BOJ Joins Easing Party

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3560
September 19, 2012 07:53 ET :

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The USD strengthened during the London session against all majors. European equities are only slightly in the red and the relative strength winner is USD while EUR lags. A new edition of the Premium Insights will be issued later today.

The JPY fell across the board during Asia after the BOJ surprised the market by increasing the total size of the asset buying program by 10 trillion yen to about 80 trillion from 70 trillion. The governor Shirakawa emphasized that the decision was based on disappointing data and not on the latest FOMC decision. The overnight call rate remained between 0% and 0.1%. USDJPY jumped from 78.60s to 79.22 and currently trades around the 79.00 handle.

The minutes from the September MPC meeting showed that all members unanimously voted to keep rates and QE unchanged. While most members saw the decision as straightforward, some felt that additional stimulus is likely. GBPUSD trades weaker around 1.6230 from today's high 1.6269.

Swiss ZEW economic expectations index declined further in September to -34.9 from previous -33.3. Only 9.3% of respondents see an improvement of the economic situation while 44.2% anticipate the economy to worsen in the next six months. Falling risk trades pushed EURCHF back below 1.21.

Up ahead are the latest data from the real estate market. At 8:30 am ET, the Census bureau will release building permits that are seen lower in August at 0.79M from 0.81M and also housing starts that are expected to rise to 0.77M from 0.75M. Existing homes sales are due at 10:00 am ET and they are seen higher at 4.57M from 4.47M.


-Patrik Urban

Něměcký ZEW index dnes euru nepomohl

18.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

AUD/USD již od pondělí klesá a obchoduje se kolem hranice 1,0420. Zápis z posledního zasedání Australské centrální banky tlak na AUD zvýšil, protože obsahoval zmínky o možnosti snížit základní sazbu, pokud se ekonomický výhled zhorší.

Německý ZEW index ekonomického sentimentu se v září zlepšil na -18,2 z minulých -25,5. Jedná se o první zlepšení po čtyřech měsících poklesů. Rozhodnutí německého ústavního soudu o fondu ESM poněkud překvapivě nemělo na index vliv. EUR/USD poklesl až k 1,3046.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/nemecky-zew-index-dnes-euru-nepomohl.html

Patrik Urban

EURUSD Retraces Despite Improving ZEW

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3558
September 18, 2012 08:08 ET :

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RBA minutes hint cut; UK CPI cools; German and Eurozone ZEW improves; Spanish auction. Current account deficit and TIC data are next.

The greenback trades higher against most majors but is little changed against GBP and JPY. European equities are losing slightly over 1%.

AUDUSD has been under pressure since yesterday. The minutes from the latest RBA meeting showed that there is a scope for a rate cut if growth outlook worsens. The RBA also noted that the AUD is somewhat overvalued. AUDUSD has declined to 1.0416.

UK consumer inflation was in line with expectations at 2.5% in August from previous 2.6% y/y. Core inflation slowed to 2.1% from 2.3%. EURGBP that declined to 0.8034 supports GBPUSD around 1.6240.

German ZEW economic sentiment improved to -18.2 in September from -25.5 in August. This is the first increase after four months of declines. Somewhat surprisingly, the ESM ruling had no impact on the index. The same index for the whole Eurozone improved to -3.8 from -21.2. EURUSD trades around 1.3046

Spain reached a full take up as it sold 12 and 18 month bills totaling EUR 4.576 bln vs. 4.5 bln target. The average yields declined and cover was mixed. Spain is still considering all the conditions tied to the financial aid but mid-October seems likely for the official request. 10 year yield is slightly lower around 5.94%.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with current account deficit that is expected to narrow in Q2 to USD 126.6 bln from previous deficit USD 137.3 bln followed by net long term TIC flows that are seen higher in July at USD 37.3 bln from June's USD 9.3 bln.

NY FED president and FOMC member William Dudley delivers two speeches on the economy today one at 11:30 am and the other at 4:30 pm. From a market reaction perspective, Richmond FED president and FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker's speech in New York at 7:45 pm on monetary policy is likely to have higher impact.

Patrik Urban

Investice, ekonomika, FX: Investiční web vás zve na 2. Investiční fórum

http://www.investicniweb.cz/video/2012/10/10/2-investicni-forum-jak-uspet-na-forexu-na-jake-meny-vsadit-ve-zbytku-roku/

Chcete se dozvědět, co si myslí a jaké "plány" má s českou ekonomikou prezidentský kandidát Vladimír Dlouhý, a navíc dostat řadu investiční tipů pro následující měsíce a rad, jak uspět na Forexu? Tuto možnost budete mít 20. září 2012 na Investičním fóru v aule VŠFS v Praze v rámci dvou moderovaných diskusních bloků a několika samostatných přednášek, na nichž vystoupí přední ekonomové a investiční odborníci.

Program (předběžný)

13:00 až 13:15 Slavnostní zahájení
13:15 až 14:15 Česká ekonomika 2013+

• VIP: Vladimír Dlouhý, kandidát na prezidenta ČR

14:15 až 15:15 Investování 2012/2013 - diskusní blok

• Aleš Michl, analytik, Raiffeisenbank
• Petr Budinský, prorektor VŠFS
• Miloslav Plojhar, investiční stratég, Česká spořitelna
• Aleš Prandstetter, hlavní stratég, ČSOB Asset Management

Coffee Break I

15:45 až 16:45 Jak uspět na měnovém trhu Forex? Diskusní blok

• Martin Urban, hlavní makléř, brokerjet ČS
• Patrik Urban, trader, FXstreet.cz
• Jaroslav Tupý, finanční analytik
• Michala Moravcová, finanční analytička, BOSSA

Coffee Break II

17:00 až 17:45 Co čeká středoevropské měny?

• VIP: Günter Deuber, hlavní analytik, Raiffeisenbank

Onto NY Empire Manufacturing

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3553
September 17, 2012 08:13 ET :

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USD attempts some consolidation, while the common currency along with GBP trades within a narrow range not far off Friday's close. European equity indices are losing about 0.5%. Details of Ashraf's Singapore appearances (this week) are below.

In the traditional summer press conference chancellor Merkel confirmed that the ECB bond buying is justified by its mandate and that there is a need for more political coordination in the Eurozone. Regarding Greece Merkel said that Germany is ready to help Greece and it wants Greece to succeed but it must hold onto its commitments.

Reuters reported that president Obama will launch a WTO trade enforcement action against China over auto and auto parts subsidies. The move is seen as political as president Obama is campaigning in Ohio which is a state that relies heavily on the auto industry.

Eurozone current account surplus declined in July to EUR 9.7 bln from previous EUR 14.3 bln and the trade balance surplus rose to EUR 15.6 bln from 13.6 bln. Annual exports grew solid 11% while imports grew only 2%. EURUSD pulled to 1.3092 and currently trades around 1.3110.

The data calendar for the NY session is limited to Empire state manufacturing that is expected to improve in September to -1.9 from previous -5.9 and Canadian foreign securities purchases that are anticipated to rise to CAD 11.3 bln in July after CAD -7.9 bln in June. Both reports are due at 8:30 am ET.

ASHRAF IN SINGAPORE: The first event will start on Tuesday evening. For ALL DETAILS on dates, times & venue, please click on the link http://www.cityindex.com.sg/ learn-to-trade/ seminars.aspx

Patrik Urban

USD pokračuje v pádu; trhy čekají na CPI

14.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Výprodej amerického dolaru (USD), který začal včera poté, co komise FOMC oznámila další, tentokrát neomezené kolo kvantitativního uvolňování (QE3), pokračuje i v průběhu dnešní londýnské seance. Měnový pár EUR/USD se obchoduje těsně pod 1,3117; GBP/USD dosáhl na 1,6244 a EUR/GBP vzrostl až k 0,8066. Evropské akcie posilují téměř o 2 %.

Výhrůžky japonských činitelů ohledně síly japonského jenu (JPY), ale především vyšší výnosy na amerických dluhopisech dnes poslaly pár USD/JPY zpátky nad hranici 78,00 po včerejším minimu 77,13. I tak se ale tento měnový pár stále obchoduje v zóně, kterou lze charakterizovat jako zónu s vysokým rizikem intervence. Americký 10letý výnos vzrostl skoro o 6 % a obchoduje se kolem 1,81 %.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/usd-pokracuje-v-padu-trhy-cekaji-na-cpi.html

Patrik Urban

EUR Does 1.3120, CPI Is Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3547
September 14, 2012 08:03 ET :

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Rally continues; Eurozone CPI steady; USDJPY trades higher as treasuries decline; ecofin meeting; precious metals keep gains. Markets await for CPI, retail sales; industrial production and university of Michigan consumer confidence. Wednesdays Premium Insights from Ashraf saw, 1 of 2 longs in EURUSD hit the 1.2980 target, while the other remained unfilled. Both USDJPY shorts nearing their targets. 1st of 2 longs in GBPUSD hit 1.6160 target, while the other is in progress nearing its own objective. See more details on CADJPY, gold and oil below in the final paragraph.

 The post FOMC rally continues and the buck is sold across the board except JPY. EURUSD trades just below 1.32, GBPUSD jumped to 1.6244 and EURGBP rose to 0.8066. European equities are gaining nearly 2%.
Eurozone CPI remained steady in August at 2.6% y/y but the core figure slowed to 1.5% from previous 1.7%. Employment in the Eurozone was unchanged in Q2 which is the first time since last year that the number of employees did not contract.

Jawboning from Japanese officials along with higher US treasury yields helped to push JPY lower across the board. USDJPY moved back above the 78.00 figure from yesterday's low 77.13 but that is still in the "high risk of intervention" territory. US 10 year yield gained nearly 6% and trades around 1,81%.

The meeting of Eurozone finance ministers begins today in Cyprus and continues tomorrow. Topics will include the possibility of giving more time to Greece to reach its budget goals and possible financial aid for Spain.
Precious metals moved slightly higher during the London session following sharp gains seen yesterday. Spot gold and silver continue to trade near session highs around 1775 and 34.75 respectively. WTI was able to regain the 100 handle.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with August CPI that is expected to rise 0.5% from a previous flat reading m/m and to 1.6% from 1.4% y/y. Core CPI is seen growing 0.2% from 0.1% m/m but easing to 2.0% from 2.1% y/y. Retail sales that are due at the same time are anticipated to slow to 0.7% in August from 0.8% in July.

Industrial production hits the screens at 9:15 am ET and it is projected to decline to 0.1% from 0.6% and finally the university of Michigan consumer confidence at 9:55 am is expected to decline marginally in September to 74 from 74.3.

CADJPY hit all targets, 1 gold all done, the other in progress. Neither US crude not AUDUSD long were filled. DIRECT ACCESS TO THE EXISTING CALLS found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/access/?a=681 Non Subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Cesta k ESM je otevřená; EURUSD posiluje

12.09.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Německý ústavní soud dnes zamítl stížnosti proti plánu ECB nakupovat dluhopisy a podpořil fond ESM a také fiskální pakt. Nejnovější fond pro finanční pomoc je tedy v souladu s ústavou a může začít činnost, hned jak německý prezident Joachim Gauck zákon podepíše. Jednou z podmínek ale je, že povoluje příspěvek Německa maximálně ve výši 190 miliard eur bez dalšího potvrzení dolní komory parlamentu. Šéf euroskupiny Jean Claude Juncker už oznámil, že se první setkání guvernérů fondu proběhne 8. října v Lucembursku.

Měnový pár EUR/USD nejdříve prudce oslabil z 1,2880 na 1,2816, aby potom stejně rychle ztráty smazal a pokračoval výš. V současné době se obchoduje kolem 1,2920. Další událostí, která by mohla před zítřejším rozhodnutím komise FOMC ovlivnit trhy bude výsledek parlamentních voleb v Nizozemí. Volební místnosti uzavírají v 19:00 GMT a výsledek bude znám krátce poté.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/cesta-k-esm-je-otevrena-eurusd-posiluje.html

Patrik Urban

$1.2930 EUR after German Court Decision

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3543
September 12, 2012 07:52 ET :

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ESM approved; Dutch election; UK jobless claims fall; ILO unemployment rate ticks higher; Eurozone industrial production rises m/m but falls y/y. Market turns to import prices and by the end of the session to RBNZ. Last nights Premium Insights from Ashraf incoude USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, Gold and oil. See below for access.

German court rejected complaints against the ECB bond buying plan and backed the ESM bailout fund and the fiscal treaty, MNI reports. The bailout mechanism is therefore constitutional and can start operating after the German president Joachim Gauck signs it into law. Conditions include limiting German exposure to EUR 190 bln without further approval by Bundestag. EU Jean-Claude Juncker has already said the ESM governors will meet 10/8 in Luxemburg. EURUSD initially dropped sharply from 1.2880s to 1.2815 only to explode higher. It currently trades around 1.2930. The upcoming risk event is Dutch parliamentary election. The polls close at 7:00 pm GMT with first unofficial estimates expected shortly after.

UK labor market surprised positively yet again as the jobless claims declined 15K in August from -13.6K in July which is the biggest fall since 6/2010. The data, however, could be skewed due to short term hiring for the Olympics. The claimant count rate remained steady at 4.8% but the ILO unemployment rate ticked higher to 8.1% from 8.0%. GBPUSD continues to push higher trading around 1.6115.

Eurozone industrial production grew 0.6% in July from previous -0.6% m/m but fell additional 2.3% from -2.1% y/y and periphery 10 year yields are only slightly lower, Spanish around 5.62% and Italian around 5.06%.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with import prices that are expected to rise 1.4% in August after declining 0.6% in July followed by wholesale inventories that are seen at 0.3% in July from -0.2% in June.

By the end of the session at 5:00 pm the RBNZ will announce its official cash rate decision. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect rates to remain unchanged at 2.50%.

Last nights Premium Insights from Ashraf include 2 on USDJPY, 2 EURUSD, AUDUSD, 2 on GBPUSD, Gold and oil. See below for access Direct Access to these trades is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=681 Non Subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban