http://www.fxstreet.cz/averze-k-riziku-opet-vzrostla-eurusd-pod-12900.html
05.01.2012 Autor: Patrik Urban Sekce: Krátké zprávy Tisknout článek
USD je opět silnější proti všem nejdůležitějším měnám. Relativně nejslabší je AUD a NZD a hlavní evropské akciové trhy jsou o 1% až 2,1% níž. Ropa WTI se obchoduje za 102,50 a spotové zlato na 1612.
EURUSD prudce oslabilo po vydání německých maloobchodních tržeb, které v listopadu klesly o -0,9%, což je výrazně pod očekávaným růstem 0,2%. Průmyslové objednávky eurozóny, které se v říjnu zvýšily o 1,8% (meziročně 1,6%) potom co v září propadly o 6,4% nebyly schopné zastavit pád společné měny, která klesla až k 1,2830. Velkoobchodní inflace v listopadu klesla meziročně na 5,3% z 5,5%, což naznačuje, že maloobchodní inflace by mohla v následujících měsících pokračovat ve snižování.
PMI služeb ve Velké Británii vzrostlo na pěti měsíční maximum na hodnotu 54 v prosinci z předchozích 52,1, výrazně nad očekávaných 51,6. Komponent obchodních předpokladů sice spadl na 63,5 z 67,4, ale aktivita a nové objednávky se zvýšily nejrychlejším tempem za posledních půl roku. Zlepšení výrobního PMI i PMI služeb naznačuje nižší pravděpodobnost zvýšení programu pro nákup aktiv (APF) na přístím zasedání MPC, které se uskuteční příští čtvrtek. EURGBP se po publikování propadlo až k 0,8253.
Francie dnes prodala dluhopisy s různou maturací v hodnotě 7,963 miliard eur (cílové pásmo bylo 7-8 miliard eur). Největší aukce byla pro 2021 OAT dluhopis v celkové hodnotě 4,02 miliard eur jehož průměrný výnos vzrostl na 3,29% z předchozích 3,18%. Bid-to-cover měřící poptávku spadl z 3,05 na 1,64.
New Yorkské obchodování začne ve 14:15 ADP reportem, který se očekává níž na hodnotě 176 tisíc z předchozích 206 tisíc. Nové žádosti o podporu, které budou publikovány o 15 minut později se očekávají na 375 tisíc z předchozích 381 tisíc.
Dnešní ADP report bude mít pravděpodobně větší vliv na trhy než obvykle, protože tradeři ho použijí k odhadu zítřejšího NFP reportu.
ISM služeb za prosinec, které bude publikováno v 16:00 se očekává výš na 53 z předchozích 52.
Dnešní kanadské zprávy budou obsahovat cenový index přírodních materiálů ve 14:30, který se očekává o 0,1% výš po předchozím -1,2% pádu, za kterým bude následovat Ivey PMI v 16:00. Ten se očekává níž na 57,5 z 59,9.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Averze k riziku se vrátila; EURUSD zpět pod 1.3000
http://www.fxstreet.cz/averze-k-riziku-se-vratila-eurusd-zpet-pod-13000.html
04.01.2012 Autor: Patrik Urban Sekce: Krátké zprávy Tisknout článek
Americká měna (USD) se obchoduje na vyšších úrovních v průběhu současné obchodní seance. Relativně nejslabší jsou CHF a NZD a hlavní evropské akciové trhy se pohybují mezi -0,5% a -1,6% . Ropa WTI částečně oslabila na 102,20 a spotové zlato se obchoduje za 1599.
Po třech měsících kdy se CPI v eurozóně drželo na 3%, klesla maloobchodní inflace na 2,8%. Další zprávy prozradily, že Německé PMI služeb v prosinci bylo zrevidováno níž na 52,4 z prvního předpokladu 52,7, evropské PMI služeb bylo zrevidováno výš na 48,8 z 48,3 a evropské kompozitní PMI se zvýšilo na 48,3 z původního odhadu 47,9.
Jednodenní vklady u ECB dosáhly včera nového maxima a vyskočily na hodnotu 453,18 miliard eur. Tato skutečnost potvrzuje, že si banky nechtějí navzájem půjčovat, což může být částečně způsobeno strachem před rizikem z periferních dluhopisů a raději vkládají přebytečnou likviditu do ECB. Použití depozitní facility, která platí 0,25% je zvýšené již od srpna 2011.
Německo dnes prodalo EUR 4,0257 miliardy 10 letých dluhopisů, což je skoro o miliardu pod cílovou hodnotou 5 miliard. Průměrný výnos se snížil na 1,93% z předchozích 1,98% a bid to cover (poměr, který popisuje zájem o nabízené dluhopisy) se částečně zlepšil na 1,3 z předchozích 1,1. EURUSD tuto zprávy nejdříve ignorovalo, ale postupně začalo oslabovat a po pár hodinách propadlo zpět pod 1,3000.
Výrobní PMI ve Velké Británii v prosinci vzrostl na 53,2 z 52,3, což bylo výrazně nad očekávaným 51,7. V listopadu také vzrostlo na nejvyšší úroveň od konce 2009 množství nových hypoték na 53 tisíc. Po vyhlášení zpráv EURGBP spadlo z 0,8345 na 0,8332.
Jedinou fundamentální zprávou, která bude publikována v průběhu amerického obchodování budou listopadové průmyslové objednávky, které se očekávají výš na 1,9% z předchozích -0,4%. Report bude publikován v 16:00 hodin.
Patrik Urban
04.01.2012 Autor: Patrik Urban Sekce: Krátké zprávy Tisknout článek
Americká měna (USD) se obchoduje na vyšších úrovních v průběhu současné obchodní seance. Relativně nejslabší jsou CHF a NZD a hlavní evropské akciové trhy se pohybují mezi -0,5% a -1,6% . Ropa WTI částečně oslabila na 102,20 a spotové zlato se obchoduje za 1599.
Po třech měsících kdy se CPI v eurozóně drželo na 3%, klesla maloobchodní inflace na 2,8%. Další zprávy prozradily, že Německé PMI služeb v prosinci bylo zrevidováno níž na 52,4 z prvního předpokladu 52,7, evropské PMI služeb bylo zrevidováno výš na 48,8 z 48,3 a evropské kompozitní PMI se zvýšilo na 48,3 z původního odhadu 47,9.
Jednodenní vklady u ECB dosáhly včera nového maxima a vyskočily na hodnotu 453,18 miliard eur. Tato skutečnost potvrzuje, že si banky nechtějí navzájem půjčovat, což může být částečně způsobeno strachem před rizikem z periferních dluhopisů a raději vkládají přebytečnou likviditu do ECB. Použití depozitní facility, která platí 0,25% je zvýšené již od srpna 2011.
Německo dnes prodalo EUR 4,0257 miliardy 10 letých dluhopisů, což je skoro o miliardu pod cílovou hodnotou 5 miliard. Průměrný výnos se snížil na 1,93% z předchozích 1,98% a bid to cover (poměr, který popisuje zájem o nabízené dluhopisy) se částečně zlepšil na 1,3 z předchozích 1,1. EURUSD tuto zprávy nejdříve ignorovalo, ale postupně začalo oslabovat a po pár hodinách propadlo zpět pod 1,3000.
Výrobní PMI ve Velké Británii v prosinci vzrostl na 53,2 z 52,3, což bylo výrazně nad očekávaným 51,7. V listopadu také vzrostlo na nejvyšší úroveň od konce 2009 množství nových hypoték na 53 tisíc. Po vyhlášení zpráv EURGBP spadlo z 0,8345 na 0,8332.
Jedinou fundamentální zprávou, která bude publikována v průběhu amerického obchodování budou listopadové průmyslové objednávky, které se očekávají výš na 1,9% z předchozích -0,4%. Report bude publikován v 16:00 hodin.
Patrik Urban
Forex: Shrnutí dnešního obchodování
http://www.fxstreet.cz/forex-shrnuti-dnesniho-obchodovani.html
03.01.2012 Autor: Patrik Urban Sekce: Krátké zprávy Tisknout článek
Americká měna (USD) je v průběhu současné seance slabší vůči všem hlavním měnám. Relativně nejsilnější jsou NZD a AUD. Nejdůležitější evropské akciové indexy jsou smíšené v rozmezí mezi -0,6% a 1,2%. Americká ropa (WTI) se obchoduje výše kolem 101,50 a spotové zlato se obchoduje o 70 dolarů výš s porovnáním se čtvrtečním minimem kolem hladiny 1595.
Švýcarský výrobní SVME PMI příjemně překvapil, když v prosinci vykázal růst 50,7. To bylo výrazně nad očekavaným 45,4 a také nad předchozí úrovní 44,8. Dnes to bylo poprvé, co po pěti měsících postupného zhoršování došlo k růstu. Pokud vezmeme v potaz zhoršující se Švýcarskou ekonomiku, je pravděpodobné, že prosincové zlepšení bylo jen vyjímečnou odchylkou, po které bude opět docházek ke kontrakci. EURCHF po zprávě oslabilo z 1,2196 na 1,2153.
Pozitivní zprávy, které podpořily euro přišly také z Německa, kde se míra nezaměstnanosti v prosinci snížila na 6,8% z předchozích 6,9% a kde počet nezaměstnaných klesl o 22 tisíc.
Výrobní sektor ve Velké Británii sice zaznamenal další kontrakci, ale zhoršení bylo menší než se očekávalo. Výrobní PMI v prosinci vzrostl na 49,6 z předchozích 47,7. GBPUSD na zprávu reagovalo posilněním až k hranici 1,5600, protože trh očekával zhoršení na 47,4.
Americká seance přinese prosincové výrobní ISM, u kterého se očekává další zvýšení na 53,2 z listopadového 52,7. Index cen se ve výrobním sektoru pravděpodobně zvýšil na 47,9 z předchozích 45.
Změna výdajů na stavění se předpokládá níž, na hodnotě 0,5% z předcházejících 0,8%. Všechny tři indikátory budou publikovány dnes v 16:00 hodin.
Zápis z prosincového setkání komise FOMC bude uveřejněn dnes večer ve 20:15 hodin.
Patrik Urban
03.01.2012 Autor: Patrik Urban Sekce: Krátké zprávy Tisknout článek
Americká měna (USD) je v průběhu současné seance slabší vůči všem hlavním měnám. Relativně nejsilnější jsou NZD a AUD. Nejdůležitější evropské akciové indexy jsou smíšené v rozmezí mezi -0,6% a 1,2%. Americká ropa (WTI) se obchoduje výše kolem 101,50 a spotové zlato se obchoduje o 70 dolarů výš s porovnáním se čtvrtečním minimem kolem hladiny 1595.
Švýcarský výrobní SVME PMI příjemně překvapil, když v prosinci vykázal růst 50,7. To bylo výrazně nad očekavaným 45,4 a také nad předchozí úrovní 44,8. Dnes to bylo poprvé, co po pěti měsících postupného zhoršování došlo k růstu. Pokud vezmeme v potaz zhoršující se Švýcarskou ekonomiku, je pravděpodobné, že prosincové zlepšení bylo jen vyjímečnou odchylkou, po které bude opět docházek ke kontrakci. EURCHF po zprávě oslabilo z 1,2196 na 1,2153.
Pozitivní zprávy, které podpořily euro přišly také z Německa, kde se míra nezaměstnanosti v prosinci snížila na 6,8% z předchozích 6,9% a kde počet nezaměstnaných klesl o 22 tisíc.
Výrobní sektor ve Velké Británii sice zaznamenal další kontrakci, ale zhoršení bylo menší než se očekávalo. Výrobní PMI v prosinci vzrostl na 49,6 z předchozích 47,7. GBPUSD na zprávu reagovalo posilněním až k hranici 1,5600, protože trh očekával zhoršení na 47,4.
Americká seance přinese prosincové výrobní ISM, u kterého se očekává další zvýšení na 53,2 z listopadového 52,7. Index cen se ve výrobním sektoru pravděpodobně zvýšil na 47,9 z předchozích 45.
Změna výdajů na stavění se předpokládá níž, na hodnotě 0,5% z předcházejících 0,8%. Všechny tři indikátory budou publikovány dnes v 16:00 hodin.
Zápis z prosincového setkání komise FOMC bude uveřejněn dnes večer ve 20:15 hodin.
Patrik Urban
USD Consolidates Losses; EFSF Role Mulled
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3105
February 8, 2012 07:45 ET Greek leaders meeting postponed; German auction; Swiss unemployment rose and German trade surplus declined. Market awaits Canadian housing starts, oil inventories and at the end of the session NZD labor market data. Latest Intermarket Insights will be out after the London close.
EURUSD fell shy of gaining above the $1.33 level as USD trades within a narrow range close to London opening levels. European equities are gaining about 0.5%.
The meeting of Greek leaders scheduled to start at 6 am EST where they should respond to bailout conditions is delayed. It seems that a provisional agreement with the ECB/IMF/EU has been reached but some specific issues remain to be discussed. Greek PM Papademos said he hopes to present the final agreement for approval at the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.
According to a WSJ report, the ECB is said to consider selling its Greek debt to the EFSF in exchange for EFSF bonds. The ECB bought the Greek bonds at a heavily discounted price but it appears as though most of the profits a reported 11B euros will be foregone. This could cause problems with no-bailout provisions in the ECBs treaty but thats unlikely since the ECB will not lose any money.
Germany sold EUR 3.293 bln of 2017 bond (target EUR 4 bln). The average yield rose marginally to 0.91% from 0.9% and cover declined to 1.8 from 2.8. According to MNI, the whole Eurozone has issued about 15% of its total 2012 funding targets.
On the European data front, Swiss unemployment rate ticked up in January to 3.4% from 3.3 n.s.a. (remained 3.1% s.a.) and German trade surplus declined to EUR 13.9 bln from EUR 14.9 bln.
ECB deposits declined slightly to EUR 495.35 bln.
The US session starts at 8:15 EST am when Canadian housing starts are due and are expected to decline slightly in January to 193K from previous 200K.
Crude oil inventories are due at 10:30 am EST and are expected lower at 2.9M from previous 4.2M. Such a decline could further fuel soaring WTI that trades nearly 4 USD higher from yesterday's low at 96.
At the end of the session at 4:45 pm EST, New Zealand will release labor market data that could boost the already strong NZD. The employment is expected to rise 0.4% in Q4 from 0.2% and the unemployment rate is seen marginally lower at 6.5% from 6.6%.
Click here for more detail http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=601 NONsubscribers can join here http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
February 8, 2012 07:45 ET Greek leaders meeting postponed; German auction; Swiss unemployment rose and German trade surplus declined. Market awaits Canadian housing starts, oil inventories and at the end of the session NZD labor market data. Latest Intermarket Insights will be out after the London close.
EURUSD fell shy of gaining above the $1.33 level as USD trades within a narrow range close to London opening levels. European equities are gaining about 0.5%.
The meeting of Greek leaders scheduled to start at 6 am EST where they should respond to bailout conditions is delayed. It seems that a provisional agreement with the ECB/IMF/EU has been reached but some specific issues remain to be discussed. Greek PM Papademos said he hopes to present the final agreement for approval at the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.
According to a WSJ report, the ECB is said to consider selling its Greek debt to the EFSF in exchange for EFSF bonds. The ECB bought the Greek bonds at a heavily discounted price but it appears as though most of the profits a reported 11B euros will be foregone. This could cause problems with no-bailout provisions in the ECBs treaty but thats unlikely since the ECB will not lose any money.
Germany sold EUR 3.293 bln of 2017 bond (target EUR 4 bln). The average yield rose marginally to 0.91% from 0.9% and cover declined to 1.8 from 2.8. According to MNI, the whole Eurozone has issued about 15% of its total 2012 funding targets.
On the European data front, Swiss unemployment rate ticked up in January to 3.4% from 3.3 n.s.a. (remained 3.1% s.a.) and German trade surplus declined to EUR 13.9 bln from EUR 14.9 bln.
ECB deposits declined slightly to EUR 495.35 bln.
The US session starts at 8:15 EST am when Canadian housing starts are due and are expected to decline slightly in January to 193K from previous 200K.
Crude oil inventories are due at 10:30 am EST and are expected lower at 2.9M from previous 4.2M. Such a decline could further fuel soaring WTI that trades nearly 4 USD higher from yesterday's low at 96.
At the end of the session at 4:45 pm EST, New Zealand will release labor market data that could boost the already strong NZD. The employment is expected to rise 0.4% in Q4 from 0.2% and the unemployment rate is seen marginally lower at 6.5% from 6.6%.
Click here for more detail http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=601 NONsubscribers can join here http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
SNB Confirms EURCHF Floor, Another Bernanke Testimony
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3103
February 7, 2012 08:13 ET : Juncker: Greece cannot be forced out of EMU; German industrial production dropped; French trade deficit widened; Greek auction solid; SNB's Jordan reconfirmed EURCHF floor. Market turns to Canadian building permits and Bernanke's testimony. Latest Premium Intermarket Insights are in progress. AUDUSD trades were stopped out after the RBAs unexpected decision to hold rates.
The greenback recovered previous losses and trades unchanged since London open. European equities are losing about 0.5% and CAD is the relative strength loser.
Sentiment improved after Eurogroup's head J. C. Juncker said that Greece cannot be forced out of the Eurozone and that even in case of an exit, other countries would have to invest unimaginable sums of money. This view corresponds to chancellor Merkel's comment that Greek default is unacceptable.
USD started to gain after German industrial production dropped -2.9% in December m/m from previous unchanged print (0.9% from 4.4% y/y) which was significantly below market expectations. The only other report today was French trade deficit that widened to EUR -5 bln in December from EUR -4.1 bln.
Greece was able to sell EUR 812.5 M in 6 month bills today (target EUR 625 M). The average yield was marginally lower at 4.86% from 4.9% and cover was 2.72 from 2.8. A solid result considering the ongoing, never ending negotiations and the current 24 hour strike over new austerity.
EURCHF moved higher ahead of SNB's T. J. Jordan speech at the Swiss-American chamber of commerce where he repeated that the SNB will enforce EURCHF floor with utmost determination and will not tolerate floor's breach. He also reiterated projections that the Swiss economy will slow considerably in 2012. Surprisingly, EURCHF started to lose again after his comments.
ECB deposits declined slightly on Monday to EUR 503.38 bln.
The NY session brings Canadian building permits due at 8:30 am ET that are expected higher at 0.2% in December from previous -3.6% followed at 10:00 am by US IBD TIPP economic optimism index that is seen at 48.1 from 47.5.
The key event will be Fed chairman Bernanke's testimony on economic outlook before the budget committee in Washington DC. The testimony starts at 10:00 am and is followed by Q&A session that often causes more volatility than the speech itself.
Our latest PREMIUM TRADES found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=601 NONsubscribers can join here http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Parik Urban
February 7, 2012 08:13 ET : Juncker: Greece cannot be forced out of EMU; German industrial production dropped; French trade deficit widened; Greek auction solid; SNB's Jordan reconfirmed EURCHF floor. Market turns to Canadian building permits and Bernanke's testimony. Latest Premium Intermarket Insights are in progress. AUDUSD trades were stopped out after the RBAs unexpected decision to hold rates.
The greenback recovered previous losses and trades unchanged since London open. European equities are losing about 0.5% and CAD is the relative strength loser.
Sentiment improved after Eurogroup's head J. C. Juncker said that Greece cannot be forced out of the Eurozone and that even in case of an exit, other countries would have to invest unimaginable sums of money. This view corresponds to chancellor Merkel's comment that Greek default is unacceptable.
USD started to gain after German industrial production dropped -2.9% in December m/m from previous unchanged print (0.9% from 4.4% y/y) which was significantly below market expectations. The only other report today was French trade deficit that widened to EUR -5 bln in December from EUR -4.1 bln.
Greece was able to sell EUR 812.5 M in 6 month bills today (target EUR 625 M). The average yield was marginally lower at 4.86% from 4.9% and cover was 2.72 from 2.8. A solid result considering the ongoing, never ending negotiations and the current 24 hour strike over new austerity.
EURCHF moved higher ahead of SNB's T. J. Jordan speech at the Swiss-American chamber of commerce where he repeated that the SNB will enforce EURCHF floor with utmost determination and will not tolerate floor's breach. He also reiterated projections that the Swiss economy will slow considerably in 2012. Surprisingly, EURCHF started to lose again after his comments.
ECB deposits declined slightly on Monday to EUR 503.38 bln.
The NY session brings Canadian building permits due at 8:30 am ET that are expected higher at 0.2% in December from previous -3.6% followed at 10:00 am by US IBD TIPP economic optimism index that is seen at 48.1 from 47.5.
The key event will be Fed chairman Bernanke's testimony on economic outlook before the budget committee in Washington DC. The testimony starts at 10:00 am and is followed by Q&A session that often causes more volatility than the speech itself.
Our latest PREMIUM TRADES found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=601 NONsubscribers can join here http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Parik Urban
Monday, February 6, 2012
Greek Disagreements Weighs On Euro, Canada PMI Next
February 6, 2012 09:26 ET: Greek disagreement on austerity; Portugal coming to focus again; UK Halifax HPI rose; Eurozone sentix improved; German factory orders strong; ECB deposits over half a trillion again. Canadian Ivey PMI is next; 2 speeches by Fed presidents. A new Monday Premium Intermarket Insight will be issued at the London Close.
The greenback is stronger against other majors but it is losing a part of its earlier gains. Major European equities are losing between -0.3% and 1%.
Sentiment worsened as disagreement on Greek austerity measures and the delay on Greek swap deal increased uncertainty. In addition, rumors that Portugal will have to restructure its debt are circulating again. Surprisingly, Portuguese 10 year yield is lower at 13.47% from 14.05% high, significantly lower compared to last week's high above 18%.
On the data front, UK Halifax HPI rose in January 0.6% from previous -1% contraction and Eurozone sentix investor confidence improved for February to -11.1 from previous -21.1. German factory orders in December surprised to the upside as they grew 1.7% from previous contraction -4.9% m/m. Annual orders were unchanged.
ECB deposits increased again on Friday to EUR 511.43 bln from Thursday's EUR 488.8 bln.
The only fundamental report that is due during the NY session today is Canadian Ivey PMI that is expected considerably lower in January at 58.6 from previous 63.5. The report is due at 10:00 am ET. USDCAD is trading around 0.9970 which is about 50 points above Friday's low.
Market volatility could also increase at 8:55 am and at 12:15 pm when St. Louis Fed president James Bullard delivers a speech on inflation targeting in Chicago and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks in Washington on economic and policy outlook. Fed President Fisher said last Thursday that QE3 is not needed so his speech has a potential to underpin the greenback.
Patrik Urban
The greenback is stronger against other majors but it is losing a part of its earlier gains. Major European equities are losing between -0.3% and 1%.
Sentiment worsened as disagreement on Greek austerity measures and the delay on Greek swap deal increased uncertainty. In addition, rumors that Portugal will have to restructure its debt are circulating again. Surprisingly, Portuguese 10 year yield is lower at 13.47% from 14.05% high, significantly lower compared to last week's high above 18%.
On the data front, UK Halifax HPI rose in January 0.6% from previous -1% contraction and Eurozone sentix investor confidence improved for February to -11.1 from previous -21.1. German factory orders in December surprised to the upside as they grew 1.7% from previous contraction -4.9% m/m. Annual orders were unchanged.
ECB deposits increased again on Friday to EUR 511.43 bln from Thursday's EUR 488.8 bln.
The only fundamental report that is due during the NY session today is Canadian Ivey PMI that is expected considerably lower in January at 58.6 from previous 63.5. The report is due at 10:00 am ET. USDCAD is trading around 0.9970 which is about 50 points above Friday's low.
Market volatility could also increase at 8:55 am and at 12:15 pm when St. Louis Fed president James Bullard delivers a speech on inflation targeting in Chicago and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks in Washington on economic and policy outlook. Fed President Fisher said last Thursday that QE3 is not needed so his speech has a potential to underpin the greenback.
Patrik Urban
Friday, February 3, 2012
CAD Lower On Weak Jobs, US Jobs, ISM Services Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3098
February 3, 2012 07:48 ET: UK PMI services strong; Eurozone retail sales declined; employment in Canada lower than expected and unemployment rate rose; estimates for 2/29 LTRO. Key event for NY is NFP followed by ISM non manufacturing. There are 5 already CAD shorts in the latest Premium Intermarket Insights.
The USD is trading mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against EUR and GBP, unchanged against CHF and AUD and stronger against JPY and commodity dollars. Major European equities are higher by about 0.3%.
UK PMI services improved significantly in January to 56 from 54. This is the best result since 3/2011 and the rise in employment was the strongest in nearly four years. Improving PMI manufacturing and solid PMI services could imply that the expectations of an announcement of more QE next Thursday might be premature and that the MPC may instead choose the wait and see approach. GBPUSD is trading around 1.5840.
Eurozone retail sales declined in December -0.4% from -0.4% m/m (-1.6% from -1.5% y/y). This is the first December decline since 2008 as the end of the year is usually a busy time for retailers. Given the uncertainty and weak fundamentals (unemployment 10.4%) consumption is likely to stay subdued in the months ahead. EURUSD trades around 1.3175, below the key short term resistance at 1.32.
The number of employed Canadians rose in January by 2.3K significantly less than expected 23.3K and lower compared to December's 17.5K. Troubling is that full time employment actually decreased by 3.6K. Moreover, the unemployment rate picked up to 7.6% from previous 7.5%. The unemployment has been gradually increasing each month since 9/2011 and reached the highest level since 4/2011. USDCAD jumped on the news and trades firmly above parity.
In other news, MNI started to publish banks' estimates for 02/29 ECB's 3 year LTRO. The upper limit of the range is mostly EUR 300 to 400 bln. ECB deposits started to post marginal increases again with EUR 488.7 bln deposited on Thursday up from EUR 486.5 bln on Wednesday.
Eagerly awaited labor market data is due at 8:30 am ET. The NFP is expected to decline in January to 150K from December's 200K and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 8.5%. As a reminder, Wednesday's ADP came out below expectations and considerably lower at 170K from previous 292K. Hourly earnings should stay steady at 0.2% m/m but lower at 1.9% from 2.1% y/y.
ISM non-manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated higher in January at 53.2 from 52.6. December factory orders are due at the same time and expected lower at 1.5% from 1.8%.
SEE OUR 5 CAD SHORTS in latest PREMIUM CHARTS after the latest disappointing Canada jobs report. DIRECT ACCESS: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/access/?a=594 NONSUBSCRIBERS: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
February 3, 2012 07:48 ET: UK PMI services strong; Eurozone retail sales declined; employment in Canada lower than expected and unemployment rate rose; estimates for 2/29 LTRO. Key event for NY is NFP followed by ISM non manufacturing. There are 5 already CAD shorts in the latest Premium Intermarket Insights.
The USD is trading mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against EUR and GBP, unchanged against CHF and AUD and stronger against JPY and commodity dollars. Major European equities are higher by about 0.3%.
UK PMI services improved significantly in January to 56 from 54. This is the best result since 3/2011 and the rise in employment was the strongest in nearly four years. Improving PMI manufacturing and solid PMI services could imply that the expectations of an announcement of more QE next Thursday might be premature and that the MPC may instead choose the wait and see approach. GBPUSD is trading around 1.5840.
Eurozone retail sales declined in December -0.4% from -0.4% m/m (-1.6% from -1.5% y/y). This is the first December decline since 2008 as the end of the year is usually a busy time for retailers. Given the uncertainty and weak fundamentals (unemployment 10.4%) consumption is likely to stay subdued in the months ahead. EURUSD trades around 1.3175, below the key short term resistance at 1.32.
The number of employed Canadians rose in January by 2.3K significantly less than expected 23.3K and lower compared to December's 17.5K. Troubling is that full time employment actually decreased by 3.6K. Moreover, the unemployment rate picked up to 7.6% from previous 7.5%. The unemployment has been gradually increasing each month since 9/2011 and reached the highest level since 4/2011. USDCAD jumped on the news and trades firmly above parity.
In other news, MNI started to publish banks' estimates for 02/29 ECB's 3 year LTRO. The upper limit of the range is mostly EUR 300 to 400 bln. ECB deposits started to post marginal increases again with EUR 488.7 bln deposited on Thursday up from EUR 486.5 bln on Wednesday.
Eagerly awaited labor market data is due at 8:30 am ET. The NFP is expected to decline in January to 150K from December's 200K and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 8.5%. As a reminder, Wednesday's ADP came out below expectations and considerably lower at 170K from previous 292K. Hourly earnings should stay steady at 0.2% m/m but lower at 1.9% from 2.1% y/y.
ISM non-manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated higher in January at 53.2 from 52.6. December factory orders are due at the same time and expected lower at 1.5% from 1.8%.
SEE OUR 5 CAD SHORTS in latest PREMIUM CHARTS after the latest disappointing Canada jobs report. DIRECT ACCESS: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/access/?a=594 NONSUBSCRIBERS: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Thursday, February 2, 2012
EURUSD Muted to China EFSF&ESM Chatter, Bernanke Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3093
February 2, 2012 07:56 ET: Greek deal saga continues; China considering EFSF and ESM involvement; Spanish and French auctions; Swiss trade surplus declined; UK PMI fell and EZ PPI dropped; BOJ "immediate steps unlikely". Market turns to jobless claims, MPC Posen and chairman Bernanke's testimony. The 1.3220-1.3070s consolidation in EURUSD has triggered Tuesday's EURUSD trades in 3 occasions.
The USD is marginally higher in the ongoing session. Major European equities are mixed in the -0.15% to +0.3% range.
The Greek deal saga continues as the Greek government spokesperson said that a bulk of the deal is already completed. Meanwhile the IIF issued a statement that "constructive discussions continue". Interestingly, rumors started to make rounds that public sector will need to be involved in Greek haircut as well as the private haircut will not be enough.
EURUSD was boosted earlier in the session when Chinese PM Wen said that his country is considering a greater involvement in EFSF and ESM funds supporting efforts to stabilize the Euro. EURUSD soared about 80 points nearly to 1.32 but quickly lost its gains and returned towards 1.31.
Bond markets saw two important auctions today - Spanish auction ended with a full take up and lower yields. According to MNI, Spain has completed 24.6% of 2012 gross funding needs. France sold EUR 7.96 bln worth of bonds today (EUR 6.5 8 bln target). The largest auction was EUR 5.698 bln worth of 10 year OAT with average yield 3.13% and cover 1.71.
On the data front, Swiss trade surplus declined in December to CHF 2.07 bln from previous CHF 2.95 bln, UK construction PMI fell in January to 51.4 from 53.2 and Eurozone PPI contracted -0.2% in December from +0.2% m/m and despite elevated energy prices declined to 4.3% from 5.4% y/y.
BOJ's Yamaguchi said today that BOJ is ready to act but needs thorough analysis of currency trends before taking policy action. Even more interesting was a comment that "immediate steps on JPY are unlikely". USDJPY trades right above the 76 level, about 50 points above historical lows.
New York trading will turn to jobless claims that are due at 8:30 am ET and are seen lower at 373K from previous 377K.
GBP volatility could increase at 9:00 am EST when BOE MPC member Adam Posen delivers a speech in London.
The key event is FED chairman Bernanke's testimony on the economic outlook before the budget committee. It starts at 10:00 am EST but the Q&A session which often impacts volatility emerges after the speech.
EURUSD continues to struggle near the $1.32 and retest the limits cited in Tuesdays Premium Intermarket Insights. The 2nd AUDUSD short was stopped out. Find out about the ES & oil trade in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=592 To become a subscriber, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/
Patrik Urban
February 2, 2012 07:56 ET: Greek deal saga continues; China considering EFSF and ESM involvement; Spanish and French auctions; Swiss trade surplus declined; UK PMI fell and EZ PPI dropped; BOJ "immediate steps unlikely". Market turns to jobless claims, MPC Posen and chairman Bernanke's testimony. The 1.3220-1.3070s consolidation in EURUSD has triggered Tuesday's EURUSD trades in 3 occasions.
The USD is marginally higher in the ongoing session. Major European equities are mixed in the -0.15% to +0.3% range.
The Greek deal saga continues as the Greek government spokesperson said that a bulk of the deal is already completed. Meanwhile the IIF issued a statement that "constructive discussions continue". Interestingly, rumors started to make rounds that public sector will need to be involved in Greek haircut as well as the private haircut will not be enough.
EURUSD was boosted earlier in the session when Chinese PM Wen said that his country is considering a greater involvement in EFSF and ESM funds supporting efforts to stabilize the Euro. EURUSD soared about 80 points nearly to 1.32 but quickly lost its gains and returned towards 1.31.
Bond markets saw two important auctions today - Spanish auction ended with a full take up and lower yields. According to MNI, Spain has completed 24.6% of 2012 gross funding needs. France sold EUR 7.96 bln worth of bonds today (EUR 6.5 8 bln target). The largest auction was EUR 5.698 bln worth of 10 year OAT with average yield 3.13% and cover 1.71.
On the data front, Swiss trade surplus declined in December to CHF 2.07 bln from previous CHF 2.95 bln, UK construction PMI fell in January to 51.4 from 53.2 and Eurozone PPI contracted -0.2% in December from +0.2% m/m and despite elevated energy prices declined to 4.3% from 5.4% y/y.
BOJ's Yamaguchi said today that BOJ is ready to act but needs thorough analysis of currency trends before taking policy action. Even more interesting was a comment that "immediate steps on JPY are unlikely". USDJPY trades right above the 76 level, about 50 points above historical lows.
New York trading will turn to jobless claims that are due at 8:30 am ET and are seen lower at 373K from previous 377K.
GBP volatility could increase at 9:00 am EST when BOE MPC member Adam Posen delivers a speech in London.
The key event is FED chairman Bernanke's testimony on the economic outlook before the budget committee. It starts at 10:00 am EST but the Q&A session which often impacts volatility emerges after the speech.
EURUSD continues to struggle near the $1.32 and retest the limits cited in Tuesdays Premium Intermarket Insights. The 2nd AUDUSD short was stopped out. Find out about the ES & oil trade in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=592 To become a subscriber, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Another Greek Deal Rumor Sends USD Lower
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3090
February 1, 2012 07:38 ET: German and Portuguese solid auctions; Swiss retail sales and PMI declined; intervention threat EURCHF and USDJPY; UK manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside; Eurozone CPI eased. Focus turns to ADP and ISM manufacturing. Tuesday's trades are partly in progress.
Rumors that the Greek swap deal could be announced today reversed USD strength that started yesterday and the buck has returned to its recent lows. Major European equities gained about 1.5% and the relative strength winners are NZD and AUD, followed by CHF.
Germany sold EUR 4.09 bln worth of 10 year bund today (target EUR 5 bln). The average yield declined to 1.82% from 1.93% and bid to cover also improved to 1.4 from 1.3. Portuguese 3 month and 6 month bill auction also went well as it reached a full take up at EUR 1.5 bln with lower average yields. However, bid to cover declined slightly.
Swiss retail sales grew only 0.6% December from previous 1.8% y/y and January SVME PMI fell to 47.3 from 49.1. CHF is nevertheless among the best performers and EURCHF continues to trade right above the 1.20 floor. The threat of an intervention is also high on the USDJPY pair that fell to levels not seen since the unilateral October intervention. USDJPY trades at the 76 figure and dealers report plentiful sellers on rallies.
In the UK, manufacturing PMI grew solid 52.1 in January from 49.7 in December. After three months of contractions, the manufacturing sector expanded again and printed the best result since June 2011. Also noteworthy is the fact that over the past three months each print was revised higher.
In other news, Eurozone CPI eased to 2.7% from 2.8% y/y and manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.8 from initial estimate 48.7. The ECB deposits continue to be elevated as they reached EUR 472.45 bln on Tuesday.
The New York session will start at 8:15 am ET with January ADP report that is expected to decline to 189K from December's strong 325K.
ISM manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and is seen higher at 54.6 from previous 53.9
Tuesday's trades are partly in progress. Key charts on EURUSD Volatility and EURUSD Daily. Trades in EURUSD, AUDUSD, CADJPY and US crude oil http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=592
Patrik Urban
February 1, 2012 07:38 ET: German and Portuguese solid auctions; Swiss retail sales and PMI declined; intervention threat EURCHF and USDJPY; UK manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside; Eurozone CPI eased. Focus turns to ADP and ISM manufacturing. Tuesday's trades are partly in progress.
Rumors that the Greek swap deal could be announced today reversed USD strength that started yesterday and the buck has returned to its recent lows. Major European equities gained about 1.5% and the relative strength winners are NZD and AUD, followed by CHF.
Germany sold EUR 4.09 bln worth of 10 year bund today (target EUR 5 bln). The average yield declined to 1.82% from 1.93% and bid to cover also improved to 1.4 from 1.3. Portuguese 3 month and 6 month bill auction also went well as it reached a full take up at EUR 1.5 bln with lower average yields. However, bid to cover declined slightly.
Swiss retail sales grew only 0.6% December from previous 1.8% y/y and January SVME PMI fell to 47.3 from 49.1. CHF is nevertheless among the best performers and EURCHF continues to trade right above the 1.20 floor. The threat of an intervention is also high on the USDJPY pair that fell to levels not seen since the unilateral October intervention. USDJPY trades at the 76 figure and dealers report plentiful sellers on rallies.
In the UK, manufacturing PMI grew solid 52.1 in January from 49.7 in December. After three months of contractions, the manufacturing sector expanded again and printed the best result since June 2011. Also noteworthy is the fact that over the past three months each print was revised higher.
In other news, Eurozone CPI eased to 2.7% from 2.8% y/y and manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.8 from initial estimate 48.7. The ECB deposits continue to be elevated as they reached EUR 472.45 bln on Tuesday.
The New York session will start at 8:15 am ET with January ADP report that is expected to decline to 189K from December's strong 325K.
ISM manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and is seen higher at 54.6 from previous 53.9
Tuesday's trades are partly in progress. Key charts on EURUSD Volatility and EURUSD Daily. Trades in EURUSD, AUDUSD, CADJPY and US crude oil http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=592
Patrik Urban
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