http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2394
May 20, 2011 08:06 ET : Euro is weak across the board on lingering Greece & Spain concerns as well as a negative Bundesbank report. CAD Dragged by weak CPI, now awaiting retail sales.
Euro fell on a combination of prolonged concerns with Greece and Spain as well as a report from the Bundesbank indicating German weakness in the foreseeable future. Also weighing on EUR were remarks by Bank of Slovakia Jozef Makuch who is also on ECBs governing council , indicating
that inflation spike is temporary and inflation is well anchored in mid to longer term in EZ. EUR currently weak across the board and even higher German April PPI rose to 1.0% from last 0.4% and on annualized basis firmed up to 6.4% from previous 6.2% did not provide support.
In Canada, May CPI decreased significantly to 0.3% (0.5% exp.) from
last reading of 1.1%. Core CPI was also on the weak side at 0.2% (0.1%
exp.) from previous 0.7% slightly undermining the need to increase
interest rates before Q4. BoC meets 5 more times this year in May,
July, September, October and December.
Markets awaits Canadian Retail Sales at 8:30 am EDT, expecting an improvement to 0.9% from Aprils 0.4%. Positive reading would mark a back to back improvement after two negative readings in February and March. Core retail sales are expected to improve slightly from 0.7% to 0.8%.
Today there are no economic releases from the US.
In absence of news releases, trading is likely to be determined by
risk on/risk off sentiment and technical indicators will become more
important.
After a strong USD close last week, USD bulls were ready to keep
pushing higher. Most US economic releases this
week disappointed (with the exception of slightly better than expected
unemployment claims yesterday) so the sentiment started to shift. Over
the past three days USD closed at lower levels each day and unless
there is a large, USD positive move during today's trading, USD will
have lost most of its gains from last week. USD bulls are unlikely to
give up just yet. Also watch out from options expiry in the US today, which could add extra volatility to indices later in the session.
By PU -AshrafLaidi.com Staff
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
GBP sees a lift after much improved Retail Sales, CHF slides as Zew index disappoints
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2390
May 19, 2011 08:17 ET : Risk appetite is improving and higher yielding currencies are trading near their highs of the session. GBP is retracing a portion of yesterdays losses after May retail sales showed a solid reading of 1.1%, much improved from Aprils 0.3%. Retail sales often show volatile results and at least a portion of todays reading can be attributed to sales related to the Royal Wedding.
Relative strength loser is CHF after May Zew Economic Expectations index came out significantly weaker at -11.5 from last 8.8. CHF is weaker across the board. Last months print of 8.8 was the only positive reading since September 2010.
Upcoming US session will bring unemployment claims at 8:30 am EDT, expected to improve slightly to 421K from last weeks 434K. For the past five weeks market saw readings over 400K which shows labor market deterioration after 7 weeks of sub 400K readings seen during late February to early April.
At 10:00 am May Existing Home Sales will be released expected to improve to 5.21M from last 5.10M. Housing market is critically important for US consumers and while there are some encouraging signs, weakness persists. Existing home sales have been improving since August 2010 but are still far below pre-crisis levels. New home sales are still at decades lows.
Philly Fed manufacturing index will also be released at 10:00 am EDT. After a significant improvement seen at the end of 2010 and early 2011 Philly Fed index dropped in April from 43.4 to 18.5. May reading is expected to show slight improvement to 20.2.
Recent trend towards USD strength seems to be getting tired and the greenback has closed at weak levels over the past two days. From this point of view, the close of todays NY session is extremely important. Additional USD weakness and a close below yesterdays low would point to change in bias and USD could become a sell on rallies.
For the latest trading ideas on OIL, EURUSD, GOLD, SILVER & CADJPY, see our Premium Intermarket Insights here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=429
by P.U, AshrafLaidi.com Staff
May 19, 2011 08:17 ET : Risk appetite is improving and higher yielding currencies are trading near their highs of the session. GBP is retracing a portion of yesterdays losses after May retail sales showed a solid reading of 1.1%, much improved from Aprils 0.3%. Retail sales often show volatile results and at least a portion of todays reading can be attributed to sales related to the Royal Wedding.
Relative strength loser is CHF after May Zew Economic Expectations index came out significantly weaker at -11.5 from last 8.8. CHF is weaker across the board. Last months print of 8.8 was the only positive reading since September 2010.
Upcoming US session will bring unemployment claims at 8:30 am EDT, expected to improve slightly to 421K from last weeks 434K. For the past five weeks market saw readings over 400K which shows labor market deterioration after 7 weeks of sub 400K readings seen during late February to early April.
At 10:00 am May Existing Home Sales will be released expected to improve to 5.21M from last 5.10M. Housing market is critically important for US consumers and while there are some encouraging signs, weakness persists. Existing home sales have been improving since August 2010 but are still far below pre-crisis levels. New home sales are still at decades lows.
Philly Fed manufacturing index will also be released at 10:00 am EDT. After a significant improvement seen at the end of 2010 and early 2011 Philly Fed index dropped in April from 43.4 to 18.5. May reading is expected to show slight improvement to 20.2.
Recent trend towards USD strength seems to be getting tired and the greenback has closed at weak levels over the past two days. From this point of view, the close of todays NY session is extremely important. Additional USD weakness and a close below yesterdays low would point to change in bias and USD could become a sell on rallies.
For the latest trading ideas on OIL, EURUSD, GOLD, SILVER & CADJPY, see our Premium Intermarket Insights here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=429
by P.U, AshrafLaidi.com Staff
GBP Deepens Losses After UK Jobs, BoE
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2386
May 18, 2011 08:43 ET : GBP loses its luster after UK jobless claims come out much worse at 12.4K vs 0.700K expected. This is the worst reading since February 2010. To make things worse, March reading was revised up from 0.7K to 6.4K, which points to a significant weakening in the labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment rate has improved from 7.8% to 7.7% while the market expected worsening to 7.9%.
Another important UK news came in form of BoE MPC minutes. As
expected, voting pattern remained unchanged 6-3 in favor of keeping
rates steady. Rumors that Martin Weale had changed his vote proved
false as he did vote for a rate hike again. QE will continue to stay
at GBP 200B.
On the back of labor market disappointment GBPUSD loses all of its
yesterdays gains as it trades full cent off yesterday's highs and is
currently trading near session lows at 1.6170.
See Ashraf's GBPUSD chart in Monday's Premium piece, warning of 1.6120 being the confluence support of May Trendline & 100 dma here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=425
Minutes from April FOMC meeting due at 2:00 pm EST could shed some light onto QE2 exit strategy. Considering the news conference that Ben Bernanke had right after the April FOMC meeting it is not very likely that todays minutes could shock the market with a big surprise.
USD is consolidating yesterdays losses and most currencies are trading near their yesterdays highs. It would be necessary to see another down day and another weak closing to turn the recent trend toward USD strength around and shift bias down.
See Ashraf's TECHNICAL INTERMARKET PARAMETERS on this piece ($SPX, DOW-30, FTSE-100, RUSSELL 2000, GOLD, OIL, EURUSD)
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=428
By PU - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
May 18, 2011 08:43 ET : GBP loses its luster after UK jobless claims come out much worse at 12.4K vs 0.700K expected. This is the worst reading since February 2010. To make things worse, March reading was revised up from 0.7K to 6.4K, which points to a significant weakening in the labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment rate has improved from 7.8% to 7.7% while the market expected worsening to 7.9%.
Another important UK news came in form of BoE MPC minutes. As
expected, voting pattern remained unchanged 6-3 in favor of keeping
rates steady. Rumors that Martin Weale had changed his vote proved
false as he did vote for a rate hike again. QE will continue to stay
at GBP 200B.
On the back of labor market disappointment GBPUSD loses all of its
yesterdays gains as it trades full cent off yesterday's highs and is
currently trading near session lows at 1.6170.
See Ashraf's GBPUSD chart in Monday's Premium piece, warning of 1.6120 being the confluence support of May Trendline & 100 dma here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=425
Minutes from April FOMC meeting due at 2:00 pm EST could shed some light onto QE2 exit strategy. Considering the news conference that Ben Bernanke had right after the April FOMC meeting it is not very likely that todays minutes could shock the market with a big surprise.
USD is consolidating yesterdays losses and most currencies are trading near their yesterdays highs. It would be necessary to see another down day and another weak closing to turn the recent trend toward USD strength around and shift bias down.
See Ashraf's TECHNICAL INTERMARKET PARAMETERS on this piece ($SPX, DOW-30, FTSE-100, RUSSELL 2000, GOLD, OIL, EURUSD)
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=428
By PU - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
UK CPI highest since '08; Onto US Housing & IP
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2382
May 17, 2011 08:14 ET : GBP bounces off the lows after highest inflation reading since 2008, EUR supported by agreement to provide aid to Portugal. EURUSD still in a downtrend and far from turning bullish.
USD is little changed against most other currencies with the exception of GBP and JPY. GBP is once again supported by higher then expected inflation figures. UK CPI year over year came out at 4.5%, higher then expected 4.2% and up from the latest 4.0% (core 3.7% vs. 3.4%). Month over month CPI saw a print of 1%. As a result, GBPUSD jumped to 1.6307 but has met selling pressure and has retreated back pre-announcement levels at 1.6260. This reading is the highest since October 2008.
See Ashraf's long & short strategies for GBPUSD in yesterday's Premium insights http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=425
Bank of Englads governor Mervyn King in his Inflation Letter blames higher readings on VAT increase, high energy and import prices and sees further rise in CPI in coming months.
Euro has gained slightly against the greenback after European finance ministers agreed to provide 78B Euro aid package to Portugal. This aid has to be approved by all EZ countries. Euro is holding at session highs, currently at 1.4210 and that is despite the disappointing German ZEW economic sentiment index that came out at 3.1 much worse than previous 7.6. Market expected 4.8. This result is the worst since February and marks four months of gradual worsening in sentiment.
News releases published during the upcoming US session will include building permits that are expected unchanged at 0.59M and housing starts that are expected to improve slightly from 0.55M to 0.58M. These releases are published at 8:30 am EDT.
As QE2 is coming closer to its end, any indicators that can be used to gauge future inflation will become more closely watched. At 9:15 am EDT capacity utilization and US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION will be released. Capacity utilization has been slowly but steadily increasing since July 2009 and market expects another improvement from 77.4% to 77.7%. Generally, it is assumed that only move over 80% would start to create inflationary pressures. Industrial production is expected to worsen from 0.8% to 0.5%. It is however important to keep in mind that this indicator is very volatile.
Kiwi traders will be waiting for PPI q/q numbers coming out at 6:45 pm EDT. Market expects a decrease from 0.9% to 0.6%. Price action has been decidedly negative so any downside surprise is likely to punish NZD strongly.
by PU - AshrafLaidi.com staff
May 17, 2011 08:14 ET : GBP bounces off the lows after highest inflation reading since 2008, EUR supported by agreement to provide aid to Portugal. EURUSD still in a downtrend and far from turning bullish.
USD is little changed against most other currencies with the exception of GBP and JPY. GBP is once again supported by higher then expected inflation figures. UK CPI year over year came out at 4.5%, higher then expected 4.2% and up from the latest 4.0% (core 3.7% vs. 3.4%). Month over month CPI saw a print of 1%. As a result, GBPUSD jumped to 1.6307 but has met selling pressure and has retreated back pre-announcement levels at 1.6260. This reading is the highest since October 2008.
See Ashraf's long & short strategies for GBPUSD in yesterday's Premium insights http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=425
Bank of Englads governor Mervyn King in his Inflation Letter blames higher readings on VAT increase, high energy and import prices and sees further rise in CPI in coming months.
Euro has gained slightly against the greenback after European finance ministers agreed to provide 78B Euro aid package to Portugal. This aid has to be approved by all EZ countries. Euro is holding at session highs, currently at 1.4210 and that is despite the disappointing German ZEW economic sentiment index that came out at 3.1 much worse than previous 7.6. Market expected 4.8. This result is the worst since February and marks four months of gradual worsening in sentiment.
News releases published during the upcoming US session will include building permits that are expected unchanged at 0.59M and housing starts that are expected to improve slightly from 0.55M to 0.58M. These releases are published at 8:30 am EDT.
As QE2 is coming closer to its end, any indicators that can be used to gauge future inflation will become more closely watched. At 9:15 am EDT capacity utilization and US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION will be released. Capacity utilization has been slowly but steadily increasing since July 2009 and market expects another improvement from 77.4% to 77.7%. Generally, it is assumed that only move over 80% would start to create inflationary pressures. Industrial production is expected to worsen from 0.8% to 0.5%. It is however important to keep in mind that this indicator is very volatile.
Kiwi traders will be waiting for PPI q/q numbers coming out at 6:45 pm EDT. Market expects a decrease from 0.9% to 0.6%. Price action has been decidedly negative so any downside surprise is likely to punish NZD strongly.
by PU - AshrafLaidi.com staff
Disappointing US data sends USD lower; USD buying likely to resume later
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2378
May 16, 2011 13:49 ET : USD is giving up earlier gains after a number of US data releases disappointed this morning. Empire State Manufacturing Index disappointed when it came out at 11.9 from previous 21.7. Market expected 20.7.
TIC data describing net foreign purchases of long-term securities came out worse than expected at 24B. This reading marks deterioration as even the previous reading of 27.2B was regarded as highly disappointing. Market expected 57.7B.
Even NAHB Housing Market Index fell short of expectations when results came out at 16 compared to 17 expected.
As a result USD is giving up earlier gains across the board. EURUSD is currently 130+ points up from todays lows. Strong downtrend is however likely to attract selling. Only a close above last Fridays highs could be interpreted as a sign of diminishing bearish sentiment.
Aussie traders will want to pay attention to the minutes from the latest Monetary PolicyMeeting that will be released at 9:30 pm EDT. Over the past two weeks AUDUSD lost 500 points and according to COT report futures holdings were trimmed only a bit.AUDUSD can easily become sell on rallies and unwinding of accumulated longs could send AUD much lower. The market implied chances of a June hike fell from over 50% toabout 30% so even from a macro perspective holding AUD became less interesting then only a short time ago.
by P.U. - AshrafLaidi.com staff
May 16, 2011 13:49 ET : USD is giving up earlier gains after a number of US data releases disappointed this morning. Empire State Manufacturing Index disappointed when it came out at 11.9 from previous 21.7. Market expected 20.7.
TIC data describing net foreign purchases of long-term securities came out worse than expected at 24B. This reading marks deterioration as even the previous reading of 27.2B was regarded as highly disappointing. Market expected 57.7B.
Even NAHB Housing Market Index fell short of expectations when results came out at 16 compared to 17 expected.
As a result USD is giving up earlier gains across the board. EURUSD is currently 130+ points up from todays lows. Strong downtrend is however likely to attract selling. Only a close above last Fridays highs could be interpreted as a sign of diminishing bearish sentiment.
Aussie traders will want to pay attention to the minutes from the latest Monetary PolicyMeeting that will be released at 9:30 pm EDT. Over the past two weeks AUDUSD lost 500 points and according to COT report futures holdings were trimmed only a bit.AUDUSD can easily become sell on rallies and unwinding of accumulated longs could send AUD much lower. The market implied chances of a June hike fell from over 50% toabout 30% so even from a macro perspective holding AUD became less interesting then only a short time ago.
by P.U. - AshrafLaidi.com staff
Market awaits US CPI figures; EUR weekly close critical
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2374
May 13, 2011 07:47 ET : EURUSD gained a full cent on the back of good GDP numbers but has since slipped back slightly. GBPUSD continues to trade heavy near the lows of the day.
Euro was supported during the London session after both French and German Q1 GDP numbers came out much better than expected at 1.5% and 1.0% respectively. Market expected only a modest growth at 0.9% and 0.6%. Whole Eurozone preliminary GDP q/q also came out better than expected at 0.8% vs. 0.6% expected.
EURUSD gained a full cent and reached a high of 1.4340 but has slipped back slightly. Cable continues to be the relative strength loser and trades near the lows of the day. Risk on atmosphere underpinned silver (up 2 USD/oz on the day) and gold (up nearly 15 USD/oz).
Trading during the US session is likely to be determined by core CPI released at 8:30 EDT. Market expects an increase to 0.2% m/m from last 0.1%. Higher then expected reading could send the greenback sharply higher as this would support hawkish voices inside of the FED. A sustained rise in the year on year consumer inflation level would make a future increase in Fed Funds Rate or a decision to start shrinking FEDs balance sheet more likely and it would virtually eliminate the possibility of QE3. Obviously, lower then expected core CPI reading will have the opposite effect. Headline CPI reading is expected at 0.4% m/m after last months 0.5%.
More details on QE2 exit strategy can be found in yesterdays IMT.
Second and last data release of the day is University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released at 9:55 EDT. Traders expect an improvement from last reading of 69.8 to 70.0. Unless we see a significant improvement/disappointment, this release is not likely to change a direction that markets will take after the more important core CPI number.
Should EURUSD close above 1.4250s, then we could see a range bound market for the next few trading sessions. If the US inflation data comes higher and EURUSD closes daily as well as weekly candle near the lows, path to 1.40 continues to be open.
PU - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
May 13, 2011 07:47 ET : EURUSD gained a full cent on the back of good GDP numbers but has since slipped back slightly. GBPUSD continues to trade heavy near the lows of the day.
Euro was supported during the London session after both French and German Q1 GDP numbers came out much better than expected at 1.5% and 1.0% respectively. Market expected only a modest growth at 0.9% and 0.6%. Whole Eurozone preliminary GDP q/q also came out better than expected at 0.8% vs. 0.6% expected.
EURUSD gained a full cent and reached a high of 1.4340 but has slipped back slightly. Cable continues to be the relative strength loser and trades near the lows of the day. Risk on atmosphere underpinned silver (up 2 USD/oz on the day) and gold (up nearly 15 USD/oz).
Trading during the US session is likely to be determined by core CPI released at 8:30 EDT. Market expects an increase to 0.2% m/m from last 0.1%. Higher then expected reading could send the greenback sharply higher as this would support hawkish voices inside of the FED. A sustained rise in the year on year consumer inflation level would make a future increase in Fed Funds Rate or a decision to start shrinking FEDs balance sheet more likely and it would virtually eliminate the possibility of QE3. Obviously, lower then expected core CPI reading will have the opposite effect. Headline CPI reading is expected at 0.4% m/m after last months 0.5%.
More details on QE2 exit strategy can be found in yesterdays IMT.
Second and last data release of the day is University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released at 9:55 EDT. Traders expect an improvement from last reading of 69.8 to 70.0. Unless we see a significant improvement/disappointment, this release is not likely to change a direction that markets will take after the more important core CPI number.
Should EURUSD close above 1.4250s, then we could see a range bound market for the next few trading sessions. If the US inflation data comes higher and EURUSD closes daily as well as weekly candle near the lows, path to 1.40 continues to be open.
PU - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Another example of a recent article
Half a million unemployment claims confirm that the economy is in a free fall
The original article published on 08/20/2010 can be found here:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/patrik-urbanpul-milionu-zadosti-o-podporu-potvrdilo-krizi-ekonomiky.html
The original article published on 08/20/2010 can be found here:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/patrik-urbanpul-milionu-zadosti-o-podporu-potvrdilo-krizi-ekonomiky.html
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Example of my recent article:
You can view an example of one of my recent analysis here:
Falling equity markets; EURUSD finally below 1.30
The original article from 5. 5. 2010 can be found here:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/patrik-urban+akciove-trhy-padaji-eurusd-konecne-pod-130.html
Falling equity markets; EURUSD finally below 1.30
The original article from 5. 5. 2010 can be found here:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/patrik-urban+akciove-trhy-padaji-eurusd-konecne-pod-130.html
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Please note that since November 2009 my articles, commentaries and FX analysis have been published on FXstreet.cz
Please note that since November 2009 my articles, commentaries and FX analysis have been published on www.fxstreet.cz. Since January 2010 they also appear on www.ihned.cz in the investment section.
List of analysis can be found here:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/patrik-urban.html
My articles appear here:
http://fxstreet.cz/clanky.html
Analysis and commentaries are also published here:
http://investice.ihned.cz/
Their list can be found here:
http://ihned.cz/index.php?article[aut_id]=13220680|13276070&p=000000_authoroverview
For translation please insert the URL of the article or copy and paste the text here:
http://translate.google.com/#cs|en|
List of analysis can be found here:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/patrik-urban.html
My articles appear here:
http://fxstreet.cz/clanky.html
Analysis and commentaries are also published here:
http://investice.ihned.cz/
Their list can be found here:
http://ihned.cz/index.php?article[aut_id]=13220680|13276070&p=000000_authoroverview
For translation please insert the URL of the article or copy and paste the text here:
http://translate.google.com/#cs|en|
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