German data disappoints again. Eurozone’s Industrial Orders decline. Market turns to Durable Goods Orders.
Euro is higher after Finnish Prime Minister Katainen who threatened earlier to withdraw support for Greek bailout specified that Finland will continue to talk with Greece and other countries to find a solution to the collateral payments issue that was rejected by Germany’s chancellor Merkel. In this issue, Greece has agreed to provide extra collateral to Finland. Finnish prime minister said that a series of solutions are being discussed.
Data from Germany continue to disappoint as the IFO Business Climate index for August declined to 108.7 from 112.9. The Expectations component dropped to 100.1 from 105 nearly breaching the key 100 level that distinguishes between positive and negative outlooks. Eurozone’s debt problem and a significant slowdown of German and Eurozone’s economies are blamed for a poor number.
Industrial New Orders in Eurozone declined in June by -0.7% after a considerable rise of 3.6% in May highlighting growth concerns and worries about the industrial sector. Year over year print slowed to 11.1% from 13.8%. Germany, which is the largest economy in the Eurozone, has recently seen a string of weak data that points to a disappointing future Eurozone releases.
The New York session will bring July Durable Goods orders at 8:30 am ET. Orders are expected to increase by 2.1% after they dropped by -1.9% in June. Core measure is projected to show a decline of -0.3% from previous 0.4%. This indicator shows high degree of volatility so large swings are common.
CAD traders should pay attention to Crude oil inventories due at 10:30 am ET that are expected to show 0.7M barrels from previous 4.2M barrels. Low print would underpin crude oil which could subsequently support the Canadian dollar.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Euro Stronger Despite Significant Drop in German ZEW Index
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2646
August 23, 2011 08:04 ET :
Euro is rallying despite German ZEW index that dropped to levels not seen since the end of 2008. Eurozone PMIs disappointed as well. Market turns to Canadian Retail sales and US housing and manufacturing data.
USD is weaker across the board in a session filled with disappointing data releases. The situation in Germany continues to deteriorate as August ZEW Economic sentiment dropped to -37.6 from previous -15.1 which is the worst print since December 2008. Slowing GDP growth likely contributed to such a poor result. Other news from Germany showed that Manufacturing PMI stayed unchanged at 52.0 and Services PMI dropped to 50.4 from 52.9
Data for the whole Eurozone also disappointed as Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 confirming a manufacturing sector contraction. Services PMI came out lower at 51.5 from 51.6 and ZEW Economic sentiment dropped to -40 from -7 also showing low numbers not seen since the end of 2008.
The rally in Euro is attributed to PBOC advisor Xia Bin who said that China is worried about the safety of its currency reserves which suggests continued interest in diversifying out of the USD.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Retail Sales for June that are expected to grow by 0.6% from previous 0.1%. Core measure is projected to slow to 0.3% from previous 0.5%. The recovery in oil underpins the CAD so positive surprise in sales should help it catch up with other majors.
July New Home Sales due at 10:00 am ET should increase slightly to 313K from 312K which is well within the range seen over the past four months.
Richmond Manufacturing Index that is also due at 10:00 am ET is expected to show yet another decline and drop to -7 from previous -1. The recovery seen at the beginning of the year has completely reversed and the projected result would be the lowest since April 2009.
Patrik Urban
August 23, 2011 08:04 ET :
Euro is rallying despite German ZEW index that dropped to levels not seen since the end of 2008. Eurozone PMIs disappointed as well. Market turns to Canadian Retail sales and US housing and manufacturing data.
USD is weaker across the board in a session filled with disappointing data releases. The situation in Germany continues to deteriorate as August ZEW Economic sentiment dropped to -37.6 from previous -15.1 which is the worst print since December 2008. Slowing GDP growth likely contributed to such a poor result. Other news from Germany showed that Manufacturing PMI stayed unchanged at 52.0 and Services PMI dropped to 50.4 from 52.9
Data for the whole Eurozone also disappointed as Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 confirming a manufacturing sector contraction. Services PMI came out lower at 51.5 from 51.6 and ZEW Economic sentiment dropped to -40 from -7 also showing low numbers not seen since the end of 2008.
The rally in Euro is attributed to PBOC advisor Xia Bin who said that China is worried about the safety of its currency reserves which suggests continued interest in diversifying out of the USD.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Retail Sales for June that are expected to grow by 0.6% from previous 0.1%. Core measure is projected to slow to 0.3% from previous 0.5%. The recovery in oil underpins the CAD so positive surprise in sales should help it catch up with other majors.
July New Home Sales due at 10:00 am ET should increase slightly to 313K from 312K which is well within the range seen over the past four months.
Richmond Manufacturing Index that is also due at 10:00 am ET is expected to show yet another decline and drop to -7 from previous -1. The recovery seen at the beginning of the year has completely reversed and the projected result would be the lowest since April 2009.
Patrik Urban
German Opposition to Ease on Bond, Premium Trades
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2643
August 22, 2011 08:43 ET :
Chancellor Merkel reaffirms her opposition to Eurozone bond. Gold and silver continue to rise. Market turns to Mortgage delinquencies.
USD is mixed since London open. It is stronger against the GBP, CHF and JPY and weaker against the other majors. After a brief consolidation, risk currencies continue to press higher, currently nearly 100 points off their respective lows.
The sentiment towards the common currency could worsen as German Chancellor Merkel said she would continue to resist the idea of Eurozone bond as a way to solve Eurozones debt crisis. Markets were hoping to hear that such an option is still on the table but it seems that German opposition to the common bond continues to grow. Merkel also said that she will not let financial markets dictate policy and that euro bond are precisely the wrong answer to current debt problem.
Gold continues its relentless ascent and trades 40+ USD higher above Fridays close reaching the high of 1895. Previous reports that gold will struggle to hold above 1800 were proven false as there are still many buyers. The price action on silver is similar to gold as it trades near 44 from Fridays close at 42.99.
To read Ashrafs premium piece on Silver click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=480 Non members can subscribe here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The only fundamental data release for todays New York session is MBAs Mortgage delinquencies for Q2 due at 10:00 am ET. In Q1, delinquencies rose slightly to 8.32% reversing a downward trend that started in May 2010. This lagging indicator provides valuable data about the general health of the housing market as delinquencies are correlated with home inventories.
Patrik Urban
August 22, 2011 08:43 ET :
Chancellor Merkel reaffirms her opposition to Eurozone bond. Gold and silver continue to rise. Market turns to Mortgage delinquencies.
USD is mixed since London open. It is stronger against the GBP, CHF and JPY and weaker against the other majors. After a brief consolidation, risk currencies continue to press higher, currently nearly 100 points off their respective lows.
The sentiment towards the common currency could worsen as German Chancellor Merkel said she would continue to resist the idea of Eurozone bond as a way to solve Eurozones debt crisis. Markets were hoping to hear that such an option is still on the table but it seems that German opposition to the common bond continues to grow. Merkel also said that she will not let financial markets dictate policy and that euro bond are precisely the wrong answer to current debt problem.
Gold continues its relentless ascent and trades 40+ USD higher above Fridays close reaching the high of 1895. Previous reports that gold will struggle to hold above 1800 were proven false as there are still many buyers. The price action on silver is similar to gold as it trades near 44 from Fridays close at 42.99.
To read Ashrafs premium piece on Silver click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=480 Non members can subscribe here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The only fundamental data release for todays New York session is MBAs Mortgage delinquencies for Q2 due at 10:00 am ET. In Q1, delinquencies rose slightly to 8.32% reversing a downward trend that started in May 2010. This lagging indicator provides valuable data about the general health of the housing market as delinquencies are correlated with home inventories.
Patrik Urban
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Gold Nears $1870, Euro Fails to Gain from German PPI
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2639
August 19, 2011 07:45 ET :
Dow & S&P500 futures both down by 1.3%. Gold is less than $150 away from $2000. German July PPI increased to 0.7% from previous 0.1%. On a yearly basis, PPI jumped to 5.8% while analysts expected a rise of only 5.3%. Canada CPI in line with expectations.
UK Public finances improved in July as the budget recorded a surplus of GBP 2B instead of an expected deficit of GBP 0.4 B. New bank tax and a progress in local governments finances contributed to better fiscal position. However, analysts note that this improvement is not enough to hit fiscal forecasts for the year. GBP has been strong despite weak data over the past few days so positive print should provide additional support for longer term players.
Canadian CPI came out in line with expectation at 0.2% after dropping by -0.7% in June. Core CPI also jumped back above the zero level and printed 0.2% as well. The CAD has been under pressure as both Brent oil and WTI have been selling off rather dramatically over the past two days. Slowing growth and low inflation means that it could take some time before rates are hiked. Next BOC rate decision is scheduled for September 7th.
The New York session will not bring any fundamental data releases today so trading will be determined by overall sentiment, capital flows and technicals. Traders should note that at 8:30 am ET FOMC Member William Dudley speaks about economic conditions at the Meadowlands Commission in Lyndhurst. Q&A session will follow his speech and given how dovish his comments usually are, the greenback could sell off.
Thursday's Premium shorts in S&P500 hit all targets, while silver positions are partly executed. Other trades include EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, S&P500, silver, US crude http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=477 To get a trial a click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
August 19, 2011 07:45 ET :
Dow & S&P500 futures both down by 1.3%. Gold is less than $150 away from $2000. German July PPI increased to 0.7% from previous 0.1%. On a yearly basis, PPI jumped to 5.8% while analysts expected a rise of only 5.3%. Canada CPI in line with expectations.
UK Public finances improved in July as the budget recorded a surplus of GBP 2B instead of an expected deficit of GBP 0.4 B. New bank tax and a progress in local governments finances contributed to better fiscal position. However, analysts note that this improvement is not enough to hit fiscal forecasts for the year. GBP has been strong despite weak data over the past few days so positive print should provide additional support for longer term players.
Canadian CPI came out in line with expectation at 0.2% after dropping by -0.7% in June. Core CPI also jumped back above the zero level and printed 0.2% as well. The CAD has been under pressure as both Brent oil and WTI have been selling off rather dramatically over the past two days. Slowing growth and low inflation means that it could take some time before rates are hiked. Next BOC rate decision is scheduled for September 7th.
The New York session will not bring any fundamental data releases today so trading will be determined by overall sentiment, capital flows and technicals. Traders should note that at 8:30 am ET FOMC Member William Dudley speaks about economic conditions at the Meadowlands Commission in Lyndhurst. Q&A session will follow his speech and given how dovish his comments usually are, the greenback could sell off.
Thursday's Premium shorts in S&P500 hit all targets, while silver positions are partly executed. Other trades include EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, S&P500, silver, US crude http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=477 To get a trial a click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Forex video komentář 15.8.2011
Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu - Forex - od analytika a profesionálního tradera Patrika Urbana.
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanáluzde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanáluzde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
USD Depreciates As Risk Appetite Returns
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2631
August 17, 2011 07:48 ET
GBP recovered after dropping due to weak data. Eurozone inflation slowed in July. CHF gains after SNB disappoints with lack of radical steps to curb CHF rise. Market turns to July PPI and Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases.
GBP dropped across the board after July Jobless Claims increased to 37.1K well above expected 20K and the Unemployment rate increased to 7.9% from previous 7.7%. Furthermore, the MPC meeting minutes showed that no member was calling for additional interest rate hikes. Some members considered increasing asset purchases while others noted that the case for more QE is not yet strong enough. In reaction, GBPUSD dropped from around 1.6430 to 1.6350 hitting all GBP targets mentioned in Ashrafs latest premium piece. GBP has since recovered and currently trades above the pre-release level around 1.6430.
Core Eurozone consumer inflation slowed to 1.2% in July from previous 1.6% while headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.5%. Monthly inflation dropped by 0.6%. Slower growth in Eurozone combined with the ongoing debt crisis contributed to lower price level.
CHF gained after SNB did not announce any radical steps to curb the currencys rise. The SNB decided to increase money market liquidity but did not announce speculated peg against the Euro nor negative interest rates. The SNB continues to view the Franc as being massively overvalued and there is a talk that SNB could set an exchange rate floor. EURCHF has dropped from 1547 to 1220 immediately after the press conference.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with July PPI that is expected to stay unchanged on a monthly basis after dropping by 0.4% in June. Core PPI is expected at 0.2%. Given the disappointingly slow growth in the US, there is likely to be little pressure on producers as sales slow down.
8:30 am ET will also bring Canadian Foreign securities purchases that are expected to decrease to CAD 10.3B after shooting to CAD 15.4B a month earlier.
Patrik Urban
August 17, 2011 07:48 ET
GBP recovered after dropping due to weak data. Eurozone inflation slowed in July. CHF gains after SNB disappoints with lack of radical steps to curb CHF rise. Market turns to July PPI and Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases.
GBP dropped across the board after July Jobless Claims increased to 37.1K well above expected 20K and the Unemployment rate increased to 7.9% from previous 7.7%. Furthermore, the MPC meeting minutes showed that no member was calling for additional interest rate hikes. Some members considered increasing asset purchases while others noted that the case for more QE is not yet strong enough. In reaction, GBPUSD dropped from around 1.6430 to 1.6350 hitting all GBP targets mentioned in Ashrafs latest premium piece. GBP has since recovered and currently trades above the pre-release level around 1.6430.
Core Eurozone consumer inflation slowed to 1.2% in July from previous 1.6% while headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.5%. Monthly inflation dropped by 0.6%. Slower growth in Eurozone combined with the ongoing debt crisis contributed to lower price level.
CHF gained after SNB did not announce any radical steps to curb the currencys rise. The SNB decided to increase money market liquidity but did not announce speculated peg against the Euro nor negative interest rates. The SNB continues to view the Franc as being massively overvalued and there is a talk that SNB could set an exchange rate floor. EURCHF has dropped from 1547 to 1220 immediately after the press conference.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with July PPI that is expected to stay unchanged on a monthly basis after dropping by 0.4% in June. Core PPI is expected at 0.2%. Given the disappointingly slow growth in the US, there is likely to be little pressure on producers as sales slow down.
8:30 am ET will also bring Canadian Foreign securities purchases that are expected to decrease to CAD 10.3B after shooting to CAD 15.4B a month earlier.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Euro Pulls Back After Weak GDP Data
Euro pulls back after weak German and Eurozone GDP growth numbers. UK inflation came out above expectation. Markets await Merkel/Sarkozy press conference and US housing data, Capacity utilization and Industrial production.
The Euro pulled back after Q2 Euro zone GDP grew by 0.2% from previous 0.8% while the market anticipated 0.3%. The weak print was not surprising given the weak German GDP growth (0.1%) we saw just a few hours earlier.
GBP is a touch stronger after July CPI came out at 4.4% y/y up from previous 4.2% and slightly higher than expected 4.3%. Monthly CPI was unchanged. GBP continues to trade at session highs despite BoE King’s comments that Euro crisis could cause severe stress in the UK markets and that QE could be used to respond to risks.
Markets will eagerly wait for the result of a Merkel/Sarkozy meeting in Paris. Officially, the Eurobond topic should not be discussed but any hints during the press conference planned at 12:30 pm ET that such a solution is on the table should underpin the Euro.
Fiscally responsible countries, such as Germany, have been against the common bond idea but as debt crisis spreads into more and more countries genuine solutions are hard to come by. The Eurobond would most likely calm the markets as weaker countries could borrow at a lower cost.
The New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with July Building permits that are expected to decrease slightly to 605K from 617K and July Housing starts that are also projected to decrease, in this case to 600K from previous 629K.
At 9:15 am ET the Federal Reserve will release July Capacity Utilization rate estimated increase to 77% from previous 76.7% and Industrial production that is expected to improve by 0.5% from previous growth by 0.2%.
Patrik Urban
The Euro pulled back after Q2 Euro zone GDP grew by 0.2% from previous 0.8% while the market anticipated 0.3%. The weak print was not surprising given the weak German GDP growth (0.1%) we saw just a few hours earlier.
GBP is a touch stronger after July CPI came out at 4.4% y/y up from previous 4.2% and slightly higher than expected 4.3%. Monthly CPI was unchanged. GBP continues to trade at session highs despite BoE King’s comments that Euro crisis could cause severe stress in the UK markets and that QE could be used to respond to risks.
Markets will eagerly wait for the result of a Merkel/Sarkozy meeting in Paris. Officially, the Eurobond topic should not be discussed but any hints during the press conference planned at 12:30 pm ET that such a solution is on the table should underpin the Euro.
Fiscally responsible countries, such as Germany, have been against the common bond idea but as debt crisis spreads into more and more countries genuine solutions are hard to come by. The Eurobond would most likely calm the markets as weaker countries could borrow at a lower cost.
The New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with July Building permits that are expected to decrease slightly to 605K from 617K and July Housing starts that are also projected to decrease, in this case to 600K from previous 629K.
At 9:15 am ET the Federal Reserve will release July Capacity Utilization rate estimated increase to 77% from previous 76.7% and Industrial production that is expected to improve by 0.5% from previous growth by 0.2%.
Patrik Urban
Monday, August 15, 2011
Swissy Continues To Depreciate
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2624
August 15, 2011 09:03 ET
USD is mixed since London open. BoE Miles comments underpin GBP and CHF continues to weaken. Market awaits manufacturing and capital flows data.
CHF continues to be sold across the board as Reuters suggests that SNB will introduce and defend a limit on CHF strength. This news combined with the ongoing speculation that SNB will peg the Franc to the Euro sent CHF sharply lower over the past three days. EURCHF trades 300+ pips above Fridays close and USDCHF reached 0.7997 which is nearly 1000 points above lows reached on August 9th.
GBP is higher after BoE Miles said that additional asset purchases are not needed now and that monetary policy will eventually move back to normal. As a result, GBPUSD broke above recent highs and currently trades above the 1.63 level.
Any Euro strength is likely to fade as German government spokesman said that Eurobonds will not be discussed at tomorrows meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy. Any breakthrough in talks is therefore unlikely.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with August Empire State Manufacturing Index that is expected to improve to 0.8 from previous -3.8. Negative prints that we saw during June and July indicate worsening conditions so print above zero would be an encouraging sign of stabilization.
At 9:00 am ET the US Treasury releases TIC data indicating capital flows. On net basis, the demand for longer term securities is expected to improve slightly to USD 30.4B from previous USD 23.6B. Over the past four months prints have stabilized in the USD 25-30B range which is still somewhat low from a historical perspective.
Last news from the US comes at 10:00 am when the NAHB releases its Housing Market Index. In August the index is expected to stay unchanged at 15 which is at the lower part of the recent range.
Patrik Urban
August 15, 2011 09:03 ET
USD is mixed since London open. BoE Miles comments underpin GBP and CHF continues to weaken. Market awaits manufacturing and capital flows data.
CHF continues to be sold across the board as Reuters suggests that SNB will introduce and defend a limit on CHF strength. This news combined with the ongoing speculation that SNB will peg the Franc to the Euro sent CHF sharply lower over the past three days. EURCHF trades 300+ pips above Fridays close and USDCHF reached 0.7997 which is nearly 1000 points above lows reached on August 9th.
GBP is higher after BoE Miles said that additional asset purchases are not needed now and that monetary policy will eventually move back to normal. As a result, GBPUSD broke above recent highs and currently trades above the 1.63 level.
Any Euro strength is likely to fade as German government spokesman said that Eurobonds will not be discussed at tomorrows meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy. Any breakthrough in talks is therefore unlikely.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with August Empire State Manufacturing Index that is expected to improve to 0.8 from previous -3.8. Negative prints that we saw during June and July indicate worsening conditions so print above zero would be an encouraging sign of stabilization.
At 9:00 am ET the US Treasury releases TIC data indicating capital flows. On net basis, the demand for longer term securities is expected to improve slightly to USD 30.4B from previous USD 23.6B. Over the past four months prints have stabilized in the USD 25-30B range which is still somewhat low from a historical perspective.
Last news from the US comes at 10:00 am when the NAHB releases its Housing Market Index. In August the index is expected to stay unchanged at 15 which is at the lower part of the recent range.
Patrik Urban
Monday, August 1, 2011
UK Manufacturing PMI drops; US ISM Manuf is next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2582
August 1, 2011 08:48 ET :
USD continues to be sold despite a preliminary agreement on US debt ceiling. UK manufacturing sector contracts, Eurozone unemployment stays unchanged. Market turns to US July ISM manufacturing PMI.
USD shorts were covered during Asian trading but USD strength did not last long. Since London traders got to their desks they continue to sell the greenback as US downgrade has not been completely averted. Equity markets are higher on improved risk aversion while gold and silver pulled back slightly.
GBP was sold even against the weak USD after UK manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.1 from previous 51.4 which marks not only the sixth month of gradual worsening but also the weakest print since June 2009. Readings below the 50 level imply a sector contraction. MPC will announce their interest rate decision on Thursday. In light of latest round of weak data, rate hike seems unlikely.
Eurozone unemployment stayed unchanged and in line with expectations at 9.9% and final German manufacturing PMI for July was confirmed at 52 from 52.1. Eurozone manufacturing PMI in July was not revised and stayed at 50.4.
The New York session starts at 10:00 am ET with ISM manufacturing PMI for July. Analysts predict an unchanged reading at 50.4 which would be not only four months low but also dangerously close to the 50 mark that suggests a contraction.
Voting is expected today on preliminary agreement on US debt ceiling. Should the agreement be voted into a law, the greenback should see a relief rally.
Patrik Urban
August 1, 2011 08:48 ET :
USD continues to be sold despite a preliminary agreement on US debt ceiling. UK manufacturing sector contracts, Eurozone unemployment stays unchanged. Market turns to US July ISM manufacturing PMI.
USD shorts were covered during Asian trading but USD strength did not last long. Since London traders got to their desks they continue to sell the greenback as US downgrade has not been completely averted. Equity markets are higher on improved risk aversion while gold and silver pulled back slightly.
GBP was sold even against the weak USD after UK manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.1 from previous 51.4 which marks not only the sixth month of gradual worsening but also the weakest print since June 2009. Readings below the 50 level imply a sector contraction. MPC will announce their interest rate decision on Thursday. In light of latest round of weak data, rate hike seems unlikely.
Eurozone unemployment stayed unchanged and in line with expectations at 9.9% and final German manufacturing PMI for July was confirmed at 52 from 52.1. Eurozone manufacturing PMI in July was not revised and stayed at 50.4.
The New York session starts at 10:00 am ET with ISM manufacturing PMI for July. Analysts predict an unchanged reading at 50.4 which would be not only four months low but also dangerously close to the 50 mark that suggests a contraction.
Voting is expected today on preliminary agreement on US debt ceiling. Should the agreement be voted into a law, the greenback should see a relief rally.
Patrik Urban
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