUSD, EURJPY, cable, gold, silver and EURGBP in progress, while AUDUSD hit all targets and CADJPY stopped out. We added 4 charts on EURUSD and gold to dissect the technical complexities for gold (daily and weekly stochastics and MA confluence) as well as euros intermediate trendline and its shifting behavior relative disappointing IFO & PMIs. For direct access to these Premium trades, please click here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=691 Non subscribers, can click on here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban