http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2850
October 31, 2011 07:35 ET :
BOJ governor's shocking words sends JPY higher; German retail sales rose but less than anticipated; Eurozone CPI higher and unemployment rate at 15 months high. Market turns to Canadian GDP and US Chicago PMI.
USD is the relative strength winner today as higher risk aversion combined with BOJ intervention sends the greenback higher across the board. European equity indices are in the red, losing about 1%.
After USDJPY hit another historical low at 75.35 earlier during the Asian session, Japanese officials decided to unilaterally intervene in the market and weaken the JPY. USDJPY jumped nearly 400 points from 75.55 to 79.52 within few hours. In subsequent press conference BOJ governor Shirakawa shocked the market when he said that JPY rise has merits for the Japanese economy. These surprising words erased nearly 200 points off the intervention effect as USDJPY plunged back to 77.80. If the Japanese ministry of finance hopes to have a lasting impact on the JPY rate, it will have to bring USDJPY back towards to highs swiftly otherwise we are likely to see pre-intervention levels within few sessions.
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German retail sales grew 0.4% in September from -2.7% in August which was still below analysts expectations of +1.1%. More importantly, annual figure dropped to 0.3% from 2.5%.
October Eurozone CPI inched up to 3.0% from 2.9% on annual basis and September unemployment rate rose to 10.2% from August 10.1% which is the highest rate in over a year. To make it worse, even the August figure was revised higher from an initial estimate of 10.0%.
The ECB is buying Italian bonds again in attempts to push the 10 year yield lower. It has been unsuccessful so far as the bond continues to yield over 6%, currently 6.08% reigniting fears that Italy could be the next victim of Eurozone's crisis. Even the expanded EFSF would not be able to provide significant financial aid, should Italy need it. Meanwhile in Italy, the consumer price level increased to 3.8% in October from previous 3.6%.
In the UK, Mortgage approvals declined to 51k in September from 52.3K in August and net consumer credit expanded GBP 0.6bln from GBP 0.5 bln
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian August GDP that is expected at 0.2% from 0.3% (2.2% from 2.3% y/y). Higher retail sales and relatively strong labor market could lead to a positive surprise and in that case the CAD could stay below parity for the next few weeks to come.
Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am ET and is seen slightly lower at 59 in October from 60.4 in September and October Dallas manufacturing activity is anticipated better at -5 from -14.4.
Patrik Urban
Monday, October 31, 2011
Friday, October 28, 2011
Euro Steadies, US Spending, Core PCE Price Index Next
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2844
October 28, 2011 07:36 ET :
French consumer spending declines; Swiss KOF drops; talks regarding Chinese investment into EFSF continue. Market turns to US core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), personal spending and income and final UoM consumer confidence. Key daily & weekly euro charts are included in the latest Premium Intermarket Insights explain why and where we're long EURUSD. None of the See below.
Markets are consolidating yesterday's massive moves with a slight USD positive tone. However, market optimism should persist so risk on trend should resume. Major European equity indices are in the negative territory but only by about 0.2%.
French consumer spending declined in September -0.5% from +0.2% which is -1.3% on annual basis. The decline is blamed on fall in sales of clothes and energy consumption. Consumer spending is the main contributor to GDP in the second largest Eurozone economy so markets will scrutinize deteriorating data in light of last week's warning by Moody's that France could lose its AAA rating in the next three months. French downgrade would, without a doubt, give a severe blow to Eurozone's effort to stabilize markets and end the debt crisis.
Swiss KOF Economic leading indicator continued to worsen in October as it printed 0.8 from previous 1.21. This is the worst result since August 2009 and sixth back to back decline which points to a weaker growth in the months ahead. Further deterioration could reignite speculation that the SNB will move the EURCHF floor from 1.20 higher, perhaps to 1.30.
All 7 trades remain in progress in the latest Intermarket Insights (EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, gold and silver). For direct access ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=534 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
News coming out of China proved that China is contemplating EFSF investment but it is not a done deal yet. Chinese Vice finance minister Zhu said that details are still needed before deciding but confirmed continued talks.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with core PCE price index that is seen slightly higher at 1.7% from 1.6% y/y. September personal income and spending are due at the same time. Income is expected to increase 0.3% after -0.1% contraction in August and Spending is seen higher at 0.6% from 0.2%.
9:55 am will bring revised University of Michigan consumer confidence that is anticipated slightly higher at 58 from 57.5.
Patrik Urban
October 28, 2011 07:36 ET :
French consumer spending declines; Swiss KOF drops; talks regarding Chinese investment into EFSF continue. Market turns to US core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), personal spending and income and final UoM consumer confidence. Key daily & weekly euro charts are included in the latest Premium Intermarket Insights explain why and where we're long EURUSD. None of the See below.
Markets are consolidating yesterday's massive moves with a slight USD positive tone. However, market optimism should persist so risk on trend should resume. Major European equity indices are in the negative territory but only by about 0.2%.
French consumer spending declined in September -0.5% from +0.2% which is -1.3% on annual basis. The decline is blamed on fall in sales of clothes and energy consumption. Consumer spending is the main contributor to GDP in the second largest Eurozone economy so markets will scrutinize deteriorating data in light of last week's warning by Moody's that France could lose its AAA rating in the next three months. French downgrade would, without a doubt, give a severe blow to Eurozone's effort to stabilize markets and end the debt crisis.
Swiss KOF Economic leading indicator continued to worsen in October as it printed 0.8 from previous 1.21. This is the worst result since August 2009 and sixth back to back decline which points to a weaker growth in the months ahead. Further deterioration could reignite speculation that the SNB will move the EURCHF floor from 1.20 higher, perhaps to 1.30.
All 7 trades remain in progress in the latest Intermarket Insights (EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, gold and silver). For direct access ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=534 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
News coming out of China proved that China is contemplating EFSF investment but it is not a done deal yet. Chinese Vice finance minister Zhu said that details are still needed before deciding but confirmed continued talks.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with core PCE price index that is seen slightly higher at 1.7% from 1.6% y/y. September personal income and spending are due at the same time. Income is expected to increase 0.3% after -0.1% contraction in August and Spending is seen higher at 0.6% from 0.2%.
9:55 am will bring revised University of Michigan consumer confidence that is anticipated slightly higher at 58 from 57.5.
Patrik Urban
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Turning to US Q3 GDP
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2840
October 27, 2011 08:00 ET :
Signs that China could participate in EFSF; German CPI could surprise on the upside; UK CBI sales better than anticipated. Market turns to Q3 GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales.
Riskier assets continue to push higher on the back of yesterday's EU summit that produced some concrete steps towards the resolution of the EU debt crisis and thus satisfied market's expectations. European equity indices are in positive territory and the greenback continues to decline across the board.
Also supporting the sentiment were comments by the Chinese foreign minister who said that China is willing to help protecting financial stability and global growth. Such comments increase the probability that French president Sarkozy who will talk with Chinese leader Hu Jintao today, will be successful in convincing China to participate in the EFSF.
German preliminary October CPI is seen unchanged from last month at 0.1% which translates to 2.5% on annual basis. However, early indications from states that have already published their results point to a possibility of a higher print as Saxony and Hesse regions reported CPI at three year highs. The cost of energy and food is blamed in these regions for the increase. Overall German inflation is due later today.
UK CBI reported sales in October printed -11% from -15% in September. The trend points to a further weakness but the GBP benefited slightly as the result was above expectations of -15%.
Latest PREMIUM TRADES include EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, ES & gold For DIRECT ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=533 NONsubcribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The eagerly awaited Q3 GDP data is due at 8:30 am ET. The American economy is expected to grow 2.4% from previous 1.3%. In case of a significant disappointment, the existing market optimism could be reversed and risk aversion could come back.
Jobless claims that are due at the same time are seen at 400K from previous 403K.
Pending home sales due at 10:00 am ET are anticipated higher at 0.2% in September from -1.2% in August.
Patrik Urban
October 27, 2011 08:00 ET :
Signs that China could participate in EFSF; German CPI could surprise on the upside; UK CBI sales better than anticipated. Market turns to Q3 GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales.
Riskier assets continue to push higher on the back of yesterday's EU summit that produced some concrete steps towards the resolution of the EU debt crisis and thus satisfied market's expectations. European equity indices are in positive territory and the greenback continues to decline across the board.
Also supporting the sentiment were comments by the Chinese foreign minister who said that China is willing to help protecting financial stability and global growth. Such comments increase the probability that French president Sarkozy who will talk with Chinese leader Hu Jintao today, will be successful in convincing China to participate in the EFSF.
German preliminary October CPI is seen unchanged from last month at 0.1% which translates to 2.5% on annual basis. However, early indications from states that have already published their results point to a possibility of a higher print as Saxony and Hesse regions reported CPI at three year highs. The cost of energy and food is blamed in these regions for the increase. Overall German inflation is due later today.
UK CBI reported sales in October printed -11% from -15% in September. The trend points to a further weakness but the GBP benefited slightly as the result was above expectations of -15%.
Latest PREMIUM TRADES include EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, ES & gold For DIRECT ACCESS, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=533 NONsubcribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The eagerly awaited Q3 GDP data is due at 8:30 am ET. The American economy is expected to grow 2.4% from previous 1.3%. In case of a significant disappointment, the existing market optimism could be reversed and risk aversion could come back.
Jobless claims that are due at the same time are seen at 400K from previous 403K.
Pending home sales due at 10:00 am ET are anticipated higher at 0.2% in September from -1.2% in August.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Awaiting Bundestag, EU Summit, US Home Sales
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2835
October 26, 2011 07:36 ET :
Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET, USDJPY at new lows; Japan ready to buy EFSF bonds; UK CBI orders dropped. Market turns to durable goods orders, new home sales and Canadian monetary policy report. See our latest Premium trades below.
EURUSD continues to trade in the recent 3950-3880 range ahead of the EU economic summit. The extent of private sector involvement and leveraging the EFSF are two key areas that will impact the market sentiment the most.
German parliament votes today on leveraging the EFSF. While passing is widely expected, if it is rejected/decision delayed, it could send the common currency lower as the EU summit would not be able to conclude this important issue. The Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET. Given the complexity of the issues, the press conference can be expected to take place late NY afternoon.
SEE OUR LATEST PREMIUM TRADES, including our shorts in AUDUSD & AUDCAD, which are few pips away from hitting all targets. DIRECT ACCESS found http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=531 To become a subscriber: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
USDJPY reached a new historical low today at 75.70. Japanese finance minister Jun Azumi said that he "will not rule out any steps on fx" and stated that it would be difficult to apply measures similar to those used by the SNB. This is the first time that he confirmed that such measures are even under a consideration. As jawboning has proved to be ineffective in tempering the JPY rise, an actual intervention or other unconventional steps might be considered. Minister Azumi also said that Japan is ready to buy EFSF bonds if the Eurozone presents a credible plan to solve the debt crisis.
UK CBI industrial orders dropped to -18 in October from previous -9 which is the largest drop since October 2010 and below expectations of -7. Deteriorating conditions and ongoing financial crisis in Europe is blamed. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.5976 after reaching 1.6040 earlier during the session.
The NY session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with September durable goods orders that are seen lower at -0.7% from previous -0.1%. However, core orders are expected higher at 0.5% from -0.1% in August.
US New home sales are due at 10:00 am and are anticipated higher in September at 302K from 295K.
CAD traders should watch for BOC Monetary policy report due at 10:30 am and BOC press conference that starts at 11:15 am.
At 16:00 the RBNZ will announce their rate decision. Rates are widely seen unchanged at 2.5%.
Patrik Urban
October 26, 2011 07:36 ET :
Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET, USDJPY at new lows; Japan ready to buy EFSF bonds; UK CBI orders dropped. Market turns to durable goods orders, new home sales and Canadian monetary policy report. See our latest Premium trades below.
EURUSD continues to trade in the recent 3950-3880 range ahead of the EU economic summit. The extent of private sector involvement and leveraging the EFSF are two key areas that will impact the market sentiment the most.
German parliament votes today on leveraging the EFSF. While passing is widely expected, if it is rejected/decision delayed, it could send the common currency lower as the EU summit would not be able to conclude this important issue. The Eurozone summit begins at 1:15 pm ET. Given the complexity of the issues, the press conference can be expected to take place late NY afternoon.
SEE OUR LATEST PREMIUM TRADES, including our shorts in AUDUSD & AUDCAD, which are few pips away from hitting all targets. DIRECT ACCESS found http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=531 To become a subscriber: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
USDJPY reached a new historical low today at 75.70. Japanese finance minister Jun Azumi said that he "will not rule out any steps on fx" and stated that it would be difficult to apply measures similar to those used by the SNB. This is the first time that he confirmed that such measures are even under a consideration. As jawboning has proved to be ineffective in tempering the JPY rise, an actual intervention or other unconventional steps might be considered. Minister Azumi also said that Japan is ready to buy EFSF bonds if the Eurozone presents a credible plan to solve the debt crisis.
UK CBI industrial orders dropped to -18 in October from previous -9 which is the largest drop since October 2010 and below expectations of -7. Deteriorating conditions and ongoing financial crisis in Europe is blamed. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.5976 after reaching 1.6040 earlier during the session.
The NY session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with September durable goods orders that are seen lower at -0.7% from previous -0.1%. However, core orders are expected higher at 0.5% from -0.1% in August.
US New home sales are due at 10:00 am and are anticipated higher in September at 302K from 295K.
CAD traders should watch for BOC Monetary policy report due at 10:30 am and BOC press conference that starts at 11:15 am.
At 16:00 the RBNZ will announce their rate decision. Rates are widely seen unchanged at 2.5%.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
German Consumer Confidence Increased; BOC Is Next
German consumer confidence rose; UK current account deficit narrowed; Italian government may fall. Focus turns to Canadian retail sales, BOC rate statement and US consumer confidence, manufacturing data.
Despite the disappointing data, November GfK German consumer confidence increased to 5.3 from 5.2. German labor market that remains strong and rising income expectations contributed to the increase. However, the economic expectations index fell to -6.2 from 4.8.
In the UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -2 bln in Q2 from GBP -4.1 bln in Q1 which is the best print since Q1 2008. BOE Governor King said today that inflation is peaking and that QE was executed because there was a risk that the inflation would fall below BOE target level. GBP has been relatively strong over the past few sessions pushing GBPUSD to over 1.6 today.
Italian political situation became more complex as one of PM Berlusconi's ministers warned that the government could fall over economic reforms demanded by the EU. PM Berlusconi is supposed to present a growth and debt reduction plan on Wednesday but yesterday's Italian government meeting failed to produce any agreements. Falling government in the fourth largest European economy would surely reverse the current risk on environment.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian retail sales that are expected to rise to 0.4% in August from -0.6% in July. Core is seen at 0.4% from a previous unchanged reading. Usually, the market experiences a considerable volatility after retail sales data is released. Today, the impact may be weaker as traders will be waiting for the BOC rate announcement and statement at 9:00 am ET. BOC is seen keeping rates unchanged at 1% despite the 0.5% core CPI increase last Friday.
9:00 am will also bring S&P Case-Shiller index that is anticipated to slow the rate of decline in August to -3.6% from -4.1% on annual basis.
Consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am should tick up slightly to 46.1 from 45.4 in October and Richmond manufacturing index is expected to print +2 from -6.
Patrik Urban
Despite the disappointing data, November GfK German consumer confidence increased to 5.3 from 5.2. German labor market that remains strong and rising income expectations contributed to the increase. However, the economic expectations index fell to -6.2 from 4.8.
In the UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -2 bln in Q2 from GBP -4.1 bln in Q1 which is the best print since Q1 2008. BOE Governor King said today that inflation is peaking and that QE was executed because there was a risk that the inflation would fall below BOE target level. GBP has been relatively strong over the past few sessions pushing GBPUSD to over 1.6 today.
Italian political situation became more complex as one of PM Berlusconi's ministers warned that the government could fall over economic reforms demanded by the EU. PM Berlusconi is supposed to present a growth and debt reduction plan on Wednesday but yesterday's Italian government meeting failed to produce any agreements. Falling government in the fourth largest European economy would surely reverse the current risk on environment.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian retail sales that are expected to rise to 0.4% in August from -0.6% in July. Core is seen at 0.4% from a previous unchanged reading. Usually, the market experiences a considerable volatility after retail sales data is released. Today, the impact may be weaker as traders will be waiting for the BOC rate announcement and statement at 9:00 am ET. BOC is seen keeping rates unchanged at 1% despite the 0.5% core CPI increase last Friday.
9:00 am will also bring S&P Case-Shiller index that is anticipated to slow the rate of decline in August to -3.6% from -4.1% on annual basis.
Consumer confidence that is due at 10:00 am should tick up slightly to 46.1 from 45.4 in October and Richmond manufacturing index is expected to print +2 from -6.
Patrik Urban
Monday, October 24, 2011
Euro Slips on German & Ezone Manuf Contraction
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2826
October 24, 2011 07:20 ET :
Focus on Wednesday's EU summit; German manufacturing sector contracts, but service sector grew; Eurozone PMI declined further and industrial orders rose. NY session can see higher volatility during two FOMC member William Dudley speeches. The German contraction that Ashraf is at its early stages see the chart on the left here: bit.ly/p9MIMn For the latest on Premium Trades, see below. Ashraf will be on AlArabiya at 12:30 GMT (16:30 Dubai time)
Another European meeting ended with no concrete conclusion yesterday. The next EU summit which is on Wednesday is in focus now and is likely to be a key event this week. Risk on sentiment may continue to support equities and punish the USD on hopes that EU leaders are closer to a debt crisis solution. However, as markets expect the Eurozone to announce concrete steps with significant provisions, risk aversion can return with a vengeance should the Wednesday's summit come to a close with no specific results.
Data from Germany was mixed today as German manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years. Manufacturing PMI printed 48.9 in October from previous 50.3. However, German services sector expanded as services PMI increased to 52.1 from 49.7.
In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI has contracted for three months in a row as it printed 47.3 from 48.5 and services PMI declined to 47.2 from 48.8 deepening fears of a recession. New orders sub component has also been declining for three months which points to an additional weakness in the months ahead. EURUSD fell on the news from 1.3900 to 1.3843. Session low is 1.3822.
PREMIUM TRADES Fridays Premium long in gold hit most targets, silver in progress. USDCAD Premium short hit all limits. The EURUSD short in the Premium dual trade hit all targets, while the long remains unfilled. Long EURJPY hit all targets while the short is 7 pips away from completing all targets. Our oil long partly hit the limits before being stopped out. Gold and silver are in progress, while ES Premium trade is stopped out. Click here for DIRECT ACCESS http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527 Click here for a 1-week trial http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01 MONDAYs PREMIUM TRADES will be released at approx. 16:00 GMT
Eurozone industrial orders grew solid 1.9% in August after declining -1.6% in July. However, on annual basis orders grew only 6.2% from previous 8.9%.
There is no data due during the US session today. Market volatility could increase at 8:45 am ET and also at 1:00 pm ET when NY Fed president and FOMC member William Dudley delivers speeches and answers audience questions in New York.
Patrik Urban
October 24, 2011 07:20 ET :
Focus on Wednesday's EU summit; German manufacturing sector contracts, but service sector grew; Eurozone PMI declined further and industrial orders rose. NY session can see higher volatility during two FOMC member William Dudley speeches. The German contraction that Ashraf is at its early stages see the chart on the left here: bit.ly/p9MIMn For the latest on Premium Trades, see below. Ashraf will be on AlArabiya at 12:30 GMT (16:30 Dubai time)
Another European meeting ended with no concrete conclusion yesterday. The next EU summit which is on Wednesday is in focus now and is likely to be a key event this week. Risk on sentiment may continue to support equities and punish the USD on hopes that EU leaders are closer to a debt crisis solution. However, as markets expect the Eurozone to announce concrete steps with significant provisions, risk aversion can return with a vengeance should the Wednesday's summit come to a close with no specific results.
Data from Germany was mixed today as German manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years. Manufacturing PMI printed 48.9 in October from previous 50.3. However, German services sector expanded as services PMI increased to 52.1 from 49.7.
In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI has contracted for three months in a row as it printed 47.3 from 48.5 and services PMI declined to 47.2 from 48.8 deepening fears of a recession. New orders sub component has also been declining for three months which points to an additional weakness in the months ahead. EURUSD fell on the news from 1.3900 to 1.3843. Session low is 1.3822.
PREMIUM TRADES Fridays Premium long in gold hit most targets, silver in progress. USDCAD Premium short hit all limits. The EURUSD short in the Premium dual trade hit all targets, while the long remains unfilled. Long EURJPY hit all targets while the short is 7 pips away from completing all targets. Our oil long partly hit the limits before being stopped out. Gold and silver are in progress, while ES Premium trade is stopped out. Click here for DIRECT ACCESS http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527 Click here for a 1-week trial http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01 MONDAYs PREMIUM TRADES will be released at approx. 16:00 GMT
Eurozone industrial orders grew solid 1.9% in August after declining -1.6% in July. However, on annual basis orders grew only 6.2% from previous 8.9%.
There is no data due during the US session today. Market volatility could increase at 8:45 am ET and also at 1:00 pm ET when NY Fed president and FOMC member William Dudley delivers speeches and answers audience questions in New York.
Patrik Urban
Friday, October 21, 2011
2nd EU Summit Considered, New Lows for USDJPY
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2820
October 21, 2011 09:17 ET :
Second summit on 10/26 announced; combining EFSF with ESM could provide EUR 940 bln in lending; German Ifo declines; UK public borrowing rises; Canadian CPI mixed. Market turns to three FOMC members speeches. USDJPY Hits new low at 75.82. NEW Premium Trades are up.
The USD is little changed since London traders got to their desks. The major currencies are likely to stay range bound as market players are unlikely to want to hold risk positions ahead of this Sunday EU summit. The complexity of the situation that Eurozone has to deal with is evident from the latest announcement that a second EU summit will take place on Wednesday 10/26.
Bloomberg reported that a plan to combine EFSF and the ESM to provide EUR 940 bln in funding is being considered and that France could lose its top rating given by S&P should the government borrowing rise due to ballooning deficit and bank recapitalization costs.
LATEST NEW PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS are here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527
While 940 bln Euros is a significant amount, market participants could be unimpressed as rumors of 2 trillion Euros considered caused the Euro to spike higher just a few days ago.
On the data front, German Ifo Business Climate fell to 106.4 in October from previous 107.4 and the Expectations subindex fell to 97 from 97.1. In the UK, Public sector borrowing increased in September to GBP 11.4 bln from GBP 10.9 bln.
Canadian CPI declined to 0.2% in September from 0.3% in August. However, core CPI ticked up to 0.5 from 0.4%. On annual basis CPI reached 3.2%.
There is no data due during the NY session. However, market volatility could increase during a three speeches that will be delivered today.
At 1:00 pm FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota delivers speech on monetary policy in Minneapolis. Q&A session is expected which often causes stronger market reactions than a prepared speech.
At 1:20 pm FOMC member and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks about the economy in Dallas.
At 3:00 pm FOMC member and Fed's Governor Janet Yellen delivers a speech in Denver about the outlook for the US economy and economic policy.
Patrik Urban
October 21, 2011 09:17 ET :
Second summit on 10/26 announced; combining EFSF with ESM could provide EUR 940 bln in lending; German Ifo declines; UK public borrowing rises; Canadian CPI mixed. Market turns to three FOMC members speeches. USDJPY Hits new low at 75.82. NEW Premium Trades are up.
The USD is little changed since London traders got to their desks. The major currencies are likely to stay range bound as market players are unlikely to want to hold risk positions ahead of this Sunday EU summit. The complexity of the situation that Eurozone has to deal with is evident from the latest announcement that a second EU summit will take place on Wednesday 10/26.
Bloomberg reported that a plan to combine EFSF and the ESM to provide EUR 940 bln in funding is being considered and that France could lose its top rating given by S&P should the government borrowing rise due to ballooning deficit and bank recapitalization costs.
LATEST NEW PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS are here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=527
While 940 bln Euros is a significant amount, market participants could be unimpressed as rumors of 2 trillion Euros considered caused the Euro to spike higher just a few days ago.
On the data front, German Ifo Business Climate fell to 106.4 in October from previous 107.4 and the Expectations subindex fell to 97 from 97.1. In the UK, Public sector borrowing increased in September to GBP 11.4 bln from GBP 10.9 bln.
Canadian CPI declined to 0.2% in September from 0.3% in August. However, core CPI ticked up to 0.5 from 0.4%. On annual basis CPI reached 3.2%.
There is no data due during the NY session. However, market volatility could increase during a three speeches that will be delivered today.
At 1:00 pm FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota delivers speech on monetary policy in Minneapolis. Q&A session is expected which often causes stronger market reactions than a prepared speech.
At 1:20 pm FOMC member and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks about the economy in Dallas.
At 3:00 pm FOMC member and Fed's Governor Janet Yellen delivers a speech in Denver about the outlook for the US economy and economic policy.
Patrik Urban
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Qaddafi Reportedly Captured, Euro Boosted by EFSF Guidelines
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2815
October 20, 2011 07:25 ET :
Wire reports indicate Mouammar Qaddafi was captured. US authorities have yet to confirm the news. Euro hits 1.3830s on stronger EFSF guidelines; German PPI higher; UK retail sales rose; Swiss ZEW improved for the first time in six months. Jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing is next. All 3 of EURUSD Premium trades hit targets, making 6 out of 9. Today's Premium Trades are due at the US open.
Euro moved sharply higher today from around 1.3672 to 1.3842 on EFSF guidelines that will be presented to German lawmakers. DJ reports that these guidelines are based on the agreement reached on July 21st and allow for limited leverage through banks; limit EFSF bonds purchase to 50% of total issue and restricts market intervention to public sector debt.
German PPI rose 0.3% in September after contracting -0.3% in August. This translates to annual PPI 5.5%, unchanged from last reading. Prices have increased mainly due to rising energy and food costs.
In the UK, retail sales rose unexpectedly 0.6% in September from -0.4% in August, which is 0.6% annual growth. However, this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained due to increasing unemployment, sluggish wage growth and high inflation. GBPUSD trades around 1.58, about 90 points above the pre-announcement level.
Swiss ZEW economic expectation index was declining for the past six months. In October it slowed its rate of decline when it printed -54.4 from previous -75.7.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower at 401K from previous 404K and Canadian wholesale sales that are expected slightly lower in August at 0.4% from 0.8%.
10:00 am ET will bring September existing home sales anticipated to decline to 4.94M from 5.03M and Philly Fed manufacturing that is expected to lower its rate of decline to -9 in October from -17.5 in September. On Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index was below expectations.
Consumer confidence in Eurozone also due at 10:00 am is expected to worsen in October to -20 from previous -19.
Patrik Urban
October 20, 2011 07:25 ET :
Wire reports indicate Mouammar Qaddafi was captured. US authorities have yet to confirm the news. Euro hits 1.3830s on stronger EFSF guidelines; German PPI higher; UK retail sales rose; Swiss ZEW improved for the first time in six months. Jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing is next. All 3 of EURUSD Premium trades hit targets, making 6 out of 9. Today's Premium Trades are due at the US open.
Euro moved sharply higher today from around 1.3672 to 1.3842 on EFSF guidelines that will be presented to German lawmakers. DJ reports that these guidelines are based on the agreement reached on July 21st and allow for limited leverage through banks; limit EFSF bonds purchase to 50% of total issue and restricts market intervention to public sector debt.
German PPI rose 0.3% in September after contracting -0.3% in August. This translates to annual PPI 5.5%, unchanged from last reading. Prices have increased mainly due to rising energy and food costs.
In the UK, retail sales rose unexpectedly 0.6% in September from -0.4% in August, which is 0.6% annual growth. However, this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained due to increasing unemployment, sluggish wage growth and high inflation. GBPUSD trades around 1.58, about 90 points above the pre-announcement level.
Swiss ZEW economic expectation index was declining for the past six months. In October it slowed its rate of decline when it printed -54.4 from previous -75.7.
The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower at 401K from previous 404K and Canadian wholesale sales that are expected slightly lower in August at 0.4% from 0.8%.
10:00 am ET will bring September existing home sales anticipated to decline to 4.94M from 5.03M and Philly Fed manufacturing that is expected to lower its rate of decline to -9 in October from -17.5 in September. On Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index was below expectations.
Consumer confidence in Eurozone also due at 10:00 am is expected to worsen in October to -20 from previous -19.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Euro Above 1.38 On Reports That EFSF Deal Is Near
Reports that French/German deal on EFSF is near improves optimism, BOE MPC minutes show that GBP 50-100 bln was considered for asset purchases, Eurozone current account deficit narrows. Market turns to CPI, housing data and Canadian leading indicators index.
Overall sentiment improved and higher yielding currencies are stronger against the USD on the back of reports that an agreement between Germany and France is near. President Sarkozy told his cabinet that 10/23 summit will deliver a plan to recapitalize banks and will boost the EFSF.
However, the market may be getting too optimistic as Chancellor Merkel reiterated today that the summit will be an important but not the final step in the debt crisis resolution. She also said that the solution will require tough and long-term work.
Reports that boosted the common currency yesterday – that the EFSF will reach 2 trillion Euros – were denied but the market may be disappointed should the summit conclude with the EFSF reaching anything less then 2 trillion. It is also important to keep in mind the staggering number of reports coming from the Eurozone that were later denied or turned out to be inaccurate.
BOE MPC minutes revealed that the considered size of asset purchases was between GBP 50 and 100 bln and that no member voted for a rate change. Some members noted that due to substantial downside risk a larger than normal stimulus may be needed. GBPUSD first sold off on the news but has since recovered and trades firmly above pre-announcement levels.
In Europe, Current account deficit has narrowed to EUR -5 bln in August from previous EUR -6.8 bln.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am with September annual CPI that is seen at 3.8%, unchanged from August. Annual core print is expected to tick up to 2.1% from previous 2.0%.
Housing market data is expected to be mixed today. Building permits are anticipated lower at 610K in September from 625K and housing starts are seen higher at 590K from 570K residential buildings.
The statistics office in Canada releases its September Leading indicator index also at 8:30 am and it is expected to improve to 0.2% from previous 0%.
Federal Reserve's Beige book that describes economic conditions in each of the 12 FED's districts is due at 2:00 pm ET.
Patrik Urban
Overall sentiment improved and higher yielding currencies are stronger against the USD on the back of reports that an agreement between Germany and France is near. President Sarkozy told his cabinet that 10/23 summit will deliver a plan to recapitalize banks and will boost the EFSF.
However, the market may be getting too optimistic as Chancellor Merkel reiterated today that the summit will be an important but not the final step in the debt crisis resolution. She also said that the solution will require tough and long-term work.
Reports that boosted the common currency yesterday – that the EFSF will reach 2 trillion Euros – were denied but the market may be disappointed should the summit conclude with the EFSF reaching anything less then 2 trillion. It is also important to keep in mind the staggering number of reports coming from the Eurozone that were later denied or turned out to be inaccurate.
BOE MPC minutes revealed that the considered size of asset purchases was between GBP 50 and 100 bln and that no member voted for a rate change. Some members noted that due to substantial downside risk a larger than normal stimulus may be needed. GBPUSD first sold off on the news but has since recovered and trades firmly above pre-announcement levels.
In Europe, Current account deficit has narrowed to EUR -5 bln in August from previous EUR -6.8 bln.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am with September annual CPI that is seen at 3.8%, unchanged from August. Annual core print is expected to tick up to 2.1% from previous 2.0%.
Housing market data is expected to be mixed today. Building permits are anticipated lower at 610K in September from 625K and housing starts are seen higher at 590K from 570K residential buildings.
The statistics office in Canada releases its September Leading indicator index also at 8:30 am and it is expected to improve to 0.2% from previous 0%.
Federal Reserve's Beige book that describes economic conditions in each of the 12 FED's districts is due at 2:00 pm ET.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
German ZEW Disappoints; US PPI is Next
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2805
October 18, 2011 07:27 ET :
UK Consumer Inflation at three year high; German and Eurozone ZEW index disappoint. Market turns to PPI and TIC long term purchases. Premium Insights due before the US opening bell. Bernanke & King due to speak at 1:15 pm and 1:30 pm EST respectively.
USD remains bid in the ongoing session. As it has become the norm during times of broad risk aversion, the greenback is stronger across the board with the exception of JPY. All major equity indices are in the red.
In the UK, consumer inflation pushed up higher yet again. Annual CPI in September rose to 5.2% from 4.5% in August. Core CPI rose to 3.3% from 3.1%. Higher food, energy and transportation costs contributed to the increase. Given the deteriorating conditions of the economy it did not surprise that the strong CPI print failed to support GBP that which fell to 1.5695 against USD after the initial spike higher to 1.5785.
Today's disappointing European data intensified risk aversion that reappeared yesterday and pushed EURUSD as low as 1.3656. German ZEW economic sentiment survey continued its gradual nine months long decline to -48.3 from -43.3 in October, a level not seen since 11/2008. Current conditions component fell to 38.4 from 43.6.
Eurozone ZEW index fell to -51.2 from -44.6.
The New York session will bring September PPI at 8:30 am ET that is expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0% in August which translates to annual rise of 2.4% from previous 2.5%.
August net TIC long term purchases are due at 9:00 am and are expected higher at USD 27.8 bln from previous USD 9.5 bln. While the jump from 9.5 bln to nearly 28 bln may seem rather large, from a longer term perspective are capital inflows still below levels seen over the past few years.
Traders should also note speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke at 1:15 pm and BOE Governor Mervyn King at 1:30 pm.
Patrik Urban
October 18, 2011 07:27 ET :
UK Consumer Inflation at three year high; German and Eurozone ZEW index disappoint. Market turns to PPI and TIC long term purchases. Premium Insights due before the US opening bell. Bernanke & King due to speak at 1:15 pm and 1:30 pm EST respectively.
USD remains bid in the ongoing session. As it has become the norm during times of broad risk aversion, the greenback is stronger across the board with the exception of JPY. All major equity indices are in the red.
In the UK, consumer inflation pushed up higher yet again. Annual CPI in September rose to 5.2% from 4.5% in August. Core CPI rose to 3.3% from 3.1%. Higher food, energy and transportation costs contributed to the increase. Given the deteriorating conditions of the economy it did not surprise that the strong CPI print failed to support GBP that which fell to 1.5695 against USD after the initial spike higher to 1.5785.
Today's disappointing European data intensified risk aversion that reappeared yesterday and pushed EURUSD as low as 1.3656. German ZEW economic sentiment survey continued its gradual nine months long decline to -48.3 from -43.3 in October, a level not seen since 11/2008. Current conditions component fell to 38.4 from 43.6.
Eurozone ZEW index fell to -51.2 from -44.6.
The New York session will bring September PPI at 8:30 am ET that is expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0% in August which translates to annual rise of 2.4% from previous 2.5%.
August net TIC long term purchases are due at 9:00 am and are expected higher at USD 27.8 bln from previous USD 9.5 bln. While the jump from 9.5 bln to nearly 28 bln may seem rather large, from a longer term perspective are capital inflows still below levels seen over the past few years.
Traders should also note speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke at 1:15 pm and BOE Governor Mervyn King at 1:30 pm.
Patrik Urban
USD Stronger As Risk Aversion Returns
EUR weaker on officials' comments; larger loss for private Greek debt holders near certainty. Market turns to Empire state manufacturing, capacity utilization, industrial production and Canadian international securities transactions and quarterly business survey.
The weekend G20 meeting did not bring anything earth shattering. The only signs of progress were calls that the EU should act decisively within eight days to resolve its debt crisis and that G20 will assure that adequately capitalized banks have access to funding.
Optimism that started after last Friday's solid retail sales continued throughout the Asian session on comments that a comprehensive and decisive solution for European debt crisis will be prepared before the EU summit on 10/23. However, risk aversion has increased in early London session as German finance minister Schaeuble suggested that "EU summit will not present a final solution".
Positive sentiment that we have seen over the past two weeks could falter in the days ahead as German Finance minister Schaeuble also for the first time admitted that private holders of Greek bonds are likely to receive a larger haircut than 21% agreed three months ago. Even chancellor Merkel has begun to publically acknowledge the possibility of a bigger loss. While these comments are hardly surprising, the fact that senior officials started to openly discuss these issues could put a break on the current risk rally.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with October Empire State manufacturing index that is expected to slow its rate of decline and print -3.9 from previous -8.8. Considering solid NFP, ISM manufacturing and last Friday's robust retail sales, the print could surprise to the upside.
At 9:15 am ET September Capacity utilization and Industrial production are due. The capacity utilization is seen slightly higher at 77.5% from 77.4% and industrial production is anticipated unchanged from August at 0.2%.
News from Canada include August International Securities Transactions due at 8:30 am that are seen lower at CAD 10 bln from CAD 11.8 bln and BOC Business Outlook quarterly survey due at 10:30 am.
Patrik Urban
The weekend G20 meeting did not bring anything earth shattering. The only signs of progress were calls that the EU should act decisively within eight days to resolve its debt crisis and that G20 will assure that adequately capitalized banks have access to funding.
Optimism that started after last Friday's solid retail sales continued throughout the Asian session on comments that a comprehensive and decisive solution for European debt crisis will be prepared before the EU summit on 10/23. However, risk aversion has increased in early London session as German finance minister Schaeuble suggested that "EU summit will not present a final solution".
Positive sentiment that we have seen over the past two weeks could falter in the days ahead as German Finance minister Schaeuble also for the first time admitted that private holders of Greek bonds are likely to receive a larger haircut than 21% agreed three months ago. Even chancellor Merkel has begun to publically acknowledge the possibility of a bigger loss. While these comments are hardly surprising, the fact that senior officials started to openly discuss these issues could put a break on the current risk rally.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with October Empire State manufacturing index that is expected to slow its rate of decline and print -3.9 from previous -8.8. Considering solid NFP, ISM manufacturing and last Friday's robust retail sales, the print could surprise to the upside.
At 9:15 am ET September Capacity utilization and Industrial production are due. The capacity utilization is seen slightly higher at 77.5% from 77.4% and industrial production is anticipated unchanged from August at 0.2%.
News from Canada include August International Securities Transactions due at 8:30 am that are seen lower at CAD 10 bln from CAD 11.8 bln and BOC Business Outlook quarterly survey due at 10:30 am.
Patrik Urban
Friday, October 14, 2011
Eurozone CPI At Three Year High; Market Turns To Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence
Eurozone annual CPI at three years highs; Eurozone Trade deficit narrows. G20 meeting may consider boosting IMF lending capacity; PM Berlusconi faces a confidence vote. Market turns to Retail sales, UoM Consumer confidence and Canadian Manufacturing sales.
USD trades on the defense as risk currencies consolidate near yesterday's highs. European equity markets are in the positive territory.
Eurozone annual CPI surged in September to 3% from 2.5% in August which is the highest print in three years. Core CPI rose to 1.6% from 1.2%. Accelerating housing and transport costs are blamed for the increase.
Eurozone trade deficit narrowed to EUR -1 bln from previous EUR -3.7 bln as exports rose sharply.
G20 meeting in France starts today and continues till tomorrow. DJ reports that a boost to the IMF's lending capacity is being considered as a way to help dealing with the Eurozone crisis. However, officials note that credible and workable plan for dealing with the crisis must be presented before any agreement is possible.
In Italy, PM Berlusconi faces a confidence vote after 7:30 am ET. If his government does not survive, the common currency could be hit as uncertainty is one of the things that markets do not take well.
The NY session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with September Retail sales are expected to jump 0.5% from an unchanged print in August. Core sales are also seen higher at 0.2% from 0.1%.
Canada's National Statistical Agency releases August Manufacturing sales at the same time and a steep decline to 0.5% from previous 2.7% is anticipated. However, this indicator often shows high volatility so such large changes are not uncommon.
October UoM Consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am ET and is seen slightly higher at 60.2 from previous 59.4. Over the past two months consumer confidence has been revised higher so an improvement is more likely to some degree.
Patrik Urban
USD trades on the defense as risk currencies consolidate near yesterday's highs. European equity markets are in the positive territory.
Eurozone annual CPI surged in September to 3% from 2.5% in August which is the highest print in three years. Core CPI rose to 1.6% from 1.2%. Accelerating housing and transport costs are blamed for the increase.
Eurozone trade deficit narrowed to EUR -1 bln from previous EUR -3.7 bln as exports rose sharply.
G20 meeting in France starts today and continues till tomorrow. DJ reports that a boost to the IMF's lending capacity is being considered as a way to help dealing with the Eurozone crisis. However, officials note that credible and workable plan for dealing with the crisis must be presented before any agreement is possible.
In Italy, PM Berlusconi faces a confidence vote after 7:30 am ET. If his government does not survive, the common currency could be hit as uncertainty is one of the things that markets do not take well.
The NY session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with September Retail sales are expected to jump 0.5% from an unchanged print in August. Core sales are also seen higher at 0.2% from 0.1%.
Canada's National Statistical Agency releases August Manufacturing sales at the same time and a steep decline to 0.5% from previous 2.7% is anticipated. However, this indicator often shows high volatility so such large changes are not uncommon.
October UoM Consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am ET and is seen slightly higher at 60.2 from previous 59.4. Over the past two months consumer confidence has been revised higher so an improvement is more likely to some degree.
Patrik Urban
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Awaiting Trade Data, Berlusconi Faces Confidence Vote
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2794
October 13, 2011 07:20 ET :
Swiss deflationary pressures on the rise, German CPI confirmed at three year high; UK trade deficit narrows. Market turns to US and Canadian Trade balance, jobless claims and federal budget deficit. Premium Intermarket Insights are due at the US opening bell.
USD has had a bid tone since London open as risk aversion re-emerged, sending European equity indices into the red. JPY is also stronger across the board but far from erasing all of yesterday's losses.
Swiss Producer and Import prices fell -0.1% in September (-2% y/y) confirming SNB fears that strong franc could contribute to deflationary pressures. Lower price level gives credibility to the rumor that SNB plans to increase the price floor that is set for EURCHF from present 1.2 to 1.25 or maybe even 1.30. However, EURCHF trades lower as it is pulled back by falling EURUSD.
In the UK, August trade deficit narrowed to GBP -7.8 bln from GBP -8.2 bln as export reached record levels.
Also on the UK front, Sky News said Fitch rating agency planned to issue a statement on UK.banks, "warning of a sector-wide downgrade". There has been no such statement since.
Italy sold almost EUR 6.2 billion worth of bonds today in the first auction since last week's downgrade, somewhat lower compared to a target EUR 6.5 billion. Surprisingly, the yield on the 5 year bond was lower compared to a previous auction. Situation in Italy could become complicated as PM Berlusconi faces a confidence vote. The ECB is said to be buying Italian as well as Spanish bonds today.
In other news, the ECB October monthly bulletin described that economic outlook continues to be a subject to uncertainty and that downside risks have intensified. CPI should stay elevated above the ECB target 2% but is expected to fall. German September CPI was confirmed at 0.1% (2.6% y/y) which is unchanged from the initial estimate. Annual CPI continues to stay near three years high.
The NY session will start at 8:30 am ET with August Trade deficit that is seen wider at USD -46 bln from previous USD -44.8 bln. Jobless claims are expected to tick up to 406K from last week's 401K.
Canadian trade balance that is also due at 8:30 am is seen only slightly changed at CAD -0.9 bln in August from CAD -0.8 bln in July.
Federal budget deficit due at 2:00 pm ET is anticipated at USD -65 bln in September from USD -134.2 bln in August.
Patrik Urban
October 13, 2011 07:20 ET :
Swiss deflationary pressures on the rise, German CPI confirmed at three year high; UK trade deficit narrows. Market turns to US and Canadian Trade balance, jobless claims and federal budget deficit. Premium Intermarket Insights are due at the US opening bell.
USD has had a bid tone since London open as risk aversion re-emerged, sending European equity indices into the red. JPY is also stronger across the board but far from erasing all of yesterday's losses.
Swiss Producer and Import prices fell -0.1% in September (-2% y/y) confirming SNB fears that strong franc could contribute to deflationary pressures. Lower price level gives credibility to the rumor that SNB plans to increase the price floor that is set for EURCHF from present 1.2 to 1.25 or maybe even 1.30. However, EURCHF trades lower as it is pulled back by falling EURUSD.
In the UK, August trade deficit narrowed to GBP -7.8 bln from GBP -8.2 bln as export reached record levels.
Also on the UK front, Sky News said Fitch rating agency planned to issue a statement on UK.banks, "warning of a sector-wide downgrade". There has been no such statement since.
Italy sold almost EUR 6.2 billion worth of bonds today in the first auction since last week's downgrade, somewhat lower compared to a target EUR 6.5 billion. Surprisingly, the yield on the 5 year bond was lower compared to a previous auction. Situation in Italy could become complicated as PM Berlusconi faces a confidence vote. The ECB is said to be buying Italian as well as Spanish bonds today.
In other news, the ECB October monthly bulletin described that economic outlook continues to be a subject to uncertainty and that downside risks have intensified. CPI should stay elevated above the ECB target 2% but is expected to fall. German September CPI was confirmed at 0.1% (2.6% y/y) which is unchanged from the initial estimate. Annual CPI continues to stay near three years high.
The NY session will start at 8:30 am ET with August Trade deficit that is seen wider at USD -46 bln from previous USD -44.8 bln. Jobless claims are expected to tick up to 406K from last week's 401K.
Canadian trade balance that is also due at 8:30 am is seen only slightly changed at CAD -0.9 bln in August from CAD -0.8 bln in July.
Federal budget deficit due at 2:00 pm ET is anticipated at USD -65 bln in September from USD -134.2 bln in August.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Sterling Joins Risk Bounce Despite 17-yr Jobless High
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2789
October 12, 2011 07:34 ET :
Eurozone industrial production robust; UK Claimant count declined but unemployment highest since 1994. Market turns to Canadian new housing price index, FOMC minutes and speeches by ECB president Trichet and FOMC members Plosser and Fisher. New Premium Intermarket Insights are up. EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD, AUDCAD ESZ, CL and silver.
Improved global appetite leads emerges as markets expect Slovakia to pass EFSF within a few days. This notion is supported by Angela Merkel's comments that she is sure the EFSF will have a full approval by the EU summit at the end of next week
The common currency has also been supported by Eurozone Industrial production that rose 1.2% in August from 1.1% in July which translates to a solid annual print of 5.3%. This comes as a surprise as German industrial production, which heavily influences Eurozone results, declined 1% in August. Instead, the growth was largely driven by Portugal, Ireland and Italy.
The optimism was also underpinned by the president of European Commission Jose Barroso who will present a comprehensive response to the crisis to the EU parliament later today.
Ashrafs latest Premium Intermarket Insights are now up. New trades on EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD, AUDCAD, ESZ, CL and silver. Existing trades on USDJPY and gold. Direct access click here http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=519 Non-members click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
In the UK, Claimant Count declined to 17.5K in September from 19.1K in August and the Claimant rate rose to 5% from 4.9%. The most significant disappointment came when the unemployment rate that rose to 8.1% in August from 7.9% in July which is the highest unemployment since 1994. However, the Sterling has ignored this worrying data and rallied 200 points to a high of 1.5783.
The NY session will start at 8:30 am ET with Canadian New Housing Price index seen at 0.1% in August. There are no US data but markets could be volatile as we have NY afternoon filled with central bank speakers. At 1:20 FOMC member Richard Fisher delivers a speech about FED's operations, followed by FOMC member Charles Plosser at 1:30 pm ET.
FOMC minutes due at 2pm and are likely to be dovish and could provide insights into the possibility of further easing measures. However, keep in mind last week's payrolls number that was above expectations.
Volatility could also be stirred up during J. C. Trichet's speech in London at 2:30 pm.
Patrik Urban
October 12, 2011 07:34 ET :
Eurozone industrial production robust; UK Claimant count declined but unemployment highest since 1994. Market turns to Canadian new housing price index, FOMC minutes and speeches by ECB president Trichet and FOMC members Plosser and Fisher. New Premium Intermarket Insights are up. EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD, AUDCAD ESZ, CL and silver.
Improved global appetite leads emerges as markets expect Slovakia to pass EFSF within a few days. This notion is supported by Angela Merkel's comments that she is sure the EFSF will have a full approval by the EU summit at the end of next week
The common currency has also been supported by Eurozone Industrial production that rose 1.2% in August from 1.1% in July which translates to a solid annual print of 5.3%. This comes as a surprise as German industrial production, which heavily influences Eurozone results, declined 1% in August. Instead, the growth was largely driven by Portugal, Ireland and Italy.
The optimism was also underpinned by the president of European Commission Jose Barroso who will present a comprehensive response to the crisis to the EU parliament later today.
Ashrafs latest Premium Intermarket Insights are now up. New trades on EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD, AUDCAD, ESZ, CL and silver. Existing trades on USDJPY and gold. Direct access click here http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=519 Non-members click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
In the UK, Claimant Count declined to 17.5K in September from 19.1K in August and the Claimant rate rose to 5% from 4.9%. The most significant disappointment came when the unemployment rate that rose to 8.1% in August from 7.9% in July which is the highest unemployment since 1994. However, the Sterling has ignored this worrying data and rallied 200 points to a high of 1.5783.
The NY session will start at 8:30 am ET with Canadian New Housing Price index seen at 0.1% in August. There are no US data but markets could be volatile as we have NY afternoon filled with central bank speakers. At 1:20 FOMC member Richard Fisher delivers a speech about FED's operations, followed by FOMC member Charles Plosser at 1:30 pm ET.
FOMC minutes due at 2pm and are likely to be dovish and could provide insights into the possibility of further easing measures. However, keep in mind last week's payrolls number that was above expectations.
Volatility could also be stirred up during J. C. Trichet's speech in London at 2:30 pm.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Focus On Slovakian EFSF Vote, FOMC Minutes
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2784
October 11, 2011 07:26 ET Market consolidates ahead of crucial EFSF vote; UK data mixed. Focus turns to Canadian housing starts, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index and the FOMC minutes from last month's Operation Twist decision. Tuesday's Premium Intermarket Insights are due at the US opening bell.
Risk assets are consolidating large moves experienced yesterday and trade near session lows. J.C. Trichet's testimony before the EU Parliament's Economic Committee dented market sentiment slightly but at the same time did not reveal any surprises. President Trichet said that the crisis has reached a systemic dimension with stress being evident in larger EU countries and that the risk of contagion is rapidly rising.
UK data from earlier today was mixed. Manufacturing Production fell -0.3% in August after -0.2% in July while Industrial production rose 0.2% from previous -0.4%. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.56 support and currently trades around 1.5650
A major risk event will be Slovakian vote to approve EFSF changes. The SAS party in the four party coalition government has reiterated that it will vote against the proposition. Slovakian PM Iveta Radicova said earlier that she would ask the opposition party to support the notion which is likely to cause problems within her government and maybe even its collapse. The political situation is already tense as the EFSF vote is now linked to a government confidence vote. Changes to the EFSF must be ratified by all members and the other 17 Eurozone countries have already ratified the agreement.The parliament will meet at 7 am ET and voting will follow thereafter.
The New York session will bring Canadian Housing Starts at 8:15 am ET that are seen only marginally changed in September at 187K from 185K in August.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to increase slightly in October to 43.2 from 39.9.
At 2:00 pm ET traders focus will turn to FOMC minutes from the Fed's 9/20 meeting that ended with the announcement of Operation Twist. The record of the discussions will be interesting as it could provide clues about the possibility of further easing.
Patrik Urban
October 11, 2011 07:26 ET Market consolidates ahead of crucial EFSF vote; UK data mixed. Focus turns to Canadian housing starts, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index and the FOMC minutes from last month's Operation Twist decision. Tuesday's Premium Intermarket Insights are due at the US opening bell.
Risk assets are consolidating large moves experienced yesterday and trade near session lows. J.C. Trichet's testimony before the EU Parliament's Economic Committee dented market sentiment slightly but at the same time did not reveal any surprises. President Trichet said that the crisis has reached a systemic dimension with stress being evident in larger EU countries and that the risk of contagion is rapidly rising.
UK data from earlier today was mixed. Manufacturing Production fell -0.3% in August after -0.2% in July while Industrial production rose 0.2% from previous -0.4%. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.56 support and currently trades around 1.5650
A major risk event will be Slovakian vote to approve EFSF changes. The SAS party in the four party coalition government has reiterated that it will vote against the proposition. Slovakian PM Iveta Radicova said earlier that she would ask the opposition party to support the notion which is likely to cause problems within her government and maybe even its collapse. The political situation is already tense as the EFSF vote is now linked to a government confidence vote. Changes to the EFSF must be ratified by all members and the other 17 Eurozone countries have already ratified the agreement.The parliament will meet at 7 am ET and voting will follow thereafter.
The New York session will bring Canadian Housing Starts at 8:15 am ET that are seen only marginally changed in September at 187K from 185K in August.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to increase slightly in October to 43.2 from 39.9.
At 2:00 pm ET traders focus will turn to FOMC minutes from the Fed's 9/20 meeting that ended with the announcement of Operation Twist. The record of the discussions will be interesting as it could provide clues about the possibility of further easing.
Patrik Urban
Friday, October 7, 2011
Robust Canadian Employment Data; Focus Turns to NFP
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2776
UK Input and Output PPI rose; German industrial production fell; Canadian labor market data robust. Market turns to NFP. Ashraf's Pre-NFP Premium Trades will be released at approx 7:45 EST (11:45 GMT, 12:45 BST)
Yesterday's risk rally fueled by ECB announcement of multiple fixed rate, full allotment liquidity facilities and new round of QE by BOE continued throughout Asia but started to stall during the London session. USD is generally little changed since London open.
GBP continues to be the relative strength winner despite the new round of QE and Moody's cut of 12 UK financial institutions. Various inflation measures confirm persisting price pressure: UK PPI input prices rose 1.7% in September from -1.8% a month earlier which translates to a 17.5% increase from 16.2% on annual basis. Monthly Producer output prices increased 3.8% and annual prices soared 6.3% which is the highest since 10/2008. BOE has been expecting that inflation will start to decline but prices relentlessly continue on their upward trajectory.
German industrial production fell -1.0% in August after a solid 3.9% increase in July. Even though the print was above expectations of -1.5%, going forward industrial production is expected to decline further as a consequence of fewer orders.
Canadian Net Change in employment in September printed robust 60.9K from previous -5.5K and better than expected 15.2K. The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% from 7.3%. Unless the NFP disappoints and equity markets sell off, solid data combined with substantial oil gains should keep the loonie underpinned.
The eagerly anticipated September NPF figure is due at 8:30 am ET and is seen at 55K from previous unchanged reading. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 9.1%.
Wednesday's ADP report showed not only better than expected result (91K vs. 76K exp.) but also a slight improvement compared to August (89K) so the possibility of a significant disappointment is lower to a certain degree. Nevertheless, even a print that is in line with expectations will not change the bleak outlook for the US economy.
Average Hourly earnings are seen slightly higher at 0.2% in September compared to -0.1% in August. The last data release will come at 10:00 am ET. August wholesale inventories are seen lower at 0.6% from previous 0.8%
Patrik Urban
UK Input and Output PPI rose; German industrial production fell; Canadian labor market data robust. Market turns to NFP. Ashraf's Pre-NFP Premium Trades will be released at approx 7:45 EST (11:45 GMT, 12:45 BST)
Yesterday's risk rally fueled by ECB announcement of multiple fixed rate, full allotment liquidity facilities and new round of QE by BOE continued throughout Asia but started to stall during the London session. USD is generally little changed since London open.
GBP continues to be the relative strength winner despite the new round of QE and Moody's cut of 12 UK financial institutions. Various inflation measures confirm persisting price pressure: UK PPI input prices rose 1.7% in September from -1.8% a month earlier which translates to a 17.5% increase from 16.2% on annual basis. Monthly Producer output prices increased 3.8% and annual prices soared 6.3% which is the highest since 10/2008. BOE has been expecting that inflation will start to decline but prices relentlessly continue on their upward trajectory.
German industrial production fell -1.0% in August after a solid 3.9% increase in July. Even though the print was above expectations of -1.5%, going forward industrial production is expected to decline further as a consequence of fewer orders.
Canadian Net Change in employment in September printed robust 60.9K from previous -5.5K and better than expected 15.2K. The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% from 7.3%. Unless the NFP disappoints and equity markets sell off, solid data combined with substantial oil gains should keep the loonie underpinned.
The eagerly anticipated September NPF figure is due at 8:30 am ET and is seen at 55K from previous unchanged reading. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 9.1%.
Wednesday's ADP report showed not only better than expected result (91K vs. 76K exp.) but also a slight improvement compared to August (89K) so the possibility of a significant disappointment is lower to a certain degree. Nevertheless, even a print that is in line with expectations will not change the bleak outlook for the US economy.
Average Hourly earnings are seen slightly higher at 0.2% in September compared to -0.1% in August. The last data release will come at 10:00 am ET. August wholesale inventories are seen lower at 0.6% from previous 0.8%
Patrik Urban
Thursday, October 6, 2011
BoE QE2 by 75 bln, ECB Next
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2772
October 6, 2011 07:14 ET :
BoE held rates steady and increased the Asset Purchase Facility to 275 bln from 200 bln; Swiss CPI rose; German Factory Orders fell; Market turns to Trichet's press conference, US jobless claims and Canadian Ivey PMI.
The risk rally that started yesterday on the back of bank recapitalization talks continues today underpinned by the president of the European Commission Barroso who said that coordinated action by member states to recapitalize banks is being proposed. EURUSD gained almost 60 pips and reached to 1.3398.
German factory orders fell -1.4% in August from -2.6% in July. EURUSD lost about 20 points on the news but it is likely to stay within a narrow range as traders' attention will shift to ECB rate announcement at 7:45 am ET and the press conference at 8:30 am ET. The ECB is generally expected to hold rates steady and announce additional liquidity facilities. Last Friday's Eurozone CPI that soared to 3.0% from 2.5% makes the rate decision difficult to predict because fundamentals have shown a significant deterioration over the past few months.
Ashraf is predicting a 25bp cut and reintroduction of 1 year liquidity measures.
BoE held rates steady at 0.5% as expected and announced new QE in form of an increase of the Asset Purchase Facility to GBP 275 bln from GBP 200 bln. Asset purchases will resume next week and will take four months to complete. GBPUSD dropped 200+ points on the announcement.
Swiss CPI jumped 0.3% in September from -0.3% in August. Annual CPI rose to 0.5% from 0.2%. CHF traders were more excited about a comment by Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs that CHF should be capped at 1.30 or even 1.40 against the EUR. EURCHF jumped from 1.2330 to 1.2425 on the news but has since fallen back to pre-statement level.
The New York session will start with ECB press conference at 8:30 am ET. Traders will be watching for any hints that the ECB could cut rates during its November meeting. Jobless claims that are due at the same time are expected at 411K from previous 391K.
At 10:00 am EST Canadian Ivey PMI for September is due and is seen higher at 58.2 from 57.6.
Patrik Urban
October 6, 2011 07:14 ET :
BoE held rates steady and increased the Asset Purchase Facility to 275 bln from 200 bln; Swiss CPI rose; German Factory Orders fell; Market turns to Trichet's press conference, US jobless claims and Canadian Ivey PMI.
The risk rally that started yesterday on the back of bank recapitalization talks continues today underpinned by the president of the European Commission Barroso who said that coordinated action by member states to recapitalize banks is being proposed. EURUSD gained almost 60 pips and reached to 1.3398.
German factory orders fell -1.4% in August from -2.6% in July. EURUSD lost about 20 points on the news but it is likely to stay within a narrow range as traders' attention will shift to ECB rate announcement at 7:45 am ET and the press conference at 8:30 am ET. The ECB is generally expected to hold rates steady and announce additional liquidity facilities. Last Friday's Eurozone CPI that soared to 3.0% from 2.5% makes the rate decision difficult to predict because fundamentals have shown a significant deterioration over the past few months.
Ashraf is predicting a 25bp cut and reintroduction of 1 year liquidity measures.
BoE held rates steady at 0.5% as expected and announced new QE in form of an increase of the Asset Purchase Facility to GBP 275 bln from GBP 200 bln. Asset purchases will resume next week and will take four months to complete. GBPUSD dropped 200+ points on the announcement.
Swiss CPI jumped 0.3% in September from -0.3% in August. Annual CPI rose to 0.5% from 0.2%. CHF traders were more excited about a comment by Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs that CHF should be capped at 1.30 or even 1.40 against the EUR. EURCHF jumped from 1.2330 to 1.2425 on the news but has since fallen back to pre-statement level.
The New York session will start with ECB press conference at 8:30 am ET. Traders will be watching for any hints that the ECB could cut rates during its November meeting. Jobless claims that are due at the same time are expected at 411K from previous 391K.
At 10:00 am EST Canadian Ivey PMI for September is due and is seen higher at 58.2 from 57.6.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
UK Services PMI Robust; Premium Trades up, ADP & ISM Due
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2767
October 5, 2011 07:53 ET :
German and Eurozone Services PMI revised lower; Eurozone Retail Sales disappoint; UK Services PMI robust but GDP revised lower. Market turns to ADP and ISM Non-manufacturing. Latest Premium trades are up, including the return of USDCAD.
USD consolidates from yesterday's losses throughout the Asian and London sessions with mild downside bias. Overall sentiment has improved as European equity indices are in the positive territory.
Economic data from the Eurozone continues to disappoint as evidenced by final services PMI that was revised lower to 48.8 from the initial estimate of 49.1. The decline has been substantial considering that in August PMI printed 51.5. German services PMI was also revised lower and in this case it was to 49.7 from 50.3.This print is the lowest since 7/2009.
LATEST PREMIUM TRADES are now ready, with the addition of USDCAD. Yesterdays longs in gold ES (S&P500 futures NOT cash), US crude oil and EURGBP remain in progress. DIRECT ACCESS TO todays edition is here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=512 NON-subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Eurozone August Retail sales do not provide a reason for optimism either. Monthly figure declined -0.3% and annual retail sales fell -1.0% from previous -0.4%. A decline was expected to a certain degree as German retail sales plunged -2.9% m/m last Friday.
GBPUSD gained half a cent to 1.5480s after September services PMI printed robust 52.9 (50.5 exp.) from previous 51.1. However, better than expected PMI is negated by UK GDP that was revised lower to 0.1% in Q2 from the initial estimate of 0.2%. Annual GDP was revised to 0.6% from 0.7%.
Series of negative UK data was interrupted this week by solid manufacturing PMI and services PMI which increases the chance that in regards to QE, the MPC will choose the "wait and see" approach tomorrow.
The New York session starts at 8:15 am ET with September ADP report that is seen lower at 76K from 91K in August. ADP has been declining gradually over the past seven months.
Later at 10:00 am ET ISM Non-manufacturing is due and is expected at 53 in September from 53.3 in August.
Crude oil inventories are seen lower at 1M barrels from 1.9M barrels last week. WTI has bounced from the 77 level and low print could provide the impetus for additional buying which could also support the CAD.
Patrik Urban
October 5, 2011 07:53 ET :
German and Eurozone Services PMI revised lower; Eurozone Retail Sales disappoint; UK Services PMI robust but GDP revised lower. Market turns to ADP and ISM Non-manufacturing. Latest Premium trades are up, including the return of USDCAD.
USD consolidates from yesterday's losses throughout the Asian and London sessions with mild downside bias. Overall sentiment has improved as European equity indices are in the positive territory.
Economic data from the Eurozone continues to disappoint as evidenced by final services PMI that was revised lower to 48.8 from the initial estimate of 49.1. The decline has been substantial considering that in August PMI printed 51.5. German services PMI was also revised lower and in this case it was to 49.7 from 50.3.This print is the lowest since 7/2009.
LATEST PREMIUM TRADES are now ready, with the addition of USDCAD. Yesterdays longs in gold ES (S&P500 futures NOT cash), US crude oil and EURGBP remain in progress. DIRECT ACCESS TO todays edition is here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=512 NON-subscribers click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Eurozone August Retail sales do not provide a reason for optimism either. Monthly figure declined -0.3% and annual retail sales fell -1.0% from previous -0.4%. A decline was expected to a certain degree as German retail sales plunged -2.9% m/m last Friday.
GBPUSD gained half a cent to 1.5480s after September services PMI printed robust 52.9 (50.5 exp.) from previous 51.1. However, better than expected PMI is negated by UK GDP that was revised lower to 0.1% in Q2 from the initial estimate of 0.2%. Annual GDP was revised to 0.6% from 0.7%.
Series of negative UK data was interrupted this week by solid manufacturing PMI and services PMI which increases the chance that in regards to QE, the MPC will choose the "wait and see" approach tomorrow.
The New York session starts at 8:15 am ET with September ADP report that is seen lower at 76K from 91K in August. ADP has been declining gradually over the past seven months.
Later at 10:00 am ET ISM Non-manufacturing is due and is expected at 53 in September from 53.3 in August.
Crude oil inventories are seen lower at 1M barrels from 1.9M barrels last week. WTI has bounced from the 77 level and low print could provide the impetus for additional buying which could also support the CAD.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
GBP Pressured by PMI, Latest Premium Trades
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2764
October 4, 2011 07:13 ET :
UK Construction PMI dropped; Eurozone PPI declined. China is opposed to US Currency Bill; Japanese firms see USDJPY above 80 during the fiscal year 2011. Market will focus on speeches by J. C. Trichet and Ben Bernanke, followed by Factory Orders. LATEST PREMIUM TRADES are up, see link below.
GBPUSD continues to trade heavy after UK Construction PMI declined to 50.1 in September from 52.6 in August. Construction PMI has been declining for five months in a row and today's print is the worst since 12/2010. Today's disappointing result negates yesterday's better than expected manufacturing PMI that could be used as an argument against the possible increase in the Asset Purchase Facility.
August Eurozone PPI printed 5.9% from previous 6.1% on annual basis. Monthly PPI contracted by 0.1% from +0.5% in July. Analysts expected -0.2%.
Despite persisting JPY strength, major Japanese automakers expect the USDJPY rate to average 80.51 during the fiscal year 2011 MNI reported. Major electronics firms project 81.19 and other businesses predict 79.82. However, all three categories have lowered their previous estimate to some degree.
Ashraf's latest PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS are now up "Euro DownCycles & Revised F'cast" Click here for direct access: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=510 To subscribe, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
China has warned the US that it is "adamantly opposed" to the so called "Currency bill" that the US senate can begin considering after yesterday's 79 to 19 vote. This bill that could limit Chinese imports by imposing tariffs would be a measure against the artificially weak Chinese currency that contributes to widening trade deficit. Chinese officials said that the passage of the bill could lead to a trade war and that Beijing will continue to gradually strengthen the flexibility of the CNY exchange rate.
Market volatility could increase when ECB president J. C. Trichet testifies at 9:00 am ET before the European Parliament's Economic Committee. At the same time,FED governor and FOMC member Sarah Bloom Raskin delivers a speech in Maryland. Audience questions are expected.
The New York session will also bring August Factory orders at 10:00 am ET that are seen unchanged from +2.4% print in July. Traders are likely to focus on FED chairman Ben Bernanke who at the same time testifies before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington DC.
Patrik Urban
October 4, 2011 07:13 ET :
UK Construction PMI dropped; Eurozone PPI declined. China is opposed to US Currency Bill; Japanese firms see USDJPY above 80 during the fiscal year 2011. Market will focus on speeches by J. C. Trichet and Ben Bernanke, followed by Factory Orders. LATEST PREMIUM TRADES are up, see link below.
GBPUSD continues to trade heavy after UK Construction PMI declined to 50.1 in September from 52.6 in August. Construction PMI has been declining for five months in a row and today's print is the worst since 12/2010. Today's disappointing result negates yesterday's better than expected manufacturing PMI that could be used as an argument against the possible increase in the Asset Purchase Facility.
August Eurozone PPI printed 5.9% from previous 6.1% on annual basis. Monthly PPI contracted by 0.1% from +0.5% in July. Analysts expected -0.2%.
Despite persisting JPY strength, major Japanese automakers expect the USDJPY rate to average 80.51 during the fiscal year 2011 MNI reported. Major electronics firms project 81.19 and other businesses predict 79.82. However, all three categories have lowered their previous estimate to some degree.
Ashraf's latest PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS are now up "Euro DownCycles & Revised F'cast" Click here for direct access: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=510 To subscribe, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
China has warned the US that it is "adamantly opposed" to the so called "Currency bill" that the US senate can begin considering after yesterday's 79 to 19 vote. This bill that could limit Chinese imports by imposing tariffs would be a measure against the artificially weak Chinese currency that contributes to widening trade deficit. Chinese officials said that the passage of the bill could lead to a trade war and that Beijing will continue to gradually strengthen the flexibility of the CNY exchange rate.
Market volatility could increase when ECB president J. C. Trichet testifies at 9:00 am ET before the European Parliament's Economic Committee. At the same time,FED governor and FOMC member Sarah Bloom Raskin delivers a speech in Maryland. Audience questions are expected.
The New York session will also bring August Factory orders at 10:00 am ET that are seen unchanged from +2.4% print in July. Traders are likely to focus on FED chairman Ben Bernanke who at the same time testifies before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington DC.
Patrik Urban
Monday, October 3, 2011
GBP Nears Lows Despite PMI Rise, ISM Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2759
October 3, 2011 07:13 ET :
Swiss retail sales and PMI disappoint; Eurozone PMI revised higher but still confirm sector contraction; UK PMI better than expected. Market turns to US ISM manufacturing due at 10:00 am. Ashraf's Premium Insights due in 60 mins.
Throughout the London session, USD was consolidating gains it made during Asian trading. As risk aversion lingers, JPY continues to be the only major currency that outperforms the greenback. Gold and silver push higher and have recovered a part of last week's losses. Gold trades around 1660 and silver around 31.
Data from Switzerland disappointed again when annualized Swiss Retail sales dropped -1.9% in August from +2.9% in July and SVME PMI fell to 48.2 from 51.7. Manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years.
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.5 from 49 in August, the worst since 8/2009 but still better than the initial estimate of 48.4. German final Manufacturing PMI printed 50.3 from 50.9 in August and also came out ahead of the flash estimate. Despite these revisions, m/m readings show declining figures and point to further weakness.
September UK Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 51.1, from Augusts upwardly revised 49.4. Immediately after the release, GBP lost about 50 points but it recovered them within seconds suggesting a "fat finger" error. Today's above 50 reading, which implies a sector expansion, may indicate that calls for an increase in the Asset Purchase Facility may be unanswered on Thursday. At the same time, New Export Orders sub index fell to 26 months low confirming economic woes.
Today's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers will deal with the issue of leveraging ESFS while the next meeting scheduled at the end of October should determine whether Greece will receive the next part of the aid. News that EFSF will be increased/leveraged substantially may help to improve risk sentiment and temporarily lift the Euro.
The US session will bring ISM Manufacturing for September that is seen slightly lower at 50.5 from previous 50.6 and ISM Prices Paid index that is expected at 54 from 55.5. Construction spending in August should come at -0.2% from -1.3%. All data releases are due at 10:00 am ET.
Patrik Urban
October 3, 2011 07:13 ET :
Swiss retail sales and PMI disappoint; Eurozone PMI revised higher but still confirm sector contraction; UK PMI better than expected. Market turns to US ISM manufacturing due at 10:00 am. Ashraf's Premium Insights due in 60 mins.
Throughout the London session, USD was consolidating gains it made during Asian trading. As risk aversion lingers, JPY continues to be the only major currency that outperforms the greenback. Gold and silver push higher and have recovered a part of last week's losses. Gold trades around 1660 and silver around 31.
Data from Switzerland disappointed again when annualized Swiss Retail sales dropped -1.9% in August from +2.9% in July and SVME PMI fell to 48.2 from 51.7. Manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years.
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.5 from 49 in August, the worst since 8/2009 but still better than the initial estimate of 48.4. German final Manufacturing PMI printed 50.3 from 50.9 in August and also came out ahead of the flash estimate. Despite these revisions, m/m readings show declining figures and point to further weakness.
September UK Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 51.1, from Augusts upwardly revised 49.4. Immediately after the release, GBP lost about 50 points but it recovered them within seconds suggesting a "fat finger" error. Today's above 50 reading, which implies a sector expansion, may indicate that calls for an increase in the Asset Purchase Facility may be unanswered on Thursday. At the same time, New Export Orders sub index fell to 26 months low confirming economic woes.
Today's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers will deal with the issue of leveraging ESFS while the next meeting scheduled at the end of October should determine whether Greece will receive the next part of the aid. News that EFSF will be increased/leveraged substantially may help to improve risk sentiment and temporarily lift the Euro.
The US session will bring ISM Manufacturing for September that is seen slightly lower at 50.5 from previous 50.6 and ISM Prices Paid index that is expected at 54 from 55.5. Construction spending in August should come at -0.2% from -1.3%. All data releases are due at 10:00 am ET.
Patrik Urban
Euro Remains Weak Despite Ezone CPI Jump
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2755
September 30, 2011 07:43 ET :
German retail sales drop; Eurozone unemployment remains high; Eurozone CPI surges to highest level in 3 years; Swiss KOF declines. Market turns to US PCE price index, personal income and spending, Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP. Ashraf's Premium Trades
The common currency has been under pressure over the past two trading sessions, declining from 1.3679 to 1.3487. The downside pressure is likely to continue as German Retail sales dropped -2.9% in August from +0.3% in July and Eurozone unemployment rate remained elevated at 10%.
Eurozone annual CPI surged to 3% in September, nearing a 3-year high, beating expectations of 2.5%. In August, CPI was at 2.5% and even that reading exceeded ECB target of 2%. CPI rose at the fastest rate since 10/2008.
EURUSD is likely to close current week at the lows confirming its inability to remain above key weekly trendlines. More about key levels and longer term trendlines in Ashraf's premium piece here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=508 Non-members can get a trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ CL, ES Premium trades all hit targets; One EURUSD trade done, the other as well as EURJPY & EURGBP in progress.
Swiss fundamental data started to deteriorate recently and the SNB projects that the economy will slow significantly towards the end of the year. KOF Economic barometer that fell to 1.21 in September from 1.61 in August, marking fourth decline in a row, confirms this view. CHF strength that impacted exports is blamed for the KOF falling to two year low.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with FED's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE price index which is expected to remain at 0.2% in August. August Personal spending is seen lower at 0.2% from 0.8% in July and Personal income is anticipated to increase 0.1% from previous increase of 0.3%.
Canadian GDP is also due at 8:30 am ET and is expected to tick up to 0.3% in July from 0.2% in June. Annual GDP is seen at 2.3% from previous 2%.
Chicago PMI due at 9:45 am is anticipated to decline to 55.8 from 56.5 and University of Michigan consumer confidence due at 9:55 am is expected unrevised at 57.8.
Today marks the end of the week, month and the quarter. Markets could be thin and flows somewhat harder to predict as participants rebalance their portfolios.
Patrik Urban
September 30, 2011 07:43 ET :
German retail sales drop; Eurozone unemployment remains high; Eurozone CPI surges to highest level in 3 years; Swiss KOF declines. Market turns to US PCE price index, personal income and spending, Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP. Ashraf's Premium Trades
The common currency has been under pressure over the past two trading sessions, declining from 1.3679 to 1.3487. The downside pressure is likely to continue as German Retail sales dropped -2.9% in August from +0.3% in July and Eurozone unemployment rate remained elevated at 10%.
Eurozone annual CPI surged to 3% in September, nearing a 3-year high, beating expectations of 2.5%. In August, CPI was at 2.5% and even that reading exceeded ECB target of 2%. CPI rose at the fastest rate since 10/2008.
EURUSD is likely to close current week at the lows confirming its inability to remain above key weekly trendlines. More about key levels and longer term trendlines in Ashraf's premium piece here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=508 Non-members can get a trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ CL, ES Premium trades all hit targets; One EURUSD trade done, the other as well as EURJPY & EURGBP in progress.
Swiss fundamental data started to deteriorate recently and the SNB projects that the economy will slow significantly towards the end of the year. KOF Economic barometer that fell to 1.21 in September from 1.61 in August, marking fourth decline in a row, confirms this view. CHF strength that impacted exports is blamed for the KOF falling to two year low.
The New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with FED's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE price index which is expected to remain at 0.2% in August. August Personal spending is seen lower at 0.2% from 0.8% in July and Personal income is anticipated to increase 0.1% from previous increase of 0.3%.
Canadian GDP is also due at 8:30 am ET and is expected to tick up to 0.3% in July from 0.2% in June. Annual GDP is seen at 2.3% from previous 2%.
Chicago PMI due at 9:45 am is anticipated to decline to 55.8 from 56.5 and University of Michigan consumer confidence due at 9:55 am is expected unrevised at 57.8.
Today marks the end of the week, month and the quarter. Markets could be thin and flows somewhat harder to predict as participants rebalance their portfolios.
Patrik Urban
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