Trh stále konsoliduje před zasedáním FOMC a ECB

31.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Dohady o tom, že nadcházející čínské výrobní PMI zklame, poslaly na začátku londýnské obchodní seance americký dolar (USD) výše. Potom se ale sentiment zlepšil a dolar se proti některým hlavním měnám propadl pod včerejší minima. Slova předního německého politika o tom, že bankovní licence pro fond ESM je nereálná ale opět posunula dolar výše a ten se nyní obchoduje proti většině měn mírně silnější.

Evropský kalendář byl dnes plný reportů. Německé maloobchodní tržby zklamaly a byly výrazně pod očekáváním, protože za červen vykázaly pád o 0,1 % po 0,3 % pádu v květnu. Německý trh práce zatím ale vykazuje vysokou houževnatost, protože zůstal beze změny – nezaměstnanost zůstala na 7 tisících a míra nezaměstnanosti na 6,8 %.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trh-stale-konsoliduje-pred-zasedanim-fomc-a-ecb.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

Onto Chicago PMI & CAD GDP

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3464

July 31, 2012 08:19 ET :

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German retail sales disappoint but labor market steady; Eurozone CPI and unemployment rate unchanged; Italian unemployment rate rose. Market turns to core PCE; personal spending, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and Canadian GDP. Latest trades in our New Look Premium Insights in EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, with Gold and Silver.

Rumors of weak manufacturing PMI data from China kept the greenback bid at the beginning of London trading. Later in the session risk trades pushed higher across the board some breaking above their yesterday's highs. However, some of these gains were erased after German senior lawmaker said that he could not see ESM banking license becoming a reality.

Europe had a busy calendar today. German retail sales were below expectations as they declined 0.1% in June after falling 0.3% in May. Nevertheless, the annual figure improved to 2.9% from previous -1.1%. German labor market showed no change in July as unemployment remained steady in at 7K and the unemployment rate stayed at 6.8%.

Eurozone CPI was steady in July at 2.4% and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.2%. Italian labor market continues to deteriorate as the unemployment rate rose again in June to 10.8% from previous 10.6%. EURUSD currently trades around 1.2285 and a breakout seems unlikely as participants will not want to open fresh positions ahead of tomorrow's FOMC and Thursday's ECB decisions.

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with core PCE that is anticipated to rise 0.2% in June from 0.1% m/m but remain steady at 1.8% y/y. Personal spending is seen 0.1% higher after a flat reading in May.

Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am and it is expected to decline in July to 52.6 from 52.9 and finally consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am is seen lower in July at 61.5 from 62.0.

CAD traders await May GDP that is expected to slow to 0.2% from previous 0.3% m/m but rise to 2.6% from 2.0% y/y. USDCAD traded just a few points above parity during the London session.

Our latest Premium Insights have 7 new trades, 2 in progress and 6 all hit from Thursdays edition. New trades are in EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, Gold and Silver. 3 charts on EURUSD, AUDUSD and Silver. Click here for direct access: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=671 Non Subscribers can click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Týdenní FOREX videokomentář - FXstreet.cz

http://www.fxstreet.cz/tydenni-forex-videokomentar-fxstreetcz.html

30.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku. Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

Busy Week Ahead, Webinar Link & Latest on Premium

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3461
July 30, 2012 07:41 ET :

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Big week ahead; Spanish GDP worse; European business climate falls; UK mortgage approvals lower and CBI realized sales fell; Italian auction. 5 trades from Thursdays Premium Insights hit all targets, 3 in progress and 3 unfilled. Dont forget to register for Ashrafs Thursday webinar (Post FOMC & Pre-NFP) with Fari Hamzei & George Cavaligos. See link below.

USD mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against JPY and commodity dollars and slightly stronger against EUR, CHF and GBP. European equities are gaining nearly 1% and the relative strength winner is AUD.

This will be a busy week with key events being the FOMC, ECB and BOE decisions along with US jobs report on Friday. The ECB president Draghi's comments that sent EUR higher last week laid ground for some sort of easing policy (LTRO3, rate cut, bond buying via SMP) and if the market does not get it, the sentiment improvement may prove to be short lived. The FOMC meets one day ahead of the ECB which could, unless a new coordinated action is announced, put it in a difficult position. The market is currently pricing the probability of a 25 bps cut by the ECB at 17%.

European data showed that Spanish Q2 GDP slowed to -0.4% from -0.3% q/q (-1.0% from -0.4% y/y) and Eurozone business climate worsened in July to -1.27 from -0.95. Yet, Spanish 10 year yield continues to decline and currently trades around 6.58%. EURUSD trades slightly lower around 1.2275.
In the UK, lending to individuals declined sharply in June to GBP 0.3 bln from previous GBP 1.1 bln, mortgage approvals slumped in June to 44K from 51 in May and CBI realized sales fell in July to 11 from previous 17. GBPUSD trades lower around 1.5695.

Italy sold bonds with various maturities totaling EUR 5.48 bln vs. 5.5 bln target. Average yields declined but cover was mainly lower as well.
Data calendar for the US session is limited to Dallas FED manufacturing that is due at 10:30 am ET and it is expected to decline sharply in July to 2.5 from previous 5.8.

Ashrafs Thursday Joint webinar with Fari Hamzei & George Cavaligos at 15:00 Chicago, 16:00 New York, 21:00 London Register here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/ register/ 587846961

Patrik Urban

US Shifts to US GDP, EUR Eyes 1.2380s

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3458
July 27, 2012 07:29 ET :

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Bundesbank against ESM banking license and ECB bond buying; Italian auction; Spanish and Italian 10 year yield declining; Swiss KOF rose; Spanish unemployment rate record high. Market turns to Q2 GDP. Thursdays Premium Insights issued 10 new trades, with 1 remaining unfilled (USDJPY), 1 of 2 EURUSD longs in progress (other unfilled by 9 pips). More on EURJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and metals below.

FX consolidated yesterday's gains and traded within a narrow range throughout Asia. The common currency briefly declined during the London session on headlines that the Bundesbank is still opposing giving the ESM a banking license and also on comments that it has not changed view on ECB buying government bonds. Nevertheless it recovered against the USD and trades off the lows. Relative strength winners are GBP and NZD and European equities trade within the -0.25% to 0.1% range.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold EUR 8.5 bln 6 month BOT bill. The average yield declined to 2.454% from 2.957% and cover was steady at 1.61. Italian and Spanish 10 year yields are declining, currently at 5.96% and 6.81% respectively, on story in Le Monde that the ECB is preparing for debt purchases on the secondary market while the EFSF would be used to buy debt in the primary market.

Other reports showed that Swiss KOF economic barometer exceeded expectations as it rose to 1.43 in July from previous 1.15 and Spanish unemployment rate ticked higher to 24.6% from 24.4% which is the highest print on record.

German CPI is being collected and results should be released at 2:00 pm. Market anticipates monthly inflation to rise 0.4% in July after -0.1% while the annual figure is seen steady at 1.7%.

The key event of today's session will be Q2 GDP that is due at 8:30 am ET. Analysts forecast a weaker 1.4% growth compared to 1.9% in Q1. Personal consumption is seen lower at 1.3% from previous 2.5%.

Final reading of University of Michigan consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am and market expects unrevised result at 72.

Premium subscribers who may have missed on the entries of Thursdays Premium Insights can take another look at the current market levels after the price moves in early Friday Asian trade. We issued 10 new trades, with 1 (USDJPY) remaining unfilled. 1 of 2 EURUSD longs are in progress (other unfilled by 9 pips). USDJPY short awaiting fill. USDCAD short unfilled (need 1.0120). 1 of 2 GBPUSD longs in progress, other unfilled. GBPJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, silver and oil are all in progress. DIRECT ACCESS to today's Premium Trades is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=670 Non subscribers can click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Prezident ECB posílá EUR/USD nad 1,2250

26.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Společná evropská měna (EUR) dnes posílila poté, co prezident Evropské centrální banky (ECB) Mario Draghi na globální investiční konferenci v Londýně řekl, že udělá cokoliv k záchraně eurozóny a euro prý není ohroženo. Měnový pár EUR/USD se vydal výrazně vzhůru a nyní se obchoduje na denních maximech nad úrovní 1,2250. Bližší informace v článku: Draghi slibuje udělat cokoli, aby zachránil eurozónu.

Německý GfK index spotřebitelské důvěry zaznamenal pro srpen růst na 5,9 z minulých 5,8. Firma GfK nicméně poznamenala, že ekonomický optimismus se snižuje podle toho jak se zvyšují obavy Němců z dalšího prohloubení krize. I tak ale subindex příjmových očekávání spolu s indexem ochoty nakupovat zůstaly na relativně dobrých hodnotách.

Zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/prezident-ecb-posila-eurusd-nad-12250.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

Risk Turned on by Draghi, German Data & Italy Auctions

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3453
July 26, 2012 07:19 ET :

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Dow futures are up 137 pts as risk is boosted by Draghi's comments; German GfK rose; Italian auction reach full take-up; Spanish 10 year yield declines. Market turns to durable goods orders; jobless claims and pending home sales. Todays Premium Insights will be due out before the US session.

The USD is weaker in the ongoing session across the board. European equities are gaining nearly 1% and the relative strength winners are AUD and NZD while JPY lags.

The common currency pushed higher on the ECB president's comments that he will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro. He also said that the euro was irreversible. Draghi said: "firewalls will work much better than in the past". He was participating in a panel discussion at global investment conference in London. EURUSD trades near session highs around 1.2280.

German GfK consumer confidence rose slightly in August to 5.9 from previous 5.8. GfK noted that economic optimism is fading as consumers are fearful that Germany will be drawn deeper into the crises. Nevertheless, income expectations and willingness to buy remained at good levels.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold EUR 2.5 bln of 2014 bond. The average yield rose to 4.86% from 4.71% but cover improved to 1.78 from 1.65. According to MNI calculations, EZ sovereign issuance so far this year totals EUR 524.8 bln, about 65% of total funding needs. Spanish 10 year yield declined to 7.19%.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with durable goods orders that are seen lower in June at 0.4% from previous 1.3%. Core goods are anticipated to rise only 0.1% from 0.7%. Jobless claims should be lower at 381K from previous 386K.

Pending home sales are due at 10:00 am and are expected to grow mere 0.6% in June after jumping 5.9% in May. Markets could also respond to treasury secretary Tim Geithner whose testimony before the senate banking committee also starts at 10:00 am.

A new set of Premium Insights are due later today. USDCAD hit all targets. 1 of the 2 EURUSD Monday shorts hit targets, with the other stopped out. US crude stopped out and and USDJPY remain in progress . Gold, GBPUSD and AUDUSD hit all targets, DIRECT ACCESS click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=669 Non subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ A new set of trades will be issued later today.

Patrik Urban

Euro ignoruje slabá data; HDP v Británii padá

25.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) dnes poklesl poté, co člen rady Evropské centrální banky Ewald Nowotny prohlásil, že vidí důvody pro to, aby Evropský stabilizační mechanismus ESM získal bankovní licenci (to by fondu umožnilo přístup k půjčkám ECB). Optimismus se ale poměrně rychle vytratil poté, co se ukázalo, že titulek byl vytržen z kontextu a Nowotny ve skutečnosti řekl, že vidí důvody pro i proti bankovní licenci.

Evropská data dnes opět zklamala, protože německý IFO - Index podnikatelského klimatu propadl pro červenec na 103,3 z 105,2.  Ani jeho komponenty nepřinesly důvod k optimismu: současná situace spadla na 111,6 z 113,9 a subindex očekávání se zhoršil na 95,6 z 97,2. Měnový pár EUR/USD dnes ale i tak úspěšně prorazil nad včerejší maxima a stále se obchoduje blízko maxim kolem 1,2145.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/euro-ignoruje-slaba-data-hdp-v-britanii-pada.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

GBP Hit by Deepening Recession, US New Home Sales Next

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3451
July 25, 2012 08:10 ET :

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Banking license for ESM; German IFO disappointed; UK GDP droppd to 3-yr lows, Spanish 10 year yield eased. Market turns to new home sales and later by the end of the session to RBNZ rate decision. Gold, Aussie & GBPUSD shorts hit all targets.

The greenback is lower in the ongoing session against most majors. European equities are gaining about 0.5% and the relative strength winners are AUD and NZD.

The USD gave up some ground after the ECB council member Ewald Nowotny said that he sees arguments for granting the ESM a banking license which would give it access to ECB lending. However, optimism quickly faded as the attention grabbing headline was taken out of context as he said that there are arguments for it and also against it.

European data disappointed again as German IFO business climate fell in July to 103.3 from 105.2, the current assessment declined to 111.6 from 113.9 and finally the expectations component slumped to 95.6 from 97.2. Despite the weak data, EURUSD was able to break above yesterday's high and continues to trade near session highs around 1.2145.

GBPUSD dropped from 1.5530 to 1.5470 after Q2 GDP came in significantly below expectations at -0.7% from previous -0.3% q/q which is the weakest quarterly growth since Q1 2009. The annual figure showed 0.8% contraction after falling 0.2% in Q1. Additional holidays due to queen jubilee and the wettest quarter on record probably had an impact but the statistics office could not quantify the effect yet. GBPUSD retraced a part of the loss and trades around the 1.55 handle.

Spanish 10 year yield initially pushed higher to 7.74% but declined later and trades around 7.51%.

Germany sold 30 year benchmark bond totaling EUR 2.322 bln vs. 3 bln target. The average yield dropped to 2.17% from previous 2.62% and cover rose to 1.5 from 1.1.

US data calendar is limited today to new home sales due at 10:00 am ET that are anticipated to rise marginally to 372K in June from 369K in May.
By the end of the session at 5:00 pm the RBNZ will announce its cash rate decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%.

Gold, GBPUSD and AUDUSD hit all targets, while 1 of the 2 EURUSD Monday shorts hit targets, with the other now filled. US crude and USDJPY remain in progress . 1 of 2 USDCAD in progress, the other stopped out. DIRECT ACCESS click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=669 Non subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ A new set of trades will be issued later today.

Patrik Urban

Evropské výrobní indexy PMI opět zklamaly

24.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Od začátku londýnské obchodní seance se obchoduje společná evropská měna (EUR) pod tlakem kvůli evropským výrobním indexům PMI (výrobní a služby), které byly všechny nejenom horší než se očekávalo, ale také vykázaly další pád v porovnání z červnem. Francouzské výrobní PMI se propadlo na 43,6 z 45,2, německé na 43,3 z 45,0 a celoevropské na 44,1 z 45,1. Sektor služeb v Německu a eurozóně vykázal kontrakci a velmi mírnou expanzi ve Francii (PMI bylo 50,2 z 47,9). Data potvrdila, že turbulentní finanční trhy negativně ovlivňují aktivitu v těchto sektorech a tedy i růstové vyhlídky ekonomiky eurozóny. Pro euro samozřejmě špatná zpráva. Bez hospodářského růstu se řešení dluhové krize stává dále obtížnějším.

Nejzávažnějším aspektem dnešních dat je pokles obou sektorů v Německu. Nové objednávky se propadly nejrychlejším tempem od června 2009 a objednávky pro export byly nejslabší od května 2009. Toto snížení se pravděpodobně projeví v růstu ekonomiky, která by mezikvartálně mohla spadnout zpátky do negativních čísel. Měnový pár EUR/USD se obchoduje blízko minim kolem 1,2095.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/evropske-vyrobni-indexy-pmi-opet-zklamaly.html

Patrik Urban

Both German PMIs Worsen, Spain Yields at 7.62%

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3448

July 24, 2012 07:46 ET :

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European manufacturing PMIs disappoint; Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI improve; UK BBA mortgage approvals fell; Spanish 10 year yield post their 7th straight daily increase to at new Eurozone-era highs of 7.62%. Gold & Aussie charts were added to Mondays Premium Insights. Shots in EUR, GBP and US crude are already in progress. and See more below.

Selling pressure, at least on commodity dollars, eased during the Asian session after Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5 in July from June's 48.2 which is 5 month high. AUDUSD retraced to 1.0304 before falling to current 1.0270.

Since London open, EUR traded with a weak underlying tone after all European July manufacturing PMI's not only came in below expectations but also showed fresh declines compared to June. French manufacturing PMI dropped to 43.6 from 45.2, German PMI declined to 43.3 from 45.0 and Eurozone PMI fell to 44.1 from 45.1. Service sector showed a contraction in Germany and Eurozone as a whole but expanded in France (PMI at 50.2 vs. June's 47.9).

Most worrying aspect of today's data is the decline in both sectors in Germany. New business fell at the fastest pace since 6/2009 and new export orders fell the most since 5/2009 which is likely to push q/q GDP growth back into negative territory. EURUSD trades near session lows around 1.2095.

UK data calendar was limited to BBA mortgage approvals that declined in June to 26.27K from previous 29.56K. GBPUSD continues to trade around the 1.55 handle.

Spanish 10 year yield hit a new record high at 7.62% and Italian counterpart trades and 6.46%. Spain sold 3 and 6 month bills totaling EUR 3.048 bln vs. 2-3 bln target. Average yields rose slightly but bid to cover improved.
The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with Canadian retail sales that are expected to rise in May 0.4% from previous -0.5%. Core sales are seen at 0.1% from -0.3%.

Markit Manufacturing PMI is due at 9:00 am and is anticipated to decline slightly to 52.1 in July from previous 52.5 while May house price index due at 10:00 am is expected to slow to 0.4% from 0.8%

Mondays PREMIUM INSIGHTS include EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, gold, silver and US crude and GBPUSD and more are found here as well charts on Daily AUDUSD and weekly gold. http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=669 Non subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

Začínáme s FOREXEM - Efektivní seminář online – webinář

http://www.fxstreet.cz/odborne-kurzy+zaciname-s-forexem-efektivni-seminar-online--webinar-21-08-2012.html 

 

Autor Patrik Urban  Datum 21.08.2012 17:30  Město On-line webinář 

Cena: 949 Kč

Obsazenost kurzu:

Nově vypsaný termín.

Nový exkluzivní online seminář. Získejte kompletní přehled o základech obchodování na Forexu a načerpejte forexové know-how v pohodlí domova. Zahrňte nás dotazy, na něž byste se na live semináři báli zeptat.

Téma webináře: Začínáme s Forexem
Chystáte se vydělávat na Forexu, chcete pochopit úplné základy obchodování, osvojit si nejpodstatnější pravidla úspěšného tradingu a poznat základní principy? Nechcete trávit čas studováním neověřených zdrojů a raději byste dali přednost formě interaktivního výkladu? Pak je tento kurz určen přímo vám. Jedná se o online kurz, jehož největší přidanou hodnotou jsou osobní dotazy, které můžete soukromě pokládat profesionálním traderům a využít tak možnost ujasnit si jakoukoliv pochybnost, na níž byste se veřejně obávali zeptat. Díky interakci se stovkami účastníků našich kurzů jsme zjistili, že právě tato možnost vzájemné konzultace s profesionály dělá z tradera úspěšného tradera.
Častým problémem klasických seminářů je, že účastníci váhají a nechtějí se ptát, aby před ostatními nevypadali hloupě. Často si myslí, že je jejich dotaz příliš jednoduchý, všem ostatním zcela jasný. V průběhu našeho webináře budou vaše otázky zaslány přímo administrátorovi, takže je ostatní uživatelé neuvidí. Konečně budete mít možnost se zeptat na všechno, co vás opravdu zajímá.
Cílem tohoto webináře je seznámit vás s FX trhem. Ukázat jeho výhody a nevýhody, možnosti i rizika. Dozvíte se, jak na tomto největším finančním trhu světa můžete začít vydělávat. Zodpovíme vám všechny základní otázky, ve kterých ještě nemáte zcela jasno. Získáte vhodné informace pro další vzdělávání, které vás dovede k vytvoření vlastní profitující strategii.
Proč tento webinář?

• obsah témat vám vysvětlíme srozumitelnou formou a zaměříme se na prakticky využitelné informace bez zbytečných teoretických pouček
• budete mít možnost se ptát na cokoliv, čemu nebudete rozumět a bez zbytečných obav
• budete mít kompletní přehled o základech obchodování na Forexu
• po absolvování webináře budete ihned schopni realizovat na tréninkovém (demo) účtu jednoduché a efektivní obchody

Nemusíte nikam cestovat ani váhat nad smysluplném investování svého času. Učit se můžete z pohodlí domova. Stačí se připojit z vašeho počítače na náš webinář a potom se dívat, poslouchat a budete-li chtít, také se otevřeně ptát.
Seminář povede známý profesionání FX trader s bohatými znalostmi z oblasti měnového trhu Patrik Urban, který má zkušenosti s obchodováním přímo na Wall Street v New Yorku.
Obsah webináře:
Základy

• Co je to Forex
• Historie
• Účastníci trhu
• Jak funguje
• FX principy a hlavní měnové páry
• Jak obchodovat a co je k tomu potřeba
• Brokeři - jak fungují, jak si vybrat správného a na co si dát pozor

Technická analýza

• Jak vypadá graf měnového páru, z čeho se skládá, základní druhy grafů
• Nejdůležitější formace na grafech a příklady
• Hladiny supportu a resistence (S/R úrovně)
• Trend a trendové kanály - praktické příklady
• Trendové indikátory a oscilátory
• Divergence
• Bollinger bands

Jak vydělávat na FX

• Money management – řízení peněz a rizika
• Obchodování v praxi
• Stop-loss – zastavení ztrát
• Profit target – cíle zisku
• Risk/Reward ratio RRR
• Psychologie obchodování
• Druhy obchodních příkazů
• Jak velký účet je potřeba k obchodování, mikro, mini a standardní loty

Webinář bude zahrnovat několik segmentů, které budou určené pouze pro zodpovídání vašich dotazů.
Jak se zúčastnit tohoto webináře?
1. K účasti vám postačí pouze základní PC, připojení k internetu, sluchátka nebo reproduktory.
2. Stačí si seminář objednat tlačítkem "OBJEDNAT", vyplnit formulář a vyčkat na zaslání instrukcí k bezhotovostní platbě.
3. Po uhrazení webináře vám minimálně 24 hodin před kurzem zašleme link/odkaz, kde budete mít přístup k online webináři.
Cena webináře včetně 20% DPH: 949 Kč
Termín a čas webináře: 21.08.2012 od 17:30 do 21:00 h
Doporučujeme se přihlásit co nejdříve, kapacita webináře je omezena na 25 míst.

Objednat

Týdenní videokomentář FXstreet.cz (23.7.2012)

23.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku. Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

Focus Turns to Madrid, IMF Stop Greece Aid

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3445
July 23, 2012 08:01 ET :

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Spain 10-y yield at 7.56% as focus turns to Spains sovereign debt, Doubts on IMG Greek aid, Australian PPI rose q/q; higher risk of Greece insolvency; Spanish and Italian yields soar; JPY ignores BOJ jawboning. A new set of Premium Insights will be issued today.

Risk trades came under heavy pressure right after the Asian open which sent USD and JPY broadly higher. The AUD ticked slightly higher after the Australian PPI rose 0.5% in Q2 from previous -0.3% q/q which was more than analysts expected. Soon these gains were reversed and AUDUSD fell lower, currently trading around 1.0285 from Friday's close at 1.0362.

More negative growth from Spain and another request for help from the Valencia raises the possibility that Spain will remain in recession until 2014. This has driven Spain 10 year bond yields to a new high of 7.56%
One factor that contributed to heightened risk aversion came from the IMF that signaled that it will not continue to provide financial aid to Greece, raising the risk of insolvency. MNI reports that the risk of Greece leaving the EZ is seen as manageable now but governments want to wait till the ESM is in operation. The German constitutional court will rule on the ESM on September 12th.

Spanish and Italian 10 year yields surged higher pushing the common currency to below the 1.21 handle. Yields rose to 7.56% and 6.40% during the London session as the flight to safety pushed the 2 year German Schatz yield to a -0.0836% record low. 5 year Spanish CDS hit a record high of 630 bps. There were no fundamental reports released today.

The market yet again ignored BOJ governor Shirakawa's comments that the MOF is monitoring the markets and is ready to take decisive steps. USDJPY fell to 77.94 and EURJPY plunged to 94.23.

The NY session will start at 8:30 am ET with Chicago FED national activity index followed by Eurozone consumer confidence at 10:00 am ET that is expected to decline marginally in July to -20 from previous -19.8.

Patrik Urban

Risk Appetite Eases, Chatter of more Fed Dovishness

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h3441

July 20, 2012 09:16 ET :

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Risk turning gradually off. Chatter making the rounds that doves at the Fed are trying to drum up support for further QE . This is likely to become a more recurring rumor as data goes from bad to wrse. German PPI fell; UK PSNB declined; World Bank president calls for restoration of stability; Eurogroup conference call; Spanish 10 year continues to rise. Canada CPI was on the soft side. More developments in latest Premium Insights below.

USD is gradually creeping higher as indices deepen in the red and EURUSD drops below 1.2180. Gld drops back below 1580, while oil tests 91.00.
Latest reports showed that German PPI fell 0.4% in June after printing -0.3% in May and UK public sector net borrowing declined in June to GBP 12.1 bln from previous GBP 16.1 bln. Market reaction to both reports was minimal and EUR with GBP traded in a narrow range. Later in the session, EURUSD came under pressure falling to 1.2225 while GBPUSD retraced to 1.5686.

In his first speech, the new president of the World Bank Jim Yong Kim called European policymakers to take necessary steps to restore stability as falling growth could erase the significant achievements in fight against poverty of the past decade.

Eurogroup conference call started today at 6 am ET and the approval of an agreement to lend Spain up to EUR 100 bln is widely expected. The exact details regarding the loan will be determined after bank stress test results are published in September. Meanwhile, the Spanish 10 year yield pushed to 7.11%.

Canadian CPI fell 0.4% in June, vs the expected 0.2%, for +1.5% y/y from 1.2% in May. Core annual CPI at 2.0% from 1.8% in May.

1 of the 3 remaining EURUSD shorts hit 1.2180 target, while the remaining EURJPY short hit its final target. Click here for direct access: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=667 Non Subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

Patrik Urban

EUR/USD zatím ignoruje španělský 7 % výnos

19.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je slabší proti všem hlavním měnám. Evropské akciové trhy si připisují téměř 1 % a relativně nejsilnější jsou komoditní dolary (AUD, NZD).

Španělská aukce dnes nedopadla nejlépe, protože Španělsko prodalo několik typů dluhopisů v celkové hodnotě 2,98 miliardy, tedy méně než cílová částka 3 miliardy. Průměrné výnosy se všechny zvýšily a poptávka měřená jako bid to cover se výrazně propadla. Na to reagoval 10letý výnos průrazem nad kritickou hranici 7 % a v současné době se obchoduje kolem 7,03 %. Na tyto zprávy reagoval měnový pár EUR/USD výprodejem až k 1,2262. Eurodolar ale brzy všechny ztráty smazal po informacích, že si fond EFSF rezervuje část financí na nákup španělských dluhopisů na primárním a sekundárním trhu. V současné době se EUR/USD obchoduje kolem 1,2288.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/eurusd-zatim-ignoruje-spanelsky-7--vynos.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

EURUSD Ignores Spanish 7% Yield

Spanish weak auction; EFSF to buy spanish bonds; UK retail sales below estimates; Swiss trade surplus lower. Existing home sales and Philly FED is next.

The greenback is trading weaker in the ongoing session against all majors. European equities are gaining nearly 1% and the relative strength winners are commodity dollars.

Spain had a weak auction today as it sold EUR 2.98 bln vs. 2-3 bln target. Average yields rose and cover declined substantially. The 10 year yield jumped through the 7% level and continues to trade near session highs around 7.03%. EURUSD lost over 40 points as it fell to 1.2265 when the result was announced but spiked higher later on reports that the EFSF will set aside funds to buy Spanish bonds on the primary as well as the secondary market. EURUSD continues to trade around the 1.23 handle.

UK retail sales were below expectations as they grew mere 0.1% in June from 1.5% in May. Core sales rose 0.3% from previous 1.0%. The wettest June since 1910 is partially blamed for the weak result. GBPUSD initially pushed lower to 1.5635 but quickly reversed and trades around 1.5685.

Other reports showed that Swiss trade surplus narrowed in June to CHF 2.25 bln from previous 2.52 bln and that Eurozone current account surplus rose to EUR 10.9 bln in May from EUR 5.5 bln in April.

Focus is still on German parliament that will vote on EU help for Spain and on Italian lower house that votes on the ESM approval. The fiscal compact has already been ratified by the lower house. Market attention will shift to tomorrow's Eurogroup teleconference as a final step to the approval of the Spanish aid program.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are expected to rise to 360K this week from previous 350K followed by existing home sales due at 10:00 am that are seen higher in June at 4.64M from previous 4.55M.

Philly FED index that is also due at 10:00 am is anticipated to improve to -7.9 in July after plunging to -16.6 in June.

Patrik Urban

Forex: Týdenní videokomentář - FXstreet

http://www.fxstreet.cz/forex-tydenni-videokomentar-fxstreet.html

16.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu (forex) od profesionálního tradera a analytika z www.fxstreet.cz.



Poznámka: Po spuštění videa si v jeho nastavení můžete změnit kvalitu na HD nebo zvětšit přehrávání přes celou obrazovku. Video můžete sledovat také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.

Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz

FXSTREET exkluzivní webinář !!!

Úvod do FOREXu a základy obchodování. Předpokládaný konec webináře 21:00.

FXSTREET exkluzivní webinář !!!

Datum 2012-07-18 17:30

Lektor Patrik Urban, Ondřej Hartman

Adresa On-line webinář

GBP Weaker On Hints Of A Rate Cut

MPC discussed rate cut; UK QE 7-2 split; UK labor market improved; Swiss ZEW improved and Eurozone construction output recovered. Market turns to building permits; housing starts, 2^nd Bernanke's testimony and BOC policy report.

The greenback is stronger against most majors in the ongoing session after a brief consolidation throughout Asia. Choppy trading that we witnessed yesterday after Bernanke's testimony therefore continues. It seems that markets will have to wait until the next FOMC meeting on August 1^st or possibly even to the Jackson Hole symposium for more details on the possibility of an additional easing in the US.

GBPUSD declined after the MPC minutes from the July 5^th meeting showed that the MPC discussed cutting the bank rate and that the case for a cut could be reviewed. The QE voting showed a 7-2 split as members Spencer Dale and Ben Broadbent voted against additional easing. Market expected only one dissenter.

The latest labor market data from the UK were slightly better then anticipated as jobless claims declined to 6.1K in June from previous 6.9K and the claimant count rate remained steady at 4.9%. ILO unemployment rate declined in May to 8.1% from April's 8.2%. However, these figures could be skewed by extra hiring for the Olympic games. GBPUSD fell from session high 1.5662 to 1.5580 but recovered to 1.5605.

Swiss ZEW economic expectations for July showed a slight improvement to -42.5 from June's -43.4 and Eurozone construction output recovered 0.1% in May from previous -3.7%.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with building permits that are expected to decline marginally in June to 0.77M from 0.78M while housing starts are seen higher at 0.74M from previous 0.71M.

FED chairman Bernanke starts his second testimony at 10:00 am and FED's Beige Book is due at 2:00 pm. The text of his speech will be the same but the market could react to the Q&A session that follows.

Canadian reports include BOC monetary policy report at 10:30 am followed by BOC press conference at 11:15 am.

Zápis z jednání BoE poslal GBP/USD níže

18.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Americký dolar (USD) je v současné seanci silnější po krátké konsolidaci v průběhu asijského obchodování. Neklidné a volatilní obchodování, které jsme viděli včera po projevu šéfa FEDu Bena Bernankeho tedy pokračuje. Bernanke dle očekávání nenabídl žádné další informace týkající se možnosti kvantitativního uvolňování (QE), pouze zopakoval, že FED je připraven podpořit ekonomiku pokud dojde k dalšímu zhoršení a pokud to bude situace vyžadovat. Trhy si tedy budou muset počkat na detaily možného uvolňování na další zasedání FOMC, které proběhne 1. srpna 2012, popřípadě až do každoročního sympozia v Jackson Hole.

Měnový pár GBP/USD poklesl poté, co zápis z posledního jednání BoE - Bank of England (komise MPC) z 5. července ukázal, že komise uvažovala o možnosti snížit základní úrokovou sazbu a že tato možnost bude znovu projednána. Hlasování o kvantitativním uvolňování (QE) bylo 7-2, protože členové Spencer Dale a Ben Broadbent hlasovali proti dalšímu navýšení programu pro nákup aktiv. To bylo překvapující, protože se všeobecně očekával pouze jediný odpůrce.

zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/zapis-z-jednani-boe-poslal-gbpusd-nize.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

Trhy čekají na Bernankeho projev

17.07.2012  Autor: Patrik Urban  Sekce: Krátké zprávy   Tisk

Finanční trhy se drží uvnitř relativně úzkých pásem před důležitým projevem šéfa FEDu Bernankeho. Evropské akciové trhy se pohybují mezi -0,3 % až 0,4 %.

Data z asijské seance ukázala, že maloobchodní inflace na Novém Zélandu se propadla více, než analytici očekávali a to na hodnotu 1,0 % z minulého 1,6 %. Zápis z posledního zasedání centrální banky Austrálie (RBA) ukázal, že RBA očekává pokračující nízkou inflaci a že považuje současnou míru úrokových sazeb za vhodnou a to zvlášť kvůli nižšímu globálnímu růstu. AUD a NZD posilnily, ale zatím nebyly schopny prorazit hladinu rezistance na 1,03 a 0,80.


zbytek zde:
http://www.fxstreet.cz/trhy-cekaji-na-bernankeho-projev.html

Patrik Urban
Autor působí ve forex společnosti www.fxstreet.cz

Awaiting Bernanke & BoC

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=3433
July 17, 2012 07:50 ET :

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Markets are trading within relatively narrow ranges ahead of Bernanke's testimony. Also must watch the Bank of Canadas interest rate announcement and any notable shift in rhetoric with regards to its outlook. European equities remained within -0.3% to 0.4% range. Latest developments in latest Premium Insights on EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD gold, oil and silver are found below.
Data during the Asian session showed that New Zealand CPI was below expectations at 1.0% from 1.6% y/y which is the lowest since 1999. AUD meeting minutes noted low inflation, rates being at an appropriate level and slower global growth. Both AUD and NZD moved higher but so far failed to break through 1.03 and 0.80 resistance levels.

GBPUSD sold off after UK CPI eased in June to 2.4% from 2.8% which is the lowest level since 11/2009. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.1% from 2.2%. GBPUSD weakened to 1.5609 while EURGBP move higher to 0.7874.
European data disappointed again as German ZEW economic sentiment declined further in July to -19.6 from previous -16.9 and the Eurozone counterpart fell to -22.3 from -20.1. EURUSD struggles at the 1.23 level.

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with June CPI that is expected to ease to 1.6% from previous 1.7% while the core figure is seen at 2.2% from 2.3% on annual basis. Monthly CPI is seen flat after previous -0.3% and core is anticipated steady at 0.2%.

The much anticipated semi-annual FED chairman Bernanke's testimony before the banking committee in Washington DC starts at 10:00 am. Markets are waiting for a hint of an additional stimulus as data continues to deteriorate. The last time markets were bracing for some QE hints from Bernanke, they were disappointed. And so if the Fed Chairman once again refrains from indicating towards the prospects of further QE while Operation Twist is in play, then the US dollar may well get a fresh boost.

The BOC will announce its overnight rate decision at 9:00 am and the majority of analysts see rates unchanged at 1%. Given the ongoing uncertainty, hawkish bias is likely to be gradually removed.

US crude hit final 88.80 target, AUDUSD stopped out, both EURUSD & 1 EURJPY in progress. Long cable & short EURJPY hit all targets. Long gold nearing 1600 target. Silver awaits. For direct access to these Premium Insights, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=665 Non Subscribers can please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/

-Patrik Urban