http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2579
July 29, 2011 07:59 ET :
USD is stronger in the ongoing session after Moodys placed Spanish AA2 rating on review. Euro ignores strong German Retail Sales; Eurozone CPI lower. US session will bring Canadian and US advance Q2 GDP, Chicago PMI
Only a few hours after Moodys placed Spanish rating on a review and downgraded ratings of six Spanish regions, the government decided to dissolve the parliament and hold elections by the end of November. In a typical risk off environment, higher yielding currencies and the Euro are sold while the USD, the CHF and the JPY benefit.
German Retail Sales in June jumped up significantly to 6.3% from previous -2.8% and Eurozone CPI fell in July to 2.5% from previous 2.7%. In the UK Mortgage Approvals increased in June to 48K from 46K. Neither the common currency nor the Sterling could benefit from these news as the underlying risk off sentiment is powerful.
Voting on the Republican proposal was postponed yesterday and should happen today. Should the proposal be passed, especially if it happens in the afternoon, illiquid Friday markets would exaggerate the moves.
The US session will bring GDP data for Canada and the US and also the PMI indicator from the Chicago area. Canadian May GDP due at 8:30 am ET is expected to increase by 0.1% from an unchanged print in April while the y/y print is seen steady at 2.8%.
Second quarter US GDP is seen lower at 1.7% from previous 1.9%. Poor data that we have seen over the past few months, especially weak labor market, disappointing retail sales and worsening PMI data, support the notion of a low print which is likely to reignite talks about how temporary the current slowdown is.
July Chicago PMI due at 9:45 am ET is expected to print 60.1 from previous 61.1
Direct Access to Premium Trades http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=464 To subscribe, http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Friday, July 29, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Euro Falls on Weak Data; US Pending Home Sales Next, New Trades up
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2574
July 28, 2011 08:10 ET :
USD has had a slight upside bias since London open with the majority of gains seen against the EUR and GBP. German labor market worsened slightly, Eurozone economic sentiment fell and UK CBI Sales dropped. Focus turns to Pending Home Sales. Our Thursday Premium trades are up, New trades for USDJPY, EURUSD, EURGBP, FTSE-100, S&P500, while our trades on Gold & Silver remain in progress.
Euro fell on combination of weak data and renewed rumors that Italian finance minister Tremonti is about to resign. These factors, combined with low demand from domestic buyers seen during recent Italian bond auctions, sent Italian yields higher. As a consequence, Italian/German 10 year spread widened. The latest 10 year bond auction worth of EUR 8 bln sold at the highest yield since February 2000.
On the data front, German Unemployment Change worsened in July to 11K people from previous -8K while the unemployment rate stayed the same and in line with expectation at 7%.
THURSDAY PREMIUM TRADES are posted: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=464 NON-Subscribers can get access here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Eurozone economic sentiment in July fell to 103.2 from previous 105.4 and UK CBI Realized Sales dropped to -5 from previous -2 which marks second negative print in a row after almost a year of positive readings.
The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Jobless claims that continue to hover above the 400K mark. Labor market improvement is unlikely as long as claims continue to be stubbornly high.
10:00 am ET will bring June Pending Home sales data. After surging 8.2% in May, analysts expect sales to fall back below zero and print -1.5% as underlying trend remains soft. Weak labor market combined with large number of foreclosures suggests that the housing market has a long way towards a sustained recovery.
Patrik Urban
July 28, 2011 08:10 ET :
USD has had a slight upside bias since London open with the majority of gains seen against the EUR and GBP. German labor market worsened slightly, Eurozone economic sentiment fell and UK CBI Sales dropped. Focus turns to Pending Home Sales. Our Thursday Premium trades are up, New trades for USDJPY, EURUSD, EURGBP, FTSE-100, S&P500, while our trades on Gold & Silver remain in progress.
Euro fell on combination of weak data and renewed rumors that Italian finance minister Tremonti is about to resign. These factors, combined with low demand from domestic buyers seen during recent Italian bond auctions, sent Italian yields higher. As a consequence, Italian/German 10 year spread widened. The latest 10 year bond auction worth of EUR 8 bln sold at the highest yield since February 2000.
On the data front, German Unemployment Change worsened in July to 11K people from previous -8K while the unemployment rate stayed the same and in line with expectation at 7%.
THURSDAY PREMIUM TRADES are posted: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=464 NON-Subscribers can get access here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Eurozone economic sentiment in July fell to 103.2 from previous 105.4 and UK CBI Realized Sales dropped to -5 from previous -2 which marks second negative print in a row after almost a year of positive readings.
The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Jobless claims that continue to hover above the 400K mark. Labor market improvement is unlikely as long as claims continue to be stubbornly high.
10:00 am ET will bring June Pending Home sales data. After surging 8.2% in May, analysts expect sales to fall back below zero and print -1.5% as underlying trend remains soft. Weak labor market combined with large number of foreclosures suggests that the housing market has a long way towards a sustained recovery.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Higher German CPI Likely; Onto US Durable Goods
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2571
July 27, 2011 08:04 ET :
USD is either unchanged or slightly higher against the major currencies since London open. German CPI is still being collected but regions that already announced results see somewhat higher readings. GBP weakens after CBI Industrial Order Expectations drops. US session will bring June Durable Goods orders. See Ashraf's latest shorts in S&P500 and US crude oil in the Premium Intermarket Insights as well as rest of the trades in EURUSD, EURGBP, Gold and Silver.
USD has been consolidating with mild upside bias. EURUSD weakened to 1.4450 and soon is likely to attract dip buyers. Unless we see a breakthrough in the debt ceiling talks, the USD weakness should resume.
German CPI data for July is still being collected with most regions so far reporting 0.4% - 0.5% increase. Some parts have seen higher than expected readings (Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse) and the region of Westphalia recorded the highest yearly CPI since 2008 at 2.7%. Higher final print would underpin the Euro.
GBPUSD fell about 40 points when CBI Industrial Order Expectations dropped in July to -10 from previous 1. Prints below zero indicate an expectation of a decreasing orders volume.
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer decreased in July to 2.04 from previous 2.23. According to UBS the fall can be attributed to the strength of the CHF that affects countrys industrial production. There were no lasting effects of this release and CHF continues to trade near historical highs.
LATEST TRADES ON US Crude oil, S&P500, EURUSD, EURGBP, USDJPY, Gold and Silver found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=462 NON-SUBSCRIBERS: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with June Durable Goods Orders that are expected to decrease to 0.4% from 2.1%. Core Orders are also seen lower at 0.5% from previous 0.7%.
The Beige book that is due at 2:00 pm ET provides some of the information that FOMC will consider in their upcoming meeting on August 9th. While the Beige book release often impacts financial markets it is likely that any new developments in the debt ceiling saga will take precedence.
Traders should pay attention at 5:00 pm ET when New Zealand announces interest rates. Analysts see rates unchanged at 2.5%
Patrik Urban
July 27, 2011 08:04 ET :
USD is either unchanged or slightly higher against the major currencies since London open. German CPI is still being collected but regions that already announced results see somewhat higher readings. GBP weakens after CBI Industrial Order Expectations drops. US session will bring June Durable Goods orders. See Ashraf's latest shorts in S&P500 and US crude oil in the Premium Intermarket Insights as well as rest of the trades in EURUSD, EURGBP, Gold and Silver.
USD has been consolidating with mild upside bias. EURUSD weakened to 1.4450 and soon is likely to attract dip buyers. Unless we see a breakthrough in the debt ceiling talks, the USD weakness should resume.
German CPI data for July is still being collected with most regions so far reporting 0.4% - 0.5% increase. Some parts have seen higher than expected readings (Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse) and the region of Westphalia recorded the highest yearly CPI since 2008 at 2.7%. Higher final print would underpin the Euro.
GBPUSD fell about 40 points when CBI Industrial Order Expectations dropped in July to -10 from previous 1. Prints below zero indicate an expectation of a decreasing orders volume.
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer decreased in July to 2.04 from previous 2.23. According to UBS the fall can be attributed to the strength of the CHF that affects countrys industrial production. There were no lasting effects of this release and CHF continues to trade near historical highs.
LATEST TRADES ON US Crude oil, S&P500, EURUSD, EURGBP, USDJPY, Gold and Silver found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=462 NON-SUBSCRIBERS: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
The New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with June Durable Goods Orders that are expected to decrease to 0.4% from 2.1%. Core Orders are also seen lower at 0.5% from previous 0.7%.
The Beige book that is due at 2:00 pm ET provides some of the information that FOMC will consider in their upcoming meeting on August 9th. While the Beige book release often impacts financial markets it is likely that any new developments in the debt ceiling saga will take precedence.
Traders should pay attention at 5:00 pm ET when New Zealand announces interest rates. Analysts see rates unchanged at 2.5%
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
UK GDP As Expected; More USD Selling
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2567
July 26, 2011 08:12 ET :
FX markets consolidated during the London session after the greenback was sold across the board in Asia. Euro ignores lower German Consumer Climate data and GBP is higher despite poor GDP numbers. Market turns to US consumer confidence & New Home Sales.
USD experienced major weakness during the Asian session as US debt ceiling woes continue with little progress. As long as no deal is announced and USD debt downgrade looms, USD selling is likely to continue. Amid the USD selling frenzy, the NZD and the CHF reached new historical highs above 0.87 and bellow 0.80 respectively.
Sentiment towards the USD is so poor that unless data releases surprise significantly, they play only a minor role. German GfK Consumer Climate for August came out slightly lower at 5.4 from previous 5.5 and second quarter GDP in the UK was in line with expectations at 0.2% but lower from previous 0.5%. On year over year basis UK GDP grew at 0.7%. GBP reacted positively to the GDP data as rumors of extremely weak print were floating around the dealing desks before the release.
The UK data were released after our Premium trades hit their 0.8880 targets in EURGBP. Ashraf's premium trades have focused on silver, whereby he used his signature approach on Gold/Silver Ratios against Silver to make his case for the upcoming trades. http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=461
To become a member and/or try a free 1-week: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
New York session is rich with data today. The S&P/CS Composite House Price Index in May is due at 9:00 am ET and is expected to have decreased by -4.6% from previous -4.0% y/y. The selling price of a single family home has been decreasing gradually since July 2010 and is reaching contraction levels not seen since the beginning of 2010.
July Consumer Confidence data is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to decrease for the fourth time in a row. The print is expected to decrease to 57.1 from previous 58.5. June New Home Sales are expected to stay in a range seen over the past quarter and the expected print of 321K would be only a slight improvement from previous 319K.
Finally, July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to improve again to 5 from 3. In May this index dropped to -6.
As the US economy continues to slow down and the US political bickering goes on, traders may get another reason why to sell the USD. It is hard to imagine that any of these data releases would surprise to the upside.
Patrik Urban
Adam Button
July 26, 2011 08:12 ET :
FX markets consolidated during the London session after the greenback was sold across the board in Asia. Euro ignores lower German Consumer Climate data and GBP is higher despite poor GDP numbers. Market turns to US consumer confidence & New Home Sales.
USD experienced major weakness during the Asian session as US debt ceiling woes continue with little progress. As long as no deal is announced and USD debt downgrade looms, USD selling is likely to continue. Amid the USD selling frenzy, the NZD and the CHF reached new historical highs above 0.87 and bellow 0.80 respectively.
Sentiment towards the USD is so poor that unless data releases surprise significantly, they play only a minor role. German GfK Consumer Climate for August came out slightly lower at 5.4 from previous 5.5 and second quarter GDP in the UK was in line with expectations at 0.2% but lower from previous 0.5%. On year over year basis UK GDP grew at 0.7%. GBP reacted positively to the GDP data as rumors of extremely weak print were floating around the dealing desks before the release.
The UK data were released after our Premium trades hit their 0.8880 targets in EURGBP. Ashraf's premium trades have focused on silver, whereby he used his signature approach on Gold/Silver Ratios against Silver to make his case for the upcoming trades. http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=461
To become a member and/or try a free 1-week: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
New York session is rich with data today. The S&P/CS Composite House Price Index in May is due at 9:00 am ET and is expected to have decreased by -4.6% from previous -4.0% y/y. The selling price of a single family home has been decreasing gradually since July 2010 and is reaching contraction levels not seen since the beginning of 2010.
July Consumer Confidence data is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to decrease for the fourth time in a row. The print is expected to decrease to 57.1 from previous 58.5. June New Home Sales are expected to stay in a range seen over the past quarter and the expected print of 321K would be only a slight improvement from previous 319K.
Finally, July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to improve again to 5 from 3. In May this index dropped to -6.
As the US economy continues to slow down and the US political bickering goes on, traders may get another reason why to sell the USD. It is hard to imagine that any of these data releases would surprise to the upside.
Patrik Urban
Adam Button
Monday, July 25, 2011
Risk Aversion Sends USDCHF to New Historical Lows
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2562
July 25, 2011 09:32 ET :
USD is little changed and trading near Fridays closelevels. The exception is USDCHF that continues to melt down. US debt ceiling stalemate to keepUSD under pressure. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity is next.
USD is likely to stay under pressure as market focus turnedfrom the Eurozone periphery debt problem to the US debt ceiling stalemate. Riskaversion that would under normal circumstances support the greenback,underpinned JPY and sent CHF soaring. USDCHF made new historical lows at 0.8020while EURCHF traded down to 1.1530 which is more than 200 points below Fridaysclose.
We can often see markets find a resistance/support at big,round numbers such as 0.8 in USDCHF. Trying to pick bottoms is similar to theproverbial catching of the falling knife but option related buying combinedwith the psychological aspect of round numbers could provide short termsupport.
Over the past two weeks BOJ officials started again to issuestatements regarding JPY strength. Yesterday was not an exception as BOJgovernor stated that JPY rise poses risk to the Japanese economy. Given themassive loss that SNB is keeping on their books after failed interventions near1.50 in EURCHF, BOJ is likely to think twice before devoting a significantcapital to interventions.
On the data front, ItalianConsumer Confidence in July fell to 103.7 from 105.8 in June and UK BBA MortgageApprovals for home purchase increased slightly to 31.7K in June from 30.8K inMay. Despite this increase, year over year data shows a 6% decrease.
There is only one fundamental data release due during the New York session today.At 10:30 am ET DallasFed Manufacturing Activity for July is expected to print -7.2 after dropping to-17.5 a month earlier. Even though this indicator usually does not have muchlasting impact, it confirms the manufacturing slowdown that is taking place notonly in the USbut in most countries around the world.
Patrik Urban
July 25, 2011 09:32 ET :
USD is little changed and trading near Fridays closelevels. The exception is USDCHF that continues to melt down. US debt ceiling stalemate to keepUSD under pressure. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity is next.
USD is likely to stay under pressure as market focus turnedfrom the Eurozone periphery debt problem to the US debt ceiling stalemate. Riskaversion that would under normal circumstances support the greenback,underpinned JPY and sent CHF soaring. USDCHF made new historical lows at 0.8020while EURCHF traded down to 1.1530 which is more than 200 points below Fridaysclose.
We can often see markets find a resistance/support at big,round numbers such as 0.8 in USDCHF. Trying to pick bottoms is similar to theproverbial catching of the falling knife but option related buying combinedwith the psychological aspect of round numbers could provide short termsupport.
Over the past two weeks BOJ officials started again to issuestatements regarding JPY strength. Yesterday was not an exception as BOJgovernor stated that JPY rise poses risk to the Japanese economy. Given themassive loss that SNB is keeping on their books after failed interventions near1.50 in EURCHF, BOJ is likely to think twice before devoting a significantcapital to interventions.
On the data front, ItalianConsumer Confidence in July fell to 103.7 from 105.8 in June and UK BBA MortgageApprovals for home purchase increased slightly to 31.7K in June from 30.8K inMay. Despite this increase, year over year data shows a 6% decrease.
There is only one fundamental data release due during the New York session today.At 10:30 am ET DallasFed Manufacturing Activity for July is expected to print -7.2 after dropping to-17.5 a month earlier. Even though this indicator usually does not have muchlasting impact, it confirms the manufacturing slowdown that is taking place notonly in the USbut in most countries around the world.
Patrik Urban
Forex video komentář 25.7.2011
Komentář k aktuálnímu vývoji na měnovém trhu - Forex - od analytika a profesionálního tradera Patrika Urbana.
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Friday, July 22, 2011
Eurozone Industrial Orders Improve; Canadian CPI Drops
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2558
July 22, 2011 07:59 ET :
USD mixed ahead NY open. While the AUD and NZD trade above their yesterdays highs, EUR, GBP and JPY failed to reach new highs. CAD is being sold after inflation figures came out much lower. Canadian Retail Sales are next.
The common currency continues to consolidate after it gained nearly 300 points yesterday. Economic data releases came out mixed - German Ifo Business Climate index for July decreased to 112.9 from 114.5. However, Eurozone Industrial New Orders in May came out much higher than expected at 3.6% from previous contraction by 0.1%. This is the best result since October 2010 and yet the Euro was not able to rally. Reports yesterday said that the move up was fueled by leveraged players while real money funds were seen selling into the rally.
Canadian June Consumer Inflation figures came out much weaker than expected sending CAD lower against its trading counterparts. The headline CPI came out at -0.7% from previous increase of 0.7% and core CPI printed -0.6% from +0.5%. Right after the release USDCAD touched the 0.95 figure while an hour before the release it traded around 0.9440. Only on Tuesday, the BoC left rates unchanged at 1% but the CAD gained on expectation of rate hikes. With the annual CPI dropping from 3.7% to 3.1% within one month BoC may not be in a hurry to increase rates.
Fridays New York session has only one data release. At 8:30 am ET May Canadian Retail sales are expected to drop to -0.3% from previous +0.3%. Core Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.2% from unchanged reading in April.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will meet with Ben Bernanke and William Dudley this morning. While the topic of this meeting has not been disclosed, it is likely that emergency measures in the event of US debt default will be discussed. Charles Plosser, Philadelphia Fed president, told Reuters earlier that the treasury is engaged in talks with the Fed. Such meetings do not inspire confidence that a debt-ceiling deal is near.
See our Premium Trades under the latest edition "How high the Euro Now?" http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=460
To join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
July 22, 2011 07:59 ET :
USD mixed ahead NY open. While the AUD and NZD trade above their yesterdays highs, EUR, GBP and JPY failed to reach new highs. CAD is being sold after inflation figures came out much lower. Canadian Retail Sales are next.
The common currency continues to consolidate after it gained nearly 300 points yesterday. Economic data releases came out mixed - German Ifo Business Climate index for July decreased to 112.9 from 114.5. However, Eurozone Industrial New Orders in May came out much higher than expected at 3.6% from previous contraction by 0.1%. This is the best result since October 2010 and yet the Euro was not able to rally. Reports yesterday said that the move up was fueled by leveraged players while real money funds were seen selling into the rally.
Canadian June Consumer Inflation figures came out much weaker than expected sending CAD lower against its trading counterparts. The headline CPI came out at -0.7% from previous increase of 0.7% and core CPI printed -0.6% from +0.5%. Right after the release USDCAD touched the 0.95 figure while an hour before the release it traded around 0.9440. Only on Tuesday, the BoC left rates unchanged at 1% but the CAD gained on expectation of rate hikes. With the annual CPI dropping from 3.7% to 3.1% within one month BoC may not be in a hurry to increase rates.
Fridays New York session has only one data release. At 8:30 am ET May Canadian Retail sales are expected to drop to -0.3% from previous +0.3%. Core Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.2% from unchanged reading in April.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will meet with Ben Bernanke and William Dudley this morning. While the topic of this meeting has not been disclosed, it is likely that emergency measures in the event of US debt default will be discussed. Charles Plosser, Philadelphia Fed president, told Reuters earlier that the treasury is engaged in talks with the Fed. Such meetings do not inspire confidence that a debt-ceiling deal is near.
See our Premium Trades under the latest edition "How high the Euro Now?" http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=460
To join: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Euro Struggles on Selective Default & Weak PMI data
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2555
July 21, 2011 08:06 ET :
Euro dropped briefly after an announcement that Greek situation will include selective default before regaining 1,4190s. German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI both disappoint. UK Retail Sales improve. Focus turns to US jobless claims & Philly Fed index.
The market was optimistic as various solutions to Greece were presented earlier. During the Asian session, the euro strengthened further on the news that Germany and France reached a common solution. However, when details started to come in, the Euro dropped across the board and traded as low as 1.4140 against the dollar.
Merkel and Sarkozy agreed that a selective default on Greek debt is possible in order to allow private sector involvement. This position has been confirmed by J. C. Juncker, the head of Eurozone finance ministers. Reuters reports that even ECB has accepted selective default as a part of the solution.
The pressure on the euro increased after German Manufacturing PMI for July printed 52.1 from 54.6. This is the lowest reading since November 2009 and marks fourth month of back to back decreases. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for July also disappointed when it dropped to 50.4 from 52.0 after gradually declining for four months to the lowest print since September 2009.
Positive news came out of the UK as June Retail Sales recovered to 0.7%. Last month was revised slightly up to -1.3%. It is not all encouraging though. The report shows that high prices caused the largest yearly fall in food stores sales since 1988.
The New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with Unemployment Claims that are still expected above 400K. More important Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for July is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to increase to 3.4 from previous drop to -7.7 which was the first negative print since September 2010.
Traders should also note that at 10:00 am ET Fed Chairman Bernanke starts his testimony in Washington DC.
Both double trades in EURUSD & GBPUSD were executed at their respective limits; See detail here of these FOUR trades: http://tinyurl.com/ 3sqspbx
Click here to get your Free 1-week trial: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
July 21, 2011 08:06 ET :
Euro dropped briefly after an announcement that Greek situation will include selective default before regaining 1,4190s. German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI both disappoint. UK Retail Sales improve. Focus turns to US jobless claims & Philly Fed index.
The market was optimistic as various solutions to Greece were presented earlier. During the Asian session, the euro strengthened further on the news that Germany and France reached a common solution. However, when details started to come in, the Euro dropped across the board and traded as low as 1.4140 against the dollar.
Merkel and Sarkozy agreed that a selective default on Greek debt is possible in order to allow private sector involvement. This position has been confirmed by J. C. Juncker, the head of Eurozone finance ministers. Reuters reports that even ECB has accepted selective default as a part of the solution.
The pressure on the euro increased after German Manufacturing PMI for July printed 52.1 from 54.6. This is the lowest reading since November 2009 and marks fourth month of back to back decreases. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for July also disappointed when it dropped to 50.4 from 52.0 after gradually declining for four months to the lowest print since September 2009.
Positive news came out of the UK as June Retail Sales recovered to 0.7%. Last month was revised slightly up to -1.3%. It is not all encouraging though. The report shows that high prices caused the largest yearly fall in food stores sales since 1988.
The New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with Unemployment Claims that are still expected above 400K. More important Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for July is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to increase to 3.4 from previous drop to -7.7 which was the first negative print since September 2010.
Traders should also note that at 10:00 am ET Fed Chairman Bernanke starts his testimony in Washington DC.
Both double trades in EURUSD & GBPUSD were executed at their respective limits; See detail here of these FOUR trades: http://tinyurl.com/ 3sqspbx
Click here to get your Free 1-week trial: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
More USD Losses, US Home Sales, BoC Report Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2551
July 20, 2011 07:46 ET :
USD is lower across the board as risk appetite improved on hopes that the US debt ceiling and the Greek debt problems will be solved. German PPI comes as expected. Market turns to US Existing Home sales and Bank of Canadas Monetary Policy report.
Euro inches higher against many currencies despite German chancellor Angela Merkel warning against being overly optimistic ahead of Thursdays summit. If the US agrees on its debt ceiling issue and if the Eurozone summit fails to deliver a solution for Greece then the Euro would face a significant risk of a selloff.
Euro is 8 pips away from the highest of our long targets from Tuesday's Premium trades. Our S&P500 longs are also on their way of being hit. Here the direct link to yesterday's Premium Intermarket Insights http://tinyurl.com/ 3d8m3rd
Some European banks are already protesting against the idea of a bank tax revealed in the policy paper that outlines various solutions to the Greek debt problem. Banks claim that if the tax is levied it would punish institutions that are not exposed to Greece and threaten to file lawsuits should the tax be imposed on them.
On the data front, German PPI June came out in line with expectations at 0.1%, slightly higher than previous unchanged print.
New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with May Canadian Wholesale Sales. Analysts are expecting an improvement to 0.2% from previous -0.1%. CAD traders should also pay attention at 10:30 am when Bank of Canada releases its Monetary Policy Report and then also at 11:15 am ET when BoC holds press conference.
US June Existing home sales are due at 10:00 am ET. They are expected to increase to 4.92M from 4.81M. Even though the sales have somewhat improved over the past year, they continue to be well below levels seen before the financial crisis. The present foreclosure rate is still high so it will likely take more time before the housing market starts to improve.
Somewhat unusually, at 10:00 am ET Eurostat releases its Eurozone Consumer Confidence for July. The confidence is expected stay at -10 which is a zone where confidence has stayed over the past 10 months.
Patrik Urban
July 20, 2011 07:46 ET :
USD is lower across the board as risk appetite improved on hopes that the US debt ceiling and the Greek debt problems will be solved. German PPI comes as expected. Market turns to US Existing Home sales and Bank of Canadas Monetary Policy report.
Euro inches higher against many currencies despite German chancellor Angela Merkel warning against being overly optimistic ahead of Thursdays summit. If the US agrees on its debt ceiling issue and if the Eurozone summit fails to deliver a solution for Greece then the Euro would face a significant risk of a selloff.
Euro is 8 pips away from the highest of our long targets from Tuesday's Premium trades. Our S&P500 longs are also on their way of being hit. Here the direct link to yesterday's Premium Intermarket Insights http://tinyurl.com/ 3d8m3rd
Some European banks are already protesting against the idea of a bank tax revealed in the policy paper that outlines various solutions to the Greek debt problem. Banks claim that if the tax is levied it would punish institutions that are not exposed to Greece and threaten to file lawsuits should the tax be imposed on them.
On the data front, German PPI June came out in line with expectations at 0.1%, slightly higher than previous unchanged print.
New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with May Canadian Wholesale Sales. Analysts are expecting an improvement to 0.2% from previous -0.1%. CAD traders should also pay attention at 10:30 am when Bank of Canada releases its Monetary Policy Report and then also at 11:15 am ET when BoC holds press conference.
US June Existing home sales are due at 10:00 am ET. They are expected to increase to 4.92M from 4.81M. Even though the sales have somewhat improved over the past year, they continue to be well below levels seen before the financial crisis. The present foreclosure rate is still high so it will likely take more time before the housing market starts to improve.
Somewhat unusually, at 10:00 am ET Eurostat releases its Eurozone Consumer Confidence for July. The confidence is expected stay at -10 which is a zone where confidence has stayed over the past 10 months.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Euro Ignores disappointing ZEW, Onto BoC
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2547
July 19, 2011 07:53 ET :
Eurozone Policy Paper Boosts Sentiment; Onto BoC Rate Announcement
USD drops amid improving sentiment based on Eurozone policy paper. Euro ignores disappointing German and Eurozone ZEW indices. Markets awaits BoC rate decision and US housing data.
USD started to weaken across the board even before London traders got to their desks. The much improved sentiment can be attributed to a policy paper that describes three main options how to tackle the Greek problem. The options range from debt buyback with credit enhancements to taxing the banking sector with no buybacks. Also included is the French plan that would lower bond rates while extending maturities. As there are various options on the table, there are growing chances that Eurozone leaders will reach an agreement in Thursdays summit.
On the data front, German ZEW Economic Sentiment index dropped to -15.1 in July from Junes -9 and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -7 from previous -5.9.
Gold pulled back slightly off the new highs but continues to trade above $1600. Until Thursdays meeting or more importantly until the US debt ceiling situation is resolved gold is likely to continue ralling.
New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Leading Indicators index for June which is expected to improve to 1.2% from previous 1.0%. The reaction is likely to be muted as CAD traders will wait for the much more important Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:00 am ET. Interest rates are expected stay where they have been since September 2010 at 1.0%.
Both CPI and core CPI have been gradually increasing and jumped higher last month. The labor market has been improving steadily, albeit at a slow rate. Even though the interest rate will likely stay the same today, the CAD could rally on the accompanying BoC rate statement that could signal upcoming interest rate increases.
News from the US include housing data released at 8:30 am ET. Building Permits are expected to reach 0.61M, the same result as a month earlier. Analysts expect the Housing Starts to improve to 0.58M from previous 0.56M.
Patrik Urban
July 19, 2011 07:53 ET :
Eurozone Policy Paper Boosts Sentiment; Onto BoC Rate Announcement
USD drops amid improving sentiment based on Eurozone policy paper. Euro ignores disappointing German and Eurozone ZEW indices. Markets awaits BoC rate decision and US housing data.
USD started to weaken across the board even before London traders got to their desks. The much improved sentiment can be attributed to a policy paper that describes three main options how to tackle the Greek problem. The options range from debt buyback with credit enhancements to taxing the banking sector with no buybacks. Also included is the French plan that would lower bond rates while extending maturities. As there are various options on the table, there are growing chances that Eurozone leaders will reach an agreement in Thursdays summit.
On the data front, German ZEW Economic Sentiment index dropped to -15.1 in July from Junes -9 and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -7 from previous -5.9.
Gold pulled back slightly off the new highs but continues to trade above $1600. Until Thursdays meeting or more importantly until the US debt ceiling situation is resolved gold is likely to continue ralling.
New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Leading Indicators index for June which is expected to improve to 1.2% from previous 1.0%. The reaction is likely to be muted as CAD traders will wait for the much more important Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:00 am ET. Interest rates are expected stay where they have been since September 2010 at 1.0%.
Both CPI and core CPI have been gradually increasing and jumped higher last month. The labor market has been improving steadily, albeit at a slow rate. Even though the interest rate will likely stay the same today, the CAD could rally on the accompanying BoC rate statement that could signal upcoming interest rate increases.
News from the US include housing data released at 8:30 am ET. Building Permits are expected to reach 0.61M, the same result as a month earlier. Analysts expect the Housing Starts to improve to 0.58M from previous 0.56M.
Patrik Urban
Monday, July 18, 2011
Euro Drops to 1.40, Credit Rating Agencies Reiterate on US
http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?h2543
July 18, 2011 10:34 ET :
USD is higher against most currency pairs. Euro drops back to 1.40, relief short covering rally may come on Thursday. Risk aversion pushes EURCHF to new all time low. See link to latest Premium Trades below.
Euro dropped about 130 points since Asian open and trades right above the 1.40 figure. It is hard to imagine any meaningful recovery without a fundamental catalyst. The catalyst could be the meeting of Euro zone leaders on Thursday when they plan to reach an agreement on the second bailout for Greece.
The severity of the current situation in Europe is evidenced by Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish and Italian five year credit default swaps reaching their respective record highs.
The prevalent risk aversion continues to support the CHF as EURCHF drops to new all time low at 1.1374. USDCHF fell to 0.8045 but has since recovered and trades above Asian session opening levels. While Swiss exporters hurt, large companies plan to capitalize on the currency strength. As WSJ reports, the Francs strength might bring a wave of mergers and acquisitions, especially in the pharmaceutical, food and energy sectors.
Our MONDAY PREMIUM TRADES are here http://tinyurl.com/ 3tk7wjr . To become a member, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
US TIC Long-Term Purchases of US securities in May tumbled to $23.6 bln from $30.6 bln (vs prev $40 bln)
US National Association of Home Builders's Housing Market Index rose to 15 in July from June's 15
Patrik Urban
July 18, 2011 10:34 ET :
USD is higher against most currency pairs. Euro drops back to 1.40, relief short covering rally may come on Thursday. Risk aversion pushes EURCHF to new all time low. See link to latest Premium Trades below.
Euro dropped about 130 points since Asian open and trades right above the 1.40 figure. It is hard to imagine any meaningful recovery without a fundamental catalyst. The catalyst could be the meeting of Euro zone leaders on Thursday when they plan to reach an agreement on the second bailout for Greece.
The severity of the current situation in Europe is evidenced by Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish and Italian five year credit default swaps reaching their respective record highs.
The prevalent risk aversion continues to support the CHF as EURCHF drops to new all time low at 1.1374. USDCHF fell to 0.8045 but has since recovered and trades above Asian session opening levels. While Swiss exporters hurt, large companies plan to capitalize on the currency strength. As WSJ reports, the Francs strength might bring a wave of mergers and acquisitions, especially in the pharmaceutical, food and energy sectors.
Our MONDAY PREMIUM TRADES are here http://tinyurl.com/ 3tk7wjr . To become a member, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
US TIC Long-Term Purchases of US securities in May tumbled to $23.6 bln from $30.6 bln (vs prev $40 bln)
US National Association of Home Builders's Housing Market Index rose to 15 in July from June's 15
Patrik Urban
FXstreet.cz - forex komentář Patrika Urbana 18.7.2011
Forex - video komentář Patrika Urbana 18.7.2011 společnosti FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Friday, July 15, 2011
Price Consolidation Ahead of Stress Test; US Inflation and Manufacturing Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2540
July 15, 2011 08:18 ET :
USD is slightly weaker since London open. S&P placed the US rating on
negative watch. Euro zone trade balance narrowed. Focus turns to
European Bank Stress test and later to US inflation, manufacturing,
industrial data.
USD is on the weaker side after S&P placed the US credit rating on
negative watch. S&P stated that there is a 50% chance of US losing its
AAA rating within 90 days. The rating agency noted that the risk of
default is still small but it is increasing due to political
stalemate.
On the data front, Euro zone trade balance has narrowed to EUR -0.6
bln from previous EUR -2.5 bln. Italian Trade deficit also came out
narrower than expected at EUR -2.41 bln from previous EUR -2.5 bln.
A significant risk factor today is the release of the results of
European bank stress test. Results should be published in early NY
afternoon (expected at 16:00 GMT). As previously noted, 26 out of 91
banks are expected to fail the test.
New York session is filled with news announcements today. June CPI is
expected to turn negative and print -0.1% (3.6% y/y). Core is expected
to increase by 0.2% (1.6% y/y). The Empire State Manufacturing index
is expected to recover to 4.5 from previous drop to -7.8. The
Industrial production is also expected to improve to 0.4% from 0.1%.
UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 9:55 am ET and it is expected
to improve to 72.5 from previous fall to 71.5.
As we learned from Bernankes testimony on Wednesday, the FED is
concerned about slowing economy and reemergence of deflation. Negative
CPI print and disappointing manufacturing activity would increase the
likelihood of protracted slowdown and the need for an additional QE.
At the same time, Ben Bernanke on Thursday said that at this point the
Fed was not ready to pursue QE3.
See our Friday morning PREMIUM TRADES w/ 2 new ones on USDJPY here: http://tinyurl.com/ 64k24pc
NON-members CLICK HERE to JOIN http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
July 15, 2011 08:18 ET :
USD is slightly weaker since London open. S&P placed the US rating on
negative watch. Euro zone trade balance narrowed. Focus turns to
European Bank Stress test and later to US inflation, manufacturing,
industrial data.
USD is on the weaker side after S&P placed the US credit rating on
negative watch. S&P stated that there is a 50% chance of US losing its
AAA rating within 90 days. The rating agency noted that the risk of
default is still small but it is increasing due to political
stalemate.
On the data front, Euro zone trade balance has narrowed to EUR -0.6
bln from previous EUR -2.5 bln. Italian Trade deficit also came out
narrower than expected at EUR -2.41 bln from previous EUR -2.5 bln.
A significant risk factor today is the release of the results of
European bank stress test. Results should be published in early NY
afternoon (expected at 16:00 GMT). As previously noted, 26 out of 91
banks are expected to fail the test.
New York session is filled with news announcements today. June CPI is
expected to turn negative and print -0.1% (3.6% y/y). Core is expected
to increase by 0.2% (1.6% y/y). The Empire State Manufacturing index
is expected to recover to 4.5 from previous drop to -7.8. The
Industrial production is also expected to improve to 0.4% from 0.1%.
UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 9:55 am ET and it is expected
to improve to 72.5 from previous fall to 71.5.
As we learned from Bernankes testimony on Wednesday, the FED is
concerned about slowing economy and reemergence of deflation. Negative
CPI print and disappointing manufacturing activity would increase the
likelihood of protracted slowdown and the need for an additional QE.
At the same time, Ben Bernanke on Thursday said that at this point the
Fed was not ready to pursue QE3.
See our Friday morning PREMIUM TRADES w/ 2 new ones on USDJPY here: http://tinyurl.com/ 64k24pc
NON-members CLICK HERE to JOIN http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Euro Falls Despite Successful Italian Bond Auction; Retail Sales Are Next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2536
July 14, 2011 08:59 ET :
The price action over the past two sessions has been choppy. Since
London open, the greenback was able to recover a large portion of
earlier losses. Series of downgrades continues. Italian debt auction
went reasonably well. Market turns to US Retail Sales.
After the huge USD selloff yesterday, on the back of acknowledged
possibility of QE3, the price is consolidating with slight USD
positive bias. Moodys downgrade of government guaranteed debt of five
Irish banks is putting some pressure back on the Euro. At the same
time, the feared Italian debt auction went rather well. Italy
successfully sold almost EUR 5 bln in debt but it will have to pay the
highest yield on record for the 15 year and even the 5 year reached a
yield not seen since 2008.
On the data front, Euro zone June CPI came out in line with
expectations at 2.7% y/y and core CPI printed 1.6% slightly higher
than May reading of 1.5%.
New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with June Retail sales that are
expected to decrease by -0.1% after dropping to -0.2% in May. Last
month was the first time since August 2010 that retail sales actually
contracted on monthly basis. Core Retail Sales are expected to grow by
0.1% from previous 0.3%.
The unemployment claims are expected at 413K and as long as we do not
see a move below 400K it is hard to imagine the economy improving.
Core PPI is expected to increase 0.2% in June.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke continues his testimony in Washington DC at
10:00 am ET. Yesterdays testimony sent USD sharply lower on remarks
that additional monetary stimulus might be needed should deflationary
risks reemerge. It is unlikely that todays testimony or the QA
session should reveal something new so the impact should be limited.
Patrik Urban
July 14, 2011 08:59 ET :
The price action over the past two sessions has been choppy. Since
London open, the greenback was able to recover a large portion of
earlier losses. Series of downgrades continues. Italian debt auction
went reasonably well. Market turns to US Retail Sales.
After the huge USD selloff yesterday, on the back of acknowledged
possibility of QE3, the price is consolidating with slight USD
positive bias. Moodys downgrade of government guaranteed debt of five
Irish banks is putting some pressure back on the Euro. At the same
time, the feared Italian debt auction went rather well. Italy
successfully sold almost EUR 5 bln in debt but it will have to pay the
highest yield on record for the 15 year and even the 5 year reached a
yield not seen since 2008.
On the data front, Euro zone June CPI came out in line with
expectations at 2.7% y/y and core CPI printed 1.6% slightly higher
than May reading of 1.5%.
New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with June Retail sales that are
expected to decrease by -0.1% after dropping to -0.2% in May. Last
month was the first time since August 2010 that retail sales actually
contracted on monthly basis. Core Retail Sales are expected to grow by
0.1% from previous 0.3%.
The unemployment claims are expected at 413K and as long as we do not
see a move below 400K it is hard to imagine the economy improving.
Core PPI is expected to increase 0.2% in June.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke continues his testimony in Washington DC at
10:00 am ET. Yesterdays testimony sent USD sharply lower on remarks
that additional monetary stimulus might be needed should deflationary
risks reemerge. It is unlikely that todays testimony or the QA
session should reveal something new so the impact should be limited.
Patrik Urban
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Euro Short Covering Continues; Bernanke Testifies Before the House
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2533
July 13, 2011 09:06 ET :
The greenback has been weakening since the London session started.
Euro short covering rally continues and reaches above 1.4100 despite
weaker data. Germany and Switzerland show lower inflation. UK labor
data was slightly worse. Bernanke reports to the House of
Representatives.
Equities, precious metals and high yielding currencies are off their
respective yesterdays lows. Euro is the relative strength winner as
short covering rally continues supported by slightly tighter
Italian-German 10 year spread. Euro ignored weaker May Industrial
Production that came out at 0.1% (0.5% exp.) from previous 0.2%
There were interesting developments on the inflation front. After
yesterdays lower than expected consumer inflation data from the UK,
German wholesale prices dropped in June -0.6% from a steady reading
month earlier (lowest print since 4/2009). Swiss PPI also showed lower
reading when it printed -0.5% from previous -0.2% (lowest since
8/2010).
News from the UK point to a weaker labor market as the Claimant Count
Change for June showed fourth back to back increase. The number of
people claiming benefits increased to 24.5K from 22.5K. The
unemployment rate kept steady at 7.7%.
New York session has only a few items that traders should watch out
for. At 10:00 am ET FED Chairman Bernanke delivers Semi-Annual
Monetary Policy Report and Federal budget balance is due at 2:00 pm
ET.
Members of the FOMC have voiced different views and concerns. Many
analysts have criticized the FED for not providing any specific
details about the exit strategy. Ben Bernanke will have the
opportunity to provide unifying view and explain when the Fed intends
to start reducing its treasury holdings. Yesterdays FOMC minutes
provided information about the steps the FED will take. Now, the
market will want to learn when it will take them.
The possibility of another round of QE was discussed during the last
FOMC meeting. USD bulls should watch carefully for any hints of QE as
the FOMC met before last weeks disastrous NFP reading.
See our LATEST PREMIUM trade issued titled "Fresh Double EURUSD Trade" http://tinyurl.com/ 5shvdbw To become a member, please a click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
July 13, 2011 09:06 ET :
The greenback has been weakening since the London session started.
Euro short covering rally continues and reaches above 1.4100 despite
weaker data. Germany and Switzerland show lower inflation. UK labor
data was slightly worse. Bernanke reports to the House of
Representatives.
Equities, precious metals and high yielding currencies are off their
respective yesterdays lows. Euro is the relative strength winner as
short covering rally continues supported by slightly tighter
Italian-German 10 year spread. Euro ignored weaker May Industrial
Production that came out at 0.1% (0.5% exp.) from previous 0.2%
There were interesting developments on the inflation front. After
yesterdays lower than expected consumer inflation data from the UK,
German wholesale prices dropped in June -0.6% from a steady reading
month earlier (lowest print since 4/2009). Swiss PPI also showed lower
reading when it printed -0.5% from previous -0.2% (lowest since
8/2010).
News from the UK point to a weaker labor market as the Claimant Count
Change for June showed fourth back to back increase. The number of
people claiming benefits increased to 24.5K from 22.5K. The
unemployment rate kept steady at 7.7%.
New York session has only a few items that traders should watch out
for. At 10:00 am ET FED Chairman Bernanke delivers Semi-Annual
Monetary Policy Report and Federal budget balance is due at 2:00 pm
ET.
Members of the FOMC have voiced different views and concerns. Many
analysts have criticized the FED for not providing any specific
details about the exit strategy. Ben Bernanke will have the
opportunity to provide unifying view and explain when the Fed intends
to start reducing its treasury holdings. Yesterdays FOMC minutes
provided information about the steps the FED will take. Now, the
market will want to learn when it will take them.
The possibility of another round of QE was discussed during the last
FOMC meeting. USD bulls should watch carefully for any hints of QE as
the FOMC met before last weeks disastrous NFP reading.
See our LATEST PREMIUM trade issued titled "Fresh Double EURUSD Trade" http://tinyurl.com/ 5shvdbw To become a member, please a click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
UK CPI Lower, Market Turns To US Trade Balance
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2530
July 12, 2011 08:05 ET : Risk Off Environment Continues; UK CPI Lower; Market Turns To Trade Balance Data. Also see our LATEST TRADES below.
The Asian session saw a distinctly risk off environment with strong JPY, CHF and USD. Since London open markets have stabilized and trade slightly off their respective lows. UK CPI comes lower than expected. Eurogroup meeting fails to inspire. Market turns to US and Canadian trade balance data and to the latest FOMC minutes.
The Eurogroup meeting failed to calm the markets and inspire confidence. The major issue is that Euro zone leaders did not agree on any specific details. There was a talk that the EFSF would be expanded, maturities would be lengthened and interest rates would be lowered. All options are still on the table but no commitments were made.
Other troubling news include the Bank of Portugal downgrading its economic outlook stating that austerity measures will have a severe impact on growth and employment and also news printed in Spanish newspaper ABC that said that six Spanish bank will fail the Bank Stress Test.
Over the last few sessions markets have been focusing on Italy. The 100+ point bounce in EURUSD can be attributed to news that the Italian opposition calls for the approval of austerity measures in Senate by Thursday. Rare gesture of unity indeed.
On data front, UK June CPI surprised with a lower print. On monthly basis CPI printed -0.1% vs. +0.2% which translates to 4.2% y/y from last 4.5%. GBPUSD weakened significantly after the release of this news.
New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with May Current Account balance data for Canada and the US. Canadian Trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly to CAD 0.8bln from previous 0.9bln. The deficit has been widening each month over the past four months.
Majority of traders are likely to concentrate on trade balance of the US. May deficit is expected to increase only slightly to USD 44.1 bln from previous USD 43.7 bln. Last Saturday Chinese trade balance showed surplus that was much larger than expected (USD 22.3bln vs. exp. USD 14.1bln) so it is likely that US trade deficit will widen to reflect this.
See our LATEST PREMIUM trade issued today titled "Fresh Double EURUSD Trade" http://tinyurl.com/ 5shvdbw To become a member, please a click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
FOMC minutes from June meeting are due at 2:00 pm ET. The market will search for clues regarding monetary policy and the possibility of an additional round of QE or other type of easing (rate caps on 2-3 year or 10 year bond). The market will probably not react much to this event as most details were already covered in the press conference right after the rate decision.
Patrik Urban
July 12, 2011 08:05 ET : Risk Off Environment Continues; UK CPI Lower; Market Turns To Trade Balance Data. Also see our LATEST TRADES below.
The Asian session saw a distinctly risk off environment with strong JPY, CHF and USD. Since London open markets have stabilized and trade slightly off their respective lows. UK CPI comes lower than expected. Eurogroup meeting fails to inspire. Market turns to US and Canadian trade balance data and to the latest FOMC minutes.
The Eurogroup meeting failed to calm the markets and inspire confidence. The major issue is that Euro zone leaders did not agree on any specific details. There was a talk that the EFSF would be expanded, maturities would be lengthened and interest rates would be lowered. All options are still on the table but no commitments were made.
Other troubling news include the Bank of Portugal downgrading its economic outlook stating that austerity measures will have a severe impact on growth and employment and also news printed in Spanish newspaper ABC that said that six Spanish bank will fail the Bank Stress Test.
Over the last few sessions markets have been focusing on Italy. The 100+ point bounce in EURUSD can be attributed to news that the Italian opposition calls for the approval of austerity measures in Senate by Thursday. Rare gesture of unity indeed.
On data front, UK June CPI surprised with a lower print. On monthly basis CPI printed -0.1% vs. +0.2% which translates to 4.2% y/y from last 4.5%. GBPUSD weakened significantly after the release of this news.
New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with May Current Account balance data for Canada and the US. Canadian Trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly to CAD 0.8bln from previous 0.9bln. The deficit has been widening each month over the past four months.
Majority of traders are likely to concentrate on trade balance of the US. May deficit is expected to increase only slightly to USD 44.1 bln from previous USD 43.7 bln. Last Saturday Chinese trade balance showed surplus that was much larger than expected (USD 22.3bln vs. exp. USD 14.1bln) so it is likely that US trade deficit will widen to reflect this.
See our LATEST PREMIUM trade issued today titled "Fresh Double EURUSD Trade" http://tinyurl.com/ 5shvdbw To become a member, please a click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
FOMC minutes from June meeting are due at 2:00 pm ET. The market will search for clues regarding monetary policy and the possibility of an additional round of QE or other type of easing (rate caps on 2-3 year or 10 year bond). The market will probably not react much to this event as most details were already covered in the press conference right after the rate decision.
Patrik Urban
Monday, July 11, 2011
EUR Selloff Continues Amid Growing Concerns
Risk is off since London traders got to their desks. Euro has been steadily declining since Asian session as a reaction to EU leaders meeting. Market waits for Canadian data.
Euro has declined and trades in the lower end of the recent trading range just below 1.4100. Top European leaders meet in Brussels today to discuss details of Greek financial package and concerns that contagion could spread to Italy as Italian equities fell dramatically last week and German/Italian bond spread continues to widen.
German newspaper Handelsblatt reports that the ECB reached to five private financial institutions for advice on how to act in case of a sovereign default. As if this news was not bad enough for the Euro, the Financial Times printed an article that claims that EU leaders will now accept that Greece defaults at least on some of its debt. It will be interesting to watch how exactly will the French suggestion that banks roll Greek debt to longer maturities come into play considering the recent developments.
French Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production came out better than expected (2.0% from previous -0.5% and 1.5% from previous 0.1% respectively) but could not change the direction of the Euro as other news were more relevant.
Only two data releases will be published during the New York session today. At 8:15 am ET Canadian Housing Starts for June are due and are expected to reach 182K slightly lower compared to previous 184K. Later at 10:30 am ET Bank of Canada releases its quarterly Business Outlook Survey that could provide important insights regarding future changes in monetary policy. Bank of Canada will announce its next rate decision on July 19th.
Patrik Urban
Euro has declined and trades in the lower end of the recent trading range just below 1.4100. Top European leaders meet in Brussels today to discuss details of Greek financial package and concerns that contagion could spread to Italy as Italian equities fell dramatically last week and German/Italian bond spread continues to widen.
German newspaper Handelsblatt reports that the ECB reached to five private financial institutions for advice on how to act in case of a sovereign default. As if this news was not bad enough for the Euro, the Financial Times printed an article that claims that EU leaders will now accept that Greece defaults at least on some of its debt. It will be interesting to watch how exactly will the French suggestion that banks roll Greek debt to longer maturities come into play considering the recent developments.
French Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production came out better than expected (2.0% from previous -0.5% and 1.5% from previous 0.1% respectively) but could not change the direction of the Euro as other news were more relevant.
Only two data releases will be published during the New York session today. At 8:15 am ET Canadian Housing Starts for June are due and are expected to reach 182K slightly lower compared to previous 184K. Later at 10:30 am ET Bank of Canada releases its quarterly Business Outlook Survey that could provide important insights regarding future changes in monetary policy. Bank of Canada will announce its next rate decision on July 19th.
Patrik Urban
Friday, July 8, 2011
Weak Euro Reaches Yesterday’s Lows; Focus Turns To NFP
USD trades with an upward bias since London open. Euro weakened amid rumors regarding the European bank stress test. UK PPI input prices increase again. Canadian labor market proved strong.
Euro lost all yesterday’s post ECB press conference gains and reached yesterday’s lows at 4228. The fall is blamed on rumors regarding the Bank Stress Test that will be published next week. The document prepared for finance ministers states that banks that fail the test will have till September to repair its balance sheets. If no plan is presented then the government will take steps to ensure the banks financial stability. Moody’s estimates that 26 out of 91 banks could fail the test.
Fear seems to be spreading even to Italy as Italian/German bond spreads reached the highest level since the Euro was introduced. Italian 5 year CDS seen rising too.
June PPI input prices in the UK increased by 0.4% after falling -1.7% a month earlier and reached 17% y/y. Output PPI recorded lowest print since September 2010, +0.1% but increased on yearly basis to 5.7%.
Canadian labor market showed another improvement today when employment increased by 28.4K much higher than expected 13.8K and even higher then previous 22.3K. The unemployment rate has been gradually decreasing since Q3 2009 and stayed steady at 7.4%.
New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with highly anticipated labor market data. Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to reach 87K from previous drop to 54K. Unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 9.1% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase from 1.8% to 1.9% on a yearly basis.
Two weeks ago the Fed acknowledged that growth and labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated and had to revise its outlook for growth and employment for 2011-2013. Healthy labor market is obviously critical component of a successful recovery. Today, market participants will learn whether the US economy is on the right track to recovery and the current decline is indeed temporary, as Fed believes, or whether the labor market and consequently the economy itself will continue to deteriorate.
Patrik Urban
Euro lost all yesterday’s post ECB press conference gains and reached yesterday’s lows at 4228. The fall is blamed on rumors regarding the Bank Stress Test that will be published next week. The document prepared for finance ministers states that banks that fail the test will have till September to repair its balance sheets. If no plan is presented then the government will take steps to ensure the banks financial stability. Moody’s estimates that 26 out of 91 banks could fail the test.
Fear seems to be spreading even to Italy as Italian/German bond spreads reached the highest level since the Euro was introduced. Italian 5 year CDS seen rising too.
June PPI input prices in the UK increased by 0.4% after falling -1.7% a month earlier and reached 17% y/y. Output PPI recorded lowest print since September 2010, +0.1% but increased on yearly basis to 5.7%.
Canadian labor market showed another improvement today when employment increased by 28.4K much higher than expected 13.8K and even higher then previous 22.3K. The unemployment rate has been gradually decreasing since Q3 2009 and stayed steady at 7.4%.
New York session starts at 8:30 am ET with highly anticipated labor market data. Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to reach 87K from previous drop to 54K. Unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 9.1% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase from 1.8% to 1.9% on a yearly basis.
Two weeks ago the Fed acknowledged that growth and labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated and had to revise its outlook for growth and employment for 2011-2013. Healthy labor market is obviously critical component of a successful recovery. Today, market participants will learn whether the US economy is on the right track to recovery and the current decline is indeed temporary, as Fed believes, or whether the labor market and consequently the economy itself will continue to deteriorate.
Patrik Urban
Thursday, July 7, 2011
BoE holds rates steady, ECB raises by 25bp; Focus on Trichet’s press conference
USD continues to strengthen against most currencies. As rate announcements steal the show EUR and GBP ignore positive data. BoE holds rates and votes for no new QE, ECB raises by 25bp. Expect high volatility during ECB press conference.
Euro still suffers the impact of Portuguese mutlinotch downgrade. Portuguese bonds spreads continue to increase at incredibly rapid pace and reached over 1000 bp. Portuguese CDS rose over 20% over the past few trading sessions.
As the FX market turned focus to rate announcements and ECB’s press conference, economic data releases had only limited impact. UK Manufacturing Production showed volatile prints over the past two months. First if fell by 1.9% which was the worst reading since 10/2009 and then in May it rose by 1.8% which is the best print since June 2010. UK industrial production also improved significantly to 0.9% from previous -1.7%. German Industrial Production in May improved by 1.2% from previous -0.8%.
The BoE kept rates steady at 0.5% and voted to keep Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at GBP 200 bln. As the economy deteriorates, some members of MPC started to mention the possibility of further quantitative easing should situation warrant it. As long as the possibility of new QE exists the Sterling will be under pressure which is intensified by weakening expectations of rate increases. ECB raised rates by 25bp from 1.25% to 1.50% as has been widely expected.
The New York session starts at 8:15 am ET with ADP employment report. Analysts expect an increase to 67K from previous print of 38K. Even if ADP improves a bit, the deterioration since March has been significant.
Market reaction to ADP is likely to be limited as traders will wait for the highly anticipated ECB press conference that starts at 8:30 am ET. This time around, the attention may shift to sovereign debt concerns rather than being solely focused on the monetary policy outlook. J. C. Trichet will prefer to keep more space for future maneuvering so he is somewhat unlikely to use the phrase “strong vigilance on inflation” that often predicates a rate increase in the upcoming month.
Patrik Urban
Euro still suffers the impact of Portuguese mutlinotch downgrade. Portuguese bonds spreads continue to increase at incredibly rapid pace and reached over 1000 bp. Portuguese CDS rose over 20% over the past few trading sessions.
As the FX market turned focus to rate announcements and ECB’s press conference, economic data releases had only limited impact. UK Manufacturing Production showed volatile prints over the past two months. First if fell by 1.9% which was the worst reading since 10/2009 and then in May it rose by 1.8% which is the best print since June 2010. UK industrial production also improved significantly to 0.9% from previous -1.7%. German Industrial Production in May improved by 1.2% from previous -0.8%.
The BoE kept rates steady at 0.5% and voted to keep Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at GBP 200 bln. As the economy deteriorates, some members of MPC started to mention the possibility of further quantitative easing should situation warrant it. As long as the possibility of new QE exists the Sterling will be under pressure which is intensified by weakening expectations of rate increases. ECB raised rates by 25bp from 1.25% to 1.50% as has been widely expected.
The New York session starts at 8:15 am ET with ADP employment report. Analysts expect an increase to 67K from previous print of 38K. Even if ADP improves a bit, the deterioration since March has been significant.
Market reaction to ADP is likely to be limited as traders will wait for the highly anticipated ECB press conference that starts at 8:30 am ET. This time around, the attention may shift to sovereign debt concerns rather than being solely focused on the monetary policy outlook. J. C. Trichet will prefer to keep more space for future maneuvering so he is somewhat unlikely to use the phrase “strong vigilance on inflation” that often predicates a rate increase in the upcoming month.
Patrik Urban
FXstreet.cz - forex komentář Patrika Urbana 11.7.2011
Forex - video komentář Patrika Urbana 11.7.2011 společnosti FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
GBP and EUR ignore positive data; PBoC raises rates; ISM services is next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2517
July 6, 2011 08:49 ET : USD started to gain yesterday on the news of Portuguese multinotch downgrade by Moodys. This trend has continued throughout Asia and London and continues into New York morning. PboC increases interest rates, GBP and EUR ignore positive data. Focus turns to ISM services PMI.
Chinese central bank hiked interest rates 25 basis points to 6.56% today, ahead of next weeks CPI data. This is already a third hike this year confirming official concerns over increasing inflation. Even though todays rate increase does not come as a surprise, the reaction is fairly typical as the AUD is hit the hardest.
As a consequence of Moodys downgrade, periphery bonds spreads continue to widen which is adding pressure on the already falling Euro. Portuguese-German spread on the 10 year bond reached its highest level since Euro was introduced, over 1046 bps.
UK mortgage lender Halifax reported that House Price Index rose 1.2% in June, significantly higher than Mays 0.4% and German Manufacturing Orders for May reached 1.8% while analysts expected -0.5%. Neither of these releases was able to improve the risk off sentiment.
New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Building Permits for May. Analysts expect a significant increase to 5.1% from the previous, shockingly bad print of -21.1%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June is due at 10:00 am ET and market expects a slight decrease to 53.9 from previous 54.6.
Patrik Urban
July 6, 2011 08:49 ET : USD started to gain yesterday on the news of Portuguese multinotch downgrade by Moodys. This trend has continued throughout Asia and London and continues into New York morning. PboC increases interest rates, GBP and EUR ignore positive data. Focus turns to ISM services PMI.
Chinese central bank hiked interest rates 25 basis points to 6.56% today, ahead of next weeks CPI data. This is already a third hike this year confirming official concerns over increasing inflation. Even though todays rate increase does not come as a surprise, the reaction is fairly typical as the AUD is hit the hardest.
As a consequence of Moodys downgrade, periphery bonds spreads continue to widen which is adding pressure on the already falling Euro. Portuguese-German spread on the 10 year bond reached its highest level since Euro was introduced, over 1046 bps.
UK mortgage lender Halifax reported that House Price Index rose 1.2% in June, significantly higher than Mays 0.4% and German Manufacturing Orders for May reached 1.8% while analysts expected -0.5%. Neither of these releases was able to improve the risk off sentiment.
New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Building Permits for May. Analysts expect a significant increase to 5.1% from the previous, shockingly bad print of -21.1%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June is due at 10:00 am ET and market expects a slight decrease to 53.9 from previous 54.6.
Patrik Urban
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
European Data Revised Down; GBP Relief Rally; Focus Turns To US Factory Orders
USD is mixed since London open. It trades little changed against EUR, AUD, NZD and JPY and weaker against GBP and CHF. GBP is rallying on a relief that PMI services came out marginally higher and CHF is stronger after a series of disappointing data releases from the Euro zone.
During the Asian session, RBA kept rates as expected at 4.75%. In the accompanying statement RBA said that it deems monetary policy appropriate and that it expects CPI to be close to their target over the next year. It seems that as long as CPI does not inch higher, RBA may keep rates unchanged for a period of time.
GBP is rallying across the board in a relief rally after Services PMI for June increased slightly to 53.9 from 53.8. Data from the UK was mostly disappointing over the past few weeks and sentiment towards the GBP was negative. As long as there is a talk about the possibility of more QE in the UK, it is unlikely that GBP would be able to stage any meaningful recovery.
Euro zone data came out lower than expected. German PMI services were revised down to 56.7 from 58.3 and Euro zone PMI Services were revised to 53.7 from 54.2 which is the fourth back to back decrease and worst print since November 2010. Euro zone Retail Sales for May printed -1.1% from previous +0.7% which translates to -1.9% on a year to year basis.
In response to the disappointing Euro zone data, the CHF started to appreciate against the EUR. EURCHF fell about 100 points to 1.2204 which helped to pull USDCHF back down to 0.8427.
New York session has only one significant news release. US Factory Orders for May are due at 10:00 am ET and are expected to increase sharply to 1.1% from a previous drop of -1.2%. Durable Goods released at the end of June surprised to the upside and even experienced a positive revision for the previous month. Durable goods make up more than half of factory orders so a case can be made that Factory Orders will in fact increase sharply.
Patrik Urban
During the Asian session, RBA kept rates as expected at 4.75%. In the accompanying statement RBA said that it deems monetary policy appropriate and that it expects CPI to be close to their target over the next year. It seems that as long as CPI does not inch higher, RBA may keep rates unchanged for a period of time.
GBP is rallying across the board in a relief rally after Services PMI for June increased slightly to 53.9 from 53.8. Data from the UK was mostly disappointing over the past few weeks and sentiment towards the GBP was negative. As long as there is a talk about the possibility of more QE in the UK, it is unlikely that GBP would be able to stage any meaningful recovery.
Euro zone data came out lower than expected. German PMI services were revised down to 56.7 from 58.3 and Euro zone PMI Services were revised to 53.7 from 54.2 which is the fourth back to back decrease and worst print since November 2010. Euro zone Retail Sales for May printed -1.1% from previous +0.7% which translates to -1.9% on a year to year basis.
In response to the disappointing Euro zone data, the CHF started to appreciate against the EUR. EURCHF fell about 100 points to 1.2204 which helped to pull USDCHF back down to 0.8427.
New York session has only one significant news release. US Factory Orders for May are due at 10:00 am ET and are expected to increase sharply to 1.1% from a previous drop of -1.2%. Durable Goods released at the end of June surprised to the upside and even experienced a positive revision for the previous month. Durable goods make up more than half of factory orders so a case can be made that Factory Orders will in fact increase sharply.
Patrik Urban
Monday, July 4, 2011
FXstreet.cz - forex komentář Patrika Urbana 4.7.2011
Forex - video komentář Patrika Urbana 4.7.2011 společnosti FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem novém YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Video najdete také v našem novém YouTube kanálu zde.
Patrik Urban
Forex trader FXstreet.cz
Friday, July 1, 2011
Global Manufacturing Slowing Down; US PMI (ISM) is next
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2507
July 1, 2011 08:51 ET : GBP continues to be punished for disappointing fundamentals. Data points to global slowing of manufacturing activity. Corn futures plunge. Market turns to US Manufacturing PMI (ISM).
USD is little changed since London session opened. Most currency pairs have been trading within a narrow range with the exception of GBPUSD that dropped almost 100 points after disappointing PMI data and reached the important level 1.60 yet again.
Manufacturing activity seems to be dropping globally and in many cases prints are dangerously close to or even bellow the 50 level that indicates a contraction. Latest round of disappointments came from Spain (PMI at 47.3, lowest since 1/2010), Italy (PMI at 49.9, lowest since 10/2009), Switzerland (SVME PMI for June dropped to 53.4 from previous 59.2) and the UK (PMI in June printed 51.3 from previous 52). Even revisions of previously released data often show downward trend German PMI for June was revised to 54.6 from first estimate of 54.9. Euro zone final PMI for June stayed at 52, same as initial estimate.
Politicians mostly count on growth to repay debt incurred by governmental stimulus during recessions. It will be interesting to see social and political ramifications should the economy slip into another recession. Even the slightest change in GDP growth or the unemployment rate often causes massive disruptions in tax revenues or expenditures over a longer period of time.
Equities continue their ascend but some commodities trade heavy. Corn futures collapsed from around 650 to 580 as US farmers sharply increase acreage of planted corn. Gold trades at session lows after falling from 1514 to 1487 USD/oz over the past few sessions. Silver trades with similar price action around 33.87 USD/oz.
Due at 9:55 am ET, US final Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected at 72.1 but impact is likely to be limited as June ISM Manufacturing PMI is due only five minutes later at 10:00 am ET. Manufacturing is expected to drop from 53.5 to 51.9 which would be the weakest reading since September 2009 and not far from the critical 50 level that indicates contraction of the manufacturing sector. Peak manufacturing was recorded back in February when reading reached 61.4. Also worth looking at US May construction (seconds before ISM), expected to be flat.
Patrik Urban
July 1, 2011 08:51 ET : GBP continues to be punished for disappointing fundamentals. Data points to global slowing of manufacturing activity. Corn futures plunge. Market turns to US Manufacturing PMI (ISM).
USD is little changed since London session opened. Most currency pairs have been trading within a narrow range with the exception of GBPUSD that dropped almost 100 points after disappointing PMI data and reached the important level 1.60 yet again.
Manufacturing activity seems to be dropping globally and in many cases prints are dangerously close to or even bellow the 50 level that indicates a contraction. Latest round of disappointments came from Spain (PMI at 47.3, lowest since 1/2010), Italy (PMI at 49.9, lowest since 10/2009), Switzerland (SVME PMI for June dropped to 53.4 from previous 59.2) and the UK (PMI in June printed 51.3 from previous 52). Even revisions of previously released data often show downward trend German PMI for June was revised to 54.6 from first estimate of 54.9. Euro zone final PMI for June stayed at 52, same as initial estimate.
Politicians mostly count on growth to repay debt incurred by governmental stimulus during recessions. It will be interesting to see social and political ramifications should the economy slip into another recession. Even the slightest change in GDP growth or the unemployment rate often causes massive disruptions in tax revenues or expenditures over a longer period of time.
Equities continue their ascend but some commodities trade heavy. Corn futures collapsed from around 650 to 580 as US farmers sharply increase acreage of planted corn. Gold trades at session lows after falling from 1514 to 1487 USD/oz over the past few sessions. Silver trades with similar price action around 33.87 USD/oz.
Due at 9:55 am ET, US final Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected at 72.1 but impact is likely to be limited as June ISM Manufacturing PMI is due only five minutes later at 10:00 am ET. Manufacturing is expected to drop from 53.5 to 51.9 which would be the weakest reading since September 2009 and not far from the critical 50 level that indicates contraction of the manufacturing sector. Peak manufacturing was recorded back in February when reading reached 61.4. Also worth looking at US May construction (seconds before ISM), expected to be flat.
Patrik Urban
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